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Congratulations on #1, Boston


40/70 Benchmark

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Euro crushes Maine this weekend...away from the coast. Looks like 4-6" from my spot to Dryslot, and then increases as you go NW of there from southern Quebec through Maine with a max around a foot to the north/northwest of Bangor.

 

If we can cool it a couple tics over the next day or so on the Euro would help the totals

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Congrats Eastport it looked like

Yeah over to Eastport. It's an odd jackpot stripe haha. From Montreal to Quebec City then takes a dive SE through the heart of Maine.

Real close up here...warning criteria snows for Montreal while BTV wouldn't hit advisory level. Like you said, a couple cold ticks and we can maybe pull that zone south a bit.

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Par for the season!

 

Sloppy around PWM, I assume. Glad I'll be inland this weekend.

 

No issues where your going.....lol, Could be just like the thread title from me to you, But would not take much for it to remain mostly snow, GFS looked like it would stay frozen mainly and that is provided the Euro is right, GGEM has cooled as well over the last couple runs

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No issues where your going.....lol, Could be just like the thread title from me to you, But would not take much for it to remain mostly snow, GFS looked like it would stay frozen mainly and that is provided the Euro is right, GGEM has cooled as well over the last couple runs

That would be nice. At this point in the season it feels like the game's been decided and the starters have been pulled - time to make the final score a little more respectable.

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That would be nice. At this point in the season it feels like the game's been decided and the starters have been pulled - time to make the final score a little more respectable.

 

About sums it up, May just be able to extend the riding season locally if it pans out, Other wise its wagons north

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These past 10 days don't matter because they've always looked to suck. 95 percent imo

 

Eh, I wouldn't say they don't matter...but they are just a small percent.

 

Like for example...say BOS gets 1.6" the rest of the way and nothing this weekend. If they had gotten just a minor event this weekend (a half inch or more), then the other 1.6" added to that would have been enough to get the record. Or consider the result where BOS gets like 2.5" this weekend and then shutout the rest of the way. That 2.5" would save them.

 

Admittedly small percetanges, but they do add up.

 

 

I agree the lion's share of their probability in breaking the record has always been in the last 2 weeks of the month.

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Looks like 7-8" for SR, and 11" for Sugarloaf...then 12-15" for Jackman to Bangor. That's 10:1 ratio to QPF output.

It's got me/MVL at 5", LEW at 5", and LCI at 5".

I'll take what I can get, but once again jackpot won't be around here. Seems like the only time we're getting dumped on is when everyone else gets a good thumping (ie-noreaster). Otherwise, the tracks favor SNE, Eastern ME, mid-coast, Aroostook. Yep, I'm whining.

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Only need 2.1" to reach 100 after the predawn flurry, and 3.7" to pass 08-09 for 3rd snowiest of 17 winters here. (Reaching #2 would take another 3 feet after that.) Could I actually get more snow from this than Jeff? Would be the 1st time for a sizable snowfall since Nov. Climo flexing its muscles.

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Eh, I wouldn't say they don't matter...but they are just a small percent.

Like for example...say BOS gets 1.6" the rest of the way and nothing this weekend. If they had gotten just a minor event this weekend (a half inch or more), then the other 1.6" added to that would have been enough to get the record. Or consider the result where BOS gets like 2.5" this weekend and then shutout the rest of the way. That 2.5" would save them.

Admittedly small percetanges, but they do add up.

I agree the lion's share of their probability in breaking the record has always been in the last 2 weeks of the month.

They matter mathematically, sure .....but they don't matter to me personally whatsoever...not one bit. Period. Zero. I have no doubt that record falls.
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They matter mathematically, sure .....but they don't matter to me personally whatsoever...not one bit. Period. Zero. I have no doubt that record falls.

 

Well that's nice...but anecdotel. :lol:

 

Pattern is definitely favorable but far from a lock.

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BTV went fairly snowy for the mountains this weekend.  They've got 4-8" in the grids by Sunday morning with more occurring after that.

 

Models are trending toward heavy elevation dependent snow in my opinion.  4-8 by Noon Sunday is a good bet.  Snow rates will decrease after that but ratios should improve.  I think 10"+ isn't out of the question at 2500-3000 feet.

 

BTV's forecasts have been conservative lately in my opinion.  This one seems reasonable.

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IN THE SHORTER TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BEGIN AND END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FOCUSED CLOSER TO
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORM DRAINS REMAIN
BLOCKED BY SNOW.

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