Hoosier Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 We'll see where it goes... Significant expansion of D0 in the upper Midwest on this update, with removal in the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 lol @ CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 This worries me. I'd rather have a cold and wet summer than warm/hot and dry. I hate to see plants and trees stressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 This worries me. I'd rather have a cold and wet summer than warm/hot and dry. I hate to see plants and trees stressed. I'd be concerned in the UP too, especially since it is one of the areas in the state that is still prone to forest fires as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I'd be concerned in the UP too, especially since it is one of the areas in the state that is still prone to forest fires as well. Yes exactly. One positive thing is there's 8-12" locked in the snow pack but most if that will be run off unless it's a very slow and gradual melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I was going to post this thread today actually. Its a real threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 For comparison here's where we were in 2012 around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 How much farther east will this expand in the coming season? What is our spring outlook as far as precipitation goes? 12 days into March and so far no rain, can't bode well, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 How much farther east will this expand in the coming season? What is our spring outlook as far as precipitation goes? 12 days into March and so far no rain, can't bode well, can it? CPC outlook issued in February has drought developing/expanding in the upper Midwest during Spring. Doesn't make it into the Chicago area but I imagine it's not the easiest thing to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 CPC outlook issued in February has drought developing/expanding in the upper Midwest during Spring. Doesn't make it into the Chicago area but I imagine it's not the easiest thing to forecast. Yeah, anything that involves long range forecasting has the potential to be a crapshoot. Certainly more of a drought concern than the last couple years with the wetter starts to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Not concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 A paltry 5.77" of precipitation since Nov. 1 at yyz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 Yeah, anything that involves long range forecasting has the potential to be a crapshoot. Certainly more of a drought concern than the last couple years with the wetter starts to spring. If the large scale pattern starts to support sustained ridging in this region, then things could spiral pretty quickly. But if not and it's more in the way of average to below average temps, then that would help slow things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 So far pitching a shut out for the month here, I am hoping we catch some rain tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 So far pitching a shut out for the month here, I am hoping we catch some rain tonight though. You mean a shutout on plain rain? DTW is at 0.32" precip, 2.8" snow. All frozen precip, all the first 3 days of the month. With all the constant puddles from melting snow for the last week, the pavement is so frequently wet that you dont even think of it, but a stretch like this with zero precipitation is pretty impressive. 10 days and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Only 1.09" precip so far this year here. Probably over an inch short though due to snow not entirely being accounted for. Some of it was caught and melted through the gauge. MLI and DVN both around 3" of precip, which is about an inch below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 You mean a shutout on plain rain? DTW is at 0.32" precip, 2.8" snow. All frozen precip, all the first 3 days of the month. With all the constant puddles from melting snow for the last week, the pavement is so frequently wet that you dont even think of it, but a stretch like this with zero precipitation is pretty impressive. 10 days and counting. Weird the ASOS in office says we have had nothing so far, but for some reason I forgot about last Tuesday's snow. The climate data though is correct on NWS. Either way .32" isn't much so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Weird the ASOS in office says we have had nothing so far, but for some reason I forgot about last Tuesday's snow. The climate data though is correct on NWS. Either way .32" isn't much so far. Weird that it would say that. I definitely remember because that event (snow turning to freezing rain) left one hell of an awesome and unusual looking snowpack for a good 4-5 days before the meltdown began. But other than looking pretty sweet, it wasnt exactly a storm to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 The GFS isn't predicting much precipitation for much of the subforum, especially in areas that are already drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Night and day difference here between 2012 and 2015. It was about this time in 2012 that I tilled my garden and never had to till it again the entire year. Halfway through the month this year and already close to top 10 wettest on record at LMK. Things could turn still but it will take a month or two of very little rain and above normal temps to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Night and day difference here between 2012 and 2015. It was about this time in 2012 that I tilled my garden and never had to till it again the entire year. Halfway through the month this year and already close to top 10 wettest on record at LMK. Things could turn still but it will take a month or two of very little rain and above normal temps to dry out. Yeah, quite a difference in the OV, but for the western/northwestern subforum, I think Hoosier's onto something. You guys down there should be safe for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Yeah, it's quite a difference in those areas. Storm track has been stuck here for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Substantial D1 expansion in Minnesota and into western Wisconsin My guess is that areas that go another several days without much precip could see D0 by next week, though relatively cool temps may help offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Substantial D1 expansion in Minnesota and into western Wisconsin drought.gif My guess is that areas that go another several days without much precip could see D0 by next week, though relatively cool temps may help offset. Next week finally looks like all systems go for some solid precip in the Upper Midwest and Western Lakes where we need any we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Substantial D1 expansion in Minnesota and into western Wisconsin drought.gif My guess is that areas that go another several days without much precip could see D0 by next week, though relatively cool temps may help offset. We are day #16 in a row without measurable precip, yet still have standing water in most fields from snowmelt. It'll be a while before we see drought concerns, especially if we get some precip next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Hopefully the forecast for next week pans out and we get some precip here. 0.88" YTD isn't a good pace to be setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 Some new D0 In the Great Lakes, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was introduced in southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio as well as central and northern portions of Michigan and Wisconsin. Precipitation in these locales has totaled locally less than 50 percent of normal over the past 90 days, reducing soil moisture for spring growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Some new D0 drought.gif I dont understand how this works? Do they literally go only by how much precip has fallen? The snowmelt of march for the most part took around a week. (Obviously a few parking lot piles linger, im talking the main pack). That would be the equivalent of getting about 2.5" of rain the 2nd into 3rd week of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 I dont understand how this works? Do they literally go only by how much precip has fallen? The snowmelt of march for the most part took around a week. (Obviously a few parking lot piles linger, im talking the main pack). That would be the equivalent of getting about 2.5" of rain the 2nd into 3rd week of march. Sounds like it's a bit of an art to come up with the final map. Here's some info http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I dont understand how this works? Do they literally go only by how much precip has fallen? The snowmelt of march for the most part took around a week. (Obviously a few parking lot piles linger, im talking the main pack). That would be the equivalent of getting about 2.5" of rain the 2nd into 3rd week of march. Don't think it works that way. Snowpack is precipitation that has already fallen. Its winter's contribution to soil moisture, it just hasn't made its way into the ground yet. 2.5" over the last three months or so isn't very impressive. It might melt all at once but that moisture will quickly percolate to deeper soil horizons and leave the surface dry, especially in the absence of any liquid precipitation this month. Soil moisture and consequently drought conditions are dependent on the total amount of precip that has fallen over long time scales, you need to look beyond the puddles and mud at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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