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Congratulations on #1, Boston


40/70 Benchmark

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18Z gfs likes a snowy Sunday in sne. Verbatim BOS flirts with the record.

Yeah that was a good run. It really digs the vortmax and tries to redevelop the mid level center pretty far south. That would def be accumulating snow.

Id like to see other guidance at 00z come that direction though.

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Yeah that was a good run. It really digs the vortmax and tries to redevelop the mid level center pretty far south. That would def be accumulating snow.

Id like to see other guidance at 00z come that direction though.

We've got the NAM/Rgem.GEFS/GFS..Euro suite is going to be wrong and cave. Too much going against it

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IN THE SHORTER TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE

A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY

INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BEGIN AND END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH

MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF

TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FOCUSED CLOSER TO

THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOWMELT. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORM DRAINS REMAIN

BLOCKED BY SNOW.

Temps in the low-mid 30's with icepack and snow/ice to start and end isn't going to flood anything except roads blocked by clogged snow drains

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Models are trending toward heavy elevation dependent snow in my opinion.  4-8 by Noon Sunday is a good bet.  Snow rates will decrease after that but ratios should improve.  I think 10"+ isn't out of the question at 2500-3000 feet.

 

 

18z GFS has that.  I think its too robust, as most of the other guidance has the axis of best snows further north, arcing from Montreal to north of Bangor.  But it does look like things may will just cold enough for a paste in the higher elevations.  Maybe some sleet or rain mix early in the event, but several inches looks decent for the higher elevations.  NW of here though like Pittsburgh, NH to Sugarloaf is more of a sure bet for warning criteria totals.

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Hey Guys, I'm trying to squeeze in a ski day this Saturday. Thinking Killington or Gore. (Long drive from LI) But I'd rather not ski in the rain. Do you think I'm good above 2000FT for Sat? (I don't think I can ski Sunday - other family stuff going on). I know I'd prolly have to wait for the rest of the 0z suite to come in, but any thoughts on Sat would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance!

Jason

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NAM looks awesome for the north country for Sat night and Sunday.

Only leftover SN- or flurries for SNE. It's the NAM, but I was hoping to see a bit further south for Sunday. Pretty low probability at the moment.

So for Saturday during lift operating hrs looks like a cold rain? I could deal with skiing in drizzle and mist, but skiing in a moderate rain stinks.

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It is going to rain here with maybe some mangled flakes, just can't believe we now are going to miss this storm to the north. Unbelievable very similar to last year though I have to say Euro nailed this storm.

:weenie:

how can you say that the euro nailed this storm when it hasn't even happened yet?

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