metalicwx366 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Tornado watch and flash flood watc for the third time since October 25th. Radar doesn't look that good for any severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Tornado warning south of ATL with TDS on the kink of the QLCS. Watch out Fairburn, Union City, and College Park area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Tornado warning south of ATL with TDS on the kink of the QLCS. Watch out guys. Strong couplet with it now, these usually don't last long but if this one hangs out it will get into the western metro area easily.....its already over really populated areas.... gonna be just west of Hartfield airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah downeast true, hopefully this falls apart soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah this is a tornado on the ground doing damage in a heavily populated area.....not good....looked like a for sure TDS just SW of Palmetto and then it may have cycled a bit and now it looks to be strengthening again and could be a TOG at any time just SW of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah this is a tornado on the ground doing damage in a heavily populated area.....not good....looked like a for sure TDS just SW of Palmetto and then it may have cycled a bit and now it looks to be strengthening again and could be a TOG at any time just SW of the airport. Yeah I will be interested to see the reports that come out of the Palmetto area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow I really didn't expect to hear about a possible tornado west of the airport. Hope everyone is ok in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks to have become outflow dominant atm but seeing some condensed lightning NW of East Point/SW of Metro ATL so enhancement could be occuring there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 its lost the couplet for now but the area is going to go right across the heart of metro ATL.......really did look legit for a few scans there so at wouldn't be surprised to see a few touchdowns reported.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks to have become outflow dominant atm but seeing some condensed lightning NW of East Point so enhancement could be occuring there. Yeah if it cycles a new rotation there in the next 10-15 mins it could put down pretty much right in downtown ATL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah if it cycles a new rotation there in the next 10-15 mins it could put down pretty much right in downtown ATL....Yeah looks like its trying to produce a bookend vortex action. Interesting there are no reports coming out from emergency response because that looked like certain on radar.Edit: TWC reporting trees down and a tree on a house near Fairburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 looks like new couplet trying to form right over Druid Hills ( not familiar with ATL just going off names on Radarscope) but it looks like it could be the next threat in the next 5-10 mins..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 yeah its gonna need a warning soon at the rate its tightening up is about right over the Scottdale area moving NE pretty quick...... soon as I type this the next frame updates and its looks a little weaker..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah, I live in Southwest Atlanta and there was a tornado on the ground with the TVS in Palmetto. It begin to skip around between Fairburn and Union City along Roosevelt Highway (US 29) there was a brief touchdown reported in Union City prior to dissipating over Red Oak. There was a broad area of rotation as it passed over my area in the Cascade area of Atlanta proper around 5:15PM. Yes, there is a couplet as it is appearing to wrapping up again over the Stone Mountain area of Dekalb County as it heads into Gwinnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 yeah its gonna need a warning soon at the rate its tightening up is about right over the Scottdale area moving NE pretty quick...... soon as I type this the next frame updates and its looks a little weaker..... As long as it keeps that cold pool it could quickly produce a spin-up. Definitely bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah, I live in Southwest Atlanta and there was a tornado on the ground with the TVS in Palmetto. It begin to skip around between Fairburn and Union City along Roosevelt Highway (US 29) there was a brief touchdown reported in Union City prior to dissipating over Red Oak. There was a broad area of rotation as it passed over my area in the Cascade area of Atlanta proper around 5:15PM. Yes, there is a couplet as it is appearing to wrapping up again over the Stone Mountain area of Dekalb County as it heads into Gwinnett. yeah that matches up well with the radarscope data strong couplet with TVS SW of Palmetto then maybe again just west of Fairburn/Union City area of hwy 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Now, there has been reports of 2 possible tornado touchdowns with damage in Dekalb County near Scottdale/Decatur area and again in Stone Mountain per the Atlanta NWS office in Peachtree City. This is associated with the same tight couplet we have been watching for the past hour that has gone over the heart of Atlanta and continued northeast of downtown into Gwinnett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Now, there has been reports of 2 possible tornado touchdowns with damage in Dekalb County near Scottdale/Decatur area and again in Stone Mountain per the Atlanta NWS office in Peachtree City. This is associated with the same tight couplet we have been watching for the past hour that has gone over the heart of Atlanta and continued northeast of downtown into Gwinnett County. That matches up with where Downeast pointed out that the circulation had intensified. Good catch man, you sniffed out an unwarned one. I hope everyone in those areas hit are safe. Thanks for the info Kayman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Tornado watch coming shortly @iembot_gsp: #SPC issues MCD 1984 [watch prob: 80%]: EAST-CENTRAL GA/WESTERN SC https://t.co/KCAxGLOCVZ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Trees down all over where I live and no power and still pouring, 4.33 inches so far ,,amazing.. IMO, feel like ATL is ground zero for El Nino is the SE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That matches up with where Downeast pointed out that the circulation had intensified. Good catch man, you sniffed out an unwarned one. I hope everyone in those areas hit are safe. Thanks for the info Kayman. You guys are welcome! I try to keep up with what's going on the ground in this weird North Georgia weather environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/flood-watch-issued-ahead-heavy-rain-storms/npQGj/ Looks like one confirmed so far in ATL area.....SW of Palmetto I think, and that is where the strongest TDS sig was ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Look at that bow echo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Look at that bow echo... codnexlab.NEXRAD.GSP.N0Q.20151119.224.006ani.gif which one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 which one lol I was going to say the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Obviously there are a lot of caveats to this threat but the chance is there for someone to get a good storm tomorrow, also wit ha triple point a few tornados could happen if everything came together just right.... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY. ...CAROLINAS... PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH WEAKER FORCING EXPECTED TO TRAIL S ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD MIGRATE TO A POSITION FROM WRN PA...SSWWD INTO NRN GA BY 17/18Z...THEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL AID NEWD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WHILE FORECAST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE POOR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FRONTAL CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND AN EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE EVENING. GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.RAH had this to say THIS BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREATTHAT COULD UNFOLD GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW (55-65KT BULKSHEAR) AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG AND SLIGHTLY(CYCLONICALLY) CURVED HODOGRAPHS FROM TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 50KTLLJ. THE ONSET OF RAIN THURSDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE-LIKEAIRMASS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...AND SO THE ADVANCE OFTHE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED...AS IS ROUTINELY THECASE. HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWAS MUCH AS 300-600J/KG OF MUCAPE THAT IS INCREASINGLY NEAR SURFACEBASED...OWING TO GOOD DIURNAL TIMING AND A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP.FROM PAST EXPERIENCE THE SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLETHAN MANY SIMILAR EVENTS WHERE WE GET LITTLE OR NO SEVEREWEATHER...BUT THAT MAY JUST BE ANECDOTAL. SHERBS3 VALUES REACH 0.8-1FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE COLLOCATEDWITH THE WEDGE FRONT THAT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH US 1. ADD TO IT THATTHE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKINGALONG THE FRONT...AND THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT TOACCOMPANY AND GENERAL SEVERE WIND THREAT. THE MAIN LACKINGINGREDIENT MAY BE A FOCUS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING....BUT SPCHAS INCLUDED EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL RISK...FURTHER INCREASINGCONFIDENCE IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.THE KEY TO THE FAVORED AREAS MAY LIE IN HOW SOON PRECIP MOVES INTONIGHT AND THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE AIRMASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The rain in the morning will probably cut down the severe threat here like it has all year when there was talk of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Updated... ...CAROLINAS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES....ACTING TO INCREASE HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTEN THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHALLOW REMNANT CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LLJ INTENSIFIES...STRENGTHENING MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SVR THREAT IS WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL PROBS OVER THE REGION. AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NC COAST. ...SE AL/MOST OF GA/FL PANHANDLE... LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE RESULTING ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TEMPERING THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION -- I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT -- WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. HIGHEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Updated... ...CAROLINAS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES....ACTING TO INCREASE HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTEN THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHALLOW REMNANT CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LLJ INTENSIFIES...STRENGTHENING MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SVR THREAT IS WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL PROBS OVER THE REGION. AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NC COAST. ...SE AL/MOST OF GA/FL PANHANDLE... LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE RESULTING ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TEMPERING THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION -- I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT -- WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. HIGHEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS. Hmmmm talking a slight risk, haven't seen that in while if they go with the upgrade.....will be interested to read the afternoon write up from RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 A whole lot of "if's" in the AFD... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTALPLAIN.PROBLEMS OF THE DAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE WARMSECTOR IN THE EAST... AND HOW FAR NW IT CAN PENETRATE INLAND.RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ONGOINGOVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARMFRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AWAVE ALONG THE COAST (IF IT DEVELOPS THEN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BEDISRUPTED OR VERY LIMITED/CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA) THURSDAYAFTERNOON. REGARDLESS... HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WITH STRONG SURFACEBASED STABILITY WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE NW PIEDMONT ANDPOTENTIALLY DEEP INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WAVES OF RAIN AID EVAPORATIVECOOLING AND DIABATIC PROCESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURESSHOULD START AROUND 50 IN THE NW ZONES... AND MAY HOLD IN THE LOWERTO MID 50S ALL DAY.THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CAD IS PROBLEMATIC AS THE LATEST 12Z/GFSINDICATES THAT EVEN RALEIGH AND SOUTHERN PINES WILL BE ON THE COOLSTABLE SIDE OF FRONT EVEN LATE DAY... WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR LIMITEDTO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN FROM FAY TO GSB AND LATE IN THE DAY INTO THEEVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BY LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... WITH 50-55 NW TO NEAR 75 AROUNDLUMBERTON. JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE GENUINE WARM SECTOR GETSREMAINS IN FLUX WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODELS.FOR NOW IT MAY BE BEST TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING INTHE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH TO ADVERTISES THE SOUTHERN ANDEASTERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGINGWIND (AND A LOW END TORNADO RISK) THE MAJOR CONCERNS. KEEP IN MINDTHE EXTENT OR LACK THEREOF THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY NOT BEDETERMINED UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH ANDEAST THE RAIN COOLED AIR/STABILITY IN THE WEST ADVANCE... THEPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WAVE LATER IN THE DAY ANDTHURSDAY EVENING (CENTRAL OR COASTAL NC)... AND TIMING OF THE COLDFRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE WEAK COASTAL WAVE LATER TONIGHT ANDEARLY THURSDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWLEVEL JET AND WARM SECTOR TIMING DURING THE EVENT THURSDAY.REGARDLESS... THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS STRONG AND THE SWFLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY WITH THEAPPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENSUE. STRONGKINEMATIC FIELDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION... LEAVING THE KEY TOTHE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FEATURES.RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE NW WITH SHOWERS SE... AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS SELATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY RAIN WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITHLINGERING LOW CLOUDS... DRIZZLE... AND FOG (POSSIBLY A DENSE FOGEVENT AGAIN THUR NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY).THIS IS A FLUID SITUATION AND ONE THAT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. SURFACELOW TRACKS ALONG THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARIES (TMB) ON THE SOUTH ANDEAST SIDE OF PIEDMONT COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) RESUMES OFTEN BRINGSEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE FALL AND SPRING SEVERE WEATHERSEASONS. JUST BECAUSE IT IS DECEMBER... WE CAN NOT TAKE OUR GUARDDOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SE ZONES THIS TIMEOUT.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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