Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Euro crushes Maine this weekend...away from the coast. Looks like 4-6" from my spot to Dryslot, and then increases as you go NW of there from southern Quebec through Maine with a max around a foot.yummmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 No way. I give BOS 70% I would have given them 85 % 10 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 yummmmmLooks like 7-8" for SR, and 11" for Sugarloaf...then 12-15" for Jackman to Bangor. That's 10:1 ratio to QPF output.It's got me/MVL at 5", LEW at 5", and LCI at 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 So no snow for me at all on Saturday...or Sunday? I was told I'm in a snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Euro crushes Maine this weekend...away from the coast. Looks like 4-6" from my spot to Dryslot, and then increases as you go NW of there from southern Quebec through Maine with a max around a foot to the north/northwest of Bangor. If we can cool it a couple tics over the next day or so on the Euro would help the totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Looks like 7-8" for SR, and 11" for Sugarloaf...then 12-15" for Jackman to Bangor. That's 10:1 ratio to QPF output. Congrats Eastport it looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Congrats Eastport it looked like Yeah over to Eastport. It's an odd jackpot stripe haha. From Montreal to Quebec City then takes a dive SE through the heart of Maine. Real close up here...warning criteria snows for Montreal while BTV wouldn't hit advisory level. Like you said, a couple cold ticks and we can maybe pull that zone south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Congrats Eastport it looked like Par for the season! Sloppy around PWM, I assume. Glad I'll be inland this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Par for the season! Sloppy around PWM, I assume. Glad I'll be inland this weekend. No issues where your going.....lol, Could be just like the thread title from me to you, But would not take much for it to remain mostly snow, GFS looked like it would stay frozen mainly and that is provided the Euro is right, GGEM has cooled as well over the last couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 I give BOS 70% I would have given them 85 % 10 days ago These past 10 days don't matter because they've always looked to suck. 95 percent imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 No issues where your going.....lol, Could be just like the thread title from me to you, But would not take much for it to remain mostly snow, GFS looked like it would stay frozen mainly and that is provided the Euro is right, GGEM has cooled as well over the last couple runs That would be nice. At this point in the season it feels like the game's been decided and the starters have been pulled - time to make the final score a little more respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 That would be nice. At this point in the season it feels like the game's been decided and the starters have been pulled - time to make the final score a little more respectable. About sums it up, May just be able to extend the riding season locally if it pans out, Other wise its wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 These past 10 days don't matter because they've always looked to suck. 95 percent imo Eh, I wouldn't say they don't matter...but they are just a small percent. Like for example...say BOS gets 1.6" the rest of the way and nothing this weekend. If they had gotten just a minor event this weekend (a half inch or more), then the other 1.6" added to that would have been enough to get the record. Or consider the result where BOS gets like 2.5" this weekend and then shutout the rest of the way. That 2.5" would save them. Admittedly small percetanges, but they do add up. I agree the lion's share of their probability in breaking the record has always been in the last 2 weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Looks like 7-8" for SR, and 11" for Sugarloaf...then 12-15" for Jackman to Bangor. That's 10:1 ratio to QPF output. It's got me/MVL at 5", LEW at 5", and LCI at 5". I'll take what I can get, but once again jackpot won't be around here. Seems like the only time we're getting dumped on is when everyone else gets a good thumping (ie-noreaster). Otherwise, the tracks favor SNE, Eastern ME, mid-coast, Aroostook. Yep, I'm whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 how much is on the ground up there?16-18 of pure glacier. It ain't melting anytime soon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Only need 2.1" to reach 100 after the predawn flurry, and 3.7" to pass 08-09 for 3rd snowiest of 17 winters here. (Reaching #2 would take another 3 feet after that.) Could I actually get more snow from this than Jeff? Would be the 1st time for a sizable snowfall since Nov. Climo flexing its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Eh, I wouldn't say they don't matter...but they are just a small percent. Like for example...say BOS gets 1.6" the rest of the way and nothing this weekend. If they had gotten just a minor event this weekend (a half inch or more), then the other 1.6" added to that would have been enough to get the record. Or consider the result where BOS gets like 2.5" this weekend and then shutout the rest of the way. That 2.5" would save them. Admittedly small percetanges, but they do add up. I agree the lion's share of their probability in breaking the record has always been in the last 2 weeks of the month. They matter mathematically, sure .....but they don't matter to me personally whatsoever...not one bit. Period. Zero. I have no doubt that record falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 They matter mathematically, sure .....but they don't matter to me personally whatsoever...not one bit. Period. Zero. I have no doubt that record falls. Well that's nice...but anecdotel. Pattern is definitely favorable but far from a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 16-18 of pure glacier. It ain't melting anytime soon. Sent from my iPhone Same, exact thing here. Down another inch today to an avg. of 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Well that's nice...but anecdotel. Pattern is definitely favorable but far from a lock. Well, I was offering an opinion, which is inherently subjective. But thanks for the semantical enlightenment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Well that's nice...but anecdotel. Pattern is definitely favorable but far from a lock. I'll throw in a dinner for you too if they don"t break 96. what do you like to eat besides s for dinner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Anyways, aside from Ray's subjective mathematics to get back on topic...the Euro ensembles look really good for NNE and maybe into CNE for this weekend. They are a bit colder than the OP it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 BTV went fairly snowy for the mountains this weekend. They've got 4-8" in the grids by Sunday morning with more occurring after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 BTV went fairly snowy for the mountains this weekend. They've got 4-8" in the grids by Sunday morning with more occurring after that. Models are trending toward heavy elevation dependent snow in my opinion. 4-8 by Noon Sunday is a good bet. Snow rates will decrease after that but ratios should improve. I think 10"+ isn't out of the question at 2500-3000 feet. BTV's forecasts have been conservative lately in my opinion. This one seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 flood watches up for a swath of real estate from Louisana to Ohio. Betting most of SNE gets one tomorrow with a inch of rain, 40-45 and melting pack, there's going to be flooding concerns in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 flood watches up for a swath of real estate from Louisana to Ohio. Betting most of SNE gets one tomorrow with a inch of rain, 40-45 and melting pack, there's going to be flooding concerns in the usual spots. http://water.weather.gov/ahps/water/textprods/view.php?wfo=box∏=ESF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 IN THE SHORTER TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFOREA STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAYINTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BEGIN AND END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW WITHMINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALFTO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FOCUSED CLOSER TOTHE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIALTHROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOWMELT. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORM DRAINS REMAINBLOCKED BY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 NAM backed off on precip totals again at 18z for all of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 18Z gfs likes a snowy Sunday in sne. Verbatim BOS flirts with the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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