No snow for you Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Cape looks to be 1550 median average for atl tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Looks like New Orleans is getting rocked by severe storms today and some reports of a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Naval Air Station just south of New Orleans: KNBG 271555Z 30023G43KT 1/16SM +FC OVC005CB 18/18 A2976 RMK TORNADO B44 TORNADO E44 TORNADO B48 AO2 PK WND 29043/1555 WSHFT 1532 SLP077 CONS LTGICCCCG OHD-SW-NW TS OHD-SW-NW MOV NE SVR T1 SET T01830183 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 This was a hailstone from TX, Sunday, I believe. Near Dallas , from twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Nothing like chasing waterspouts 20 miles off the nearest Parrish in LA. Probably not the best idea, but got to give him some credit for being extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Nothing like chasing waterspouts 20 miles off the nearest Parrish in LA. Probably not the best idea, but got to give him some credit for being extreme. Probably fake, not hard to fake your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Probably fake, not hard to fake your location. Haha indeed. Would be a pretty intense chase though nontheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Tornado warning hoisted here in Martin County, storm just passed over and was pretty severe, could not tell if any rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC552 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 NCZ008-009-024>026-040-041-302245-WAKE NC-VANCE NC-GRANVILLE NC-ORANGE NC-CHATHAM NC-DURHAM NC-FRANKLIN NC-552 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OFWESTERN WAKE...SOUTHERN VANCE...SOUTHERN GRANVILLE...SOUTHERNORANGE...CENTRAL CHATHAM...DURHAM AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIESUNTIL 645 PM EDT...AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM NEAR BUTNER TO 8 MILES WEST OF PITTSBORO...AND MOVINGEAST AT 15 MPH.PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHTHESE STORMS.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DURHAM...CARY...CHAPELHILL...HENDERSON...CREEDMOOR...PITTSBORO...SILERCITY...CARRBORO...JORDAN LAKE AND BUTNER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Yup getting all of that, including the hail, in downtown Durham right now. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Headed East... we're in the target zone, maybe. ...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WAKE...SOUTHEASTERN VANCE...WESTERNCUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN NASH...SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...HOKE...CENTRALJOHNSTON...FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL800 PM EDT...AT 700 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILESEAST OF KITTRELL TO NEAR SOUTHERN PINES...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20MPH.THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...RALEIGH...FAYETTEVILLE...CARY...SOUTHERN PINES...SMITHFIELD...RAEFORD...LOUISBURG...LILLINGTON...FORT BRAGG AND WAKE FOREST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Line passing through Fuquay now. Some lightening and thunder and a few gusts. No hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 IEMbot - pea sized in Garner at 7:06 ; Penny size in Durham at 6:15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Solak, the conditions are ideal for a full end to end double rainbow. Keep an eye out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Thunder, lightning, heavy rain, no hail. .25" in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Too cloudy to the West still, Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Sorry man. The conditions were perfect in Fuquay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 We finally have some t storms popping up around mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nothing so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Probably fake, not hard to fake your location. Haha indeed. Would be a pretty intense chase though nontheless. found him...his profile has this video from last year. Looks like he works on a drilling platform in the gulf, so his spotter location seems legit. http://facebook.com/marcus.toups/videos/10204095792370055/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0224 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...WRN VA...FAR SRNWV...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NC...SC...NERN GACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 111924Z - 112200ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ABROAD REGION FROM ERN TN AND WRN VA/FAR SRN WV TO PORTIONS OFCOASTAL SRN NC AND COASTAL SC.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY INASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE REGIMES:/1/ A COMPOSITE SEA-BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING INLAND ACROSSPARTS OF SC AND SRN NC.../2/ TERRAIN-ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.../3/ BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS ACIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD EDGING INTO MIDDLE TN.AIR THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSING THUSFAR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE MLCINH OWING TOSTRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYERFEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSERATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERECOLD POOLS LOCALLY AMALGAMATE -- ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL SC FROM LATERGENERATIONS OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILLLIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR RISK...COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Tomorrow looks better for some isolated severe with decent shear and cape to work with.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 found him...his profile has this video from last year. Looks like he works on a drilling platform in the gulf, so his spotter location seems legit. http://facebook.com/marcus.toups/videos/10204095792370055/ Haha dude you are the man.. That is a pretty sweet video, bet they get some wicked storms out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 WRAL still saying there is a chance of storms through midnight. Doesn't seem like anything is around, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 From WRAL: As we noted yesterday, the approach of a cold front from the west today could trigger a band or two of hit & miss storms at times between early afternoon and early evening. While not all of us will see a storm, where they do form there is a slim chance they will produce locally damaging downburst winds, moderately large hail and frequent lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 We are sitting on around 1000 SCAPE already and when the shear out west gets in here I suspect we see a bit more of a organized storm day and there will be more than just a few hit or miss severe storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 We are sitting on around 1000 SCAPE already and when the shear out west gets in here I suspect we see a bit more of a organized storm day and there will be more than just a few hit or miss severe storms.... Well, if it ends up being like it was in April, we'll have a lot of strong and severe storms around today when they say the chance is low, and then no storms at all when they say the chance is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 We're in a marginal risk area ...NC/SE VA... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY NEAR PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING MID-UPPER HEIGHT/FLOW GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRUSH THIS REGION TODAY...WHILE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS...ALL IN WEAKLY CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. IR/EARLY VIS IMAGERY INDICATE SUFFICIENT LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO SUPPORT STG SFC HEATING TODAY. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ATOP INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WITH SOME WLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF LARGE BUOYANCY...AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT/MESSY SUPERCELL MODE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Updraft Helicity and Updraft Speed probabilities for today from the 00z run. Looks like their might be a decent shot at hail along and east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 10:35AM AFD THE BEST INSTABILITY...MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WILL BEMAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE DURING THE AFT/EVE. THOUGH THE STEEPESTLAPSE RATES WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE BEST INSTABILITY...THEY WILLSTILL BE FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE EAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BELIMITED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...PRE-FRONTALTROUGH...AND MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE DUE TO THELACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THE ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW-LEVELAIRMASS INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING WILLRESULT IN RAPID LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND A TREND OF DECREASINGINSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON..THUS EXPECTLOWEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE. THE BEST CHANCE FORSEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THEAREA...EAST OF THE TRIANGLE (SEE SEVERE WX SECTION BELOW). THE FRONTSHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING BEHIND IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW50S NW TO LOW 60S SE. -RAHSEVERE WX: CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON IS ILL-DEFINED GIVENA LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR (ON THEORDER OF 20-25 KT) AND THE GRADUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER /MORESTABLE/AIRMASS FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON.GIVEN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND A VERY HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES COULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE (30-35 KT)IN THE PRESENCE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS SPANNING A GREATER VERTICAL DEPTH(0-8 KM LAYER)...HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILLINCREASINGLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THEAFOREMENTIONED DRYING OCCURS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT ANISOLD POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND/HAIL...PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THETRIANGLE. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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