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Including this event and both blizzard warnings, that would give Androscoggin County 9 warning events this winter. We have hit 5 of those, and false alarmed 4.

 

That's a false alarm rate of 44% (not good), probability of detection 100% (very good, but when you warn for everything...), and a critical success index of 56% (also not good).

I think the same rate applies to So. Franklin - 5 of 9, though I need to apologize for using the word "bust" earlier in this thread, back when I had 4" and radar upstream looked dry. Then we entered the snowglobe about noon or 12:30, and at 4 PM we'd gotten another 3", to put us into the 6-10" forecast range. So the nine WSWs would include one overperformer (Jan blizz), four in the forecast range (Nov 26-27, Jan 30-31, Feb 2, today), one slight bust (Feb 19) and three bustoramas (Nov 2, Dec 9-11, Feb 14-15) each of which verified at about 1/8 the low end of forecast range.

Ratios are a real mixed bag in this current event:

5-9P yesterday: 1.5" on 0.13" LE, for 11:1

9P-8A today: 2.5" on 0.42" LE, for 6:1

Nothing from 8A-noon (or so) today.

Noon-4P today: 3.0" on 0.10" LE for 30:1, and still -SN, probably at a lower ratio as flakes are small.

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The stuff just north of the nh border swinging in could get us halfway there.

 

That's the squall / band that the HRRR has been swinging through, should become better organized and come through around 6-ish? followed by some lighter snow for another 2 hours or so... but in the end, I doubt the refs will even have to come out and measure, doesn't happen tonight.

 

Amazing... how the heck is this at all exciting after the winter we've had lol... 

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Snowing much harder than expected here right now.  I didn't think it was possible, but it's actually starting to cover the roads and pavement that were absolutely soaked previously.  Trees and rooftops all totally covered now. 

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I think the same rate applies to So. Franklin - 5 of 9, though I need to apologize for using the word "bust" earlier in this thread, back when I had 4" and radar upstream looked dry. Then we entered the snowglobe about noon or 12:30, and at 4 PM we'd gotten another 3", to put us into the 6-10" forecast range. So the nine WSWs would include one overperformer (Jan blizz), four in the forecast range (Nov 26-27, Jan 30-31, Feb 2, today), one slight bust (Feb 19) and three bustoramas (Nov 2, Dec 9-11, Feb 14-15) each of which verified at about 1/8 the low end of forecast range.

Ratios are a real mixed bag in this current event:

5-9P yesterday: 1.5" on 0.13" LE, for 11:1

9P-8A today: 2.5" on 0.42" LE, for 6:1

Nothing from 8A-noon (or so) today.

Noon-4P today: 3.0" on 0.10" LE for 30:1, and still -SN, probably at a lower ratio as flakes are small.

 

I really don't take offense to the word bust, but I do usually try to explain our thinking. I was off for the lead up to this one, so I'm not sure what our thinking was really.

I just know we've been quick to the trigger this winter, and about half the time the guidance pulls the rug out on us as we enter the nowcast range.

 

Glad we kept the warning up for you though. Nobody likes the missed event and the false alarm at the same time.

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