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Congratulations on #1, Boston


40/70 Benchmark

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15z HRRR develops a snow squall / band from about BVY-LWM-MHT-CON around 4pm and swings this into Boston metro around 5pm

12z hi res nam really likes NE mass (esp Essex county down "about" to Bos after 3pm for a few hours. Looks like dynamic cooling down to 30f under heavy echoes this late pm and prob light accums.

Given lack of other stuff going on and how Close Bos is to record, this should be watched closely in a cpl hrs.

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Guidance for next year will be stop upgrading watches so damn early.

GYX has to be running a 33% false alarm ratio this winter. I think LEW to AUG has seen maybe 50% of our forecast snowfall this season.

It has been pretty frustrating the last month or so

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We should chase it.

 

Enjoy your snow.  Radar says I should still be snowing nicely, but precip completely stopped about 25 minutes ago and the sky has gotten really bright.   The sky has lost the smooth gray look... as if there isn't even any virga over me.   

Radar is lying here too...just spitting flakes.

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It has been pretty frustrating the last month or so

 

Including this event and both blizzard warnings, that would give Androscoggin County 9 warning events this winter. We have hit 5 of those, and false alarmed 4.

 

That's a false alarm rate of 44% (not good), probability of detection 100% (very good, but when you warn for everything...), and a critical success index of 56% (also not good).

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Including this event and both blizzard warnings, that would give Androscoggin County 9 warning events this winter. We have hit 5 of those, and false alarmed 4.

That's a false alarm rate of 44% (not good), probability of detection 100% (very good, but when you warn for everything...), and a critical success index of 56% (also not good).

We kind of got screwed on a few of these only by a few miles or so, Last night we torched mid levels so the bulk of the precip fell as rain where just to the NW of here 20 miles or so it was snow once agsin

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Not today. Maybe over next weekend.

 

Oh I know... this morning was thinking we had a 30-70 shot with the consistent RGEMs, but doubtful now as boundary layer is way too warm. More just intrigued by the squall potential at this point, and how much we can dynamically cool. The HRRRs still have a decent squall line coming through 5-6pm.

 

And for the Tippy side in me, I'm entertained by how close we can get without breaking it after multiple tries.

 

Fully expect it will be broken in the next 10 days.

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Oh I know... this morning was thinking we had a 30-70 shot with the consistent RGEMs, but doubtful now as boundary layer is way too warm. More just intrigued by the squall potential at this point, and how much we can dynamically cool. The HRRRs still have a decent squall line coming through 5-6pm.

 

And for the Tippy side in me, I'm entertained by how close we can get without breaking it after multiple tries.

 

Fully expect it will be broken in the next 10 days.

:drunk:

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We kind of got screwed on a few of these only by a few miles or so, Last night we torched mid levels so the bulk of the precip fell as rain where just to the NW of here 20 miles or so it was snow once agsin

Sent from my iPhone

 

I bet we never topped +2 here at the office aloft. The problem was a layer from the surface to 850 mb that was above freezing.

 

CAA wasn't as quick as progged either, because that layer took a long time to drop back below freezing.

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