Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 No not really and again if anything its better than ever before....you just focus on the times it doesn't happen, there has always been a acknowledged chance this wouldn't be a severe event here, but if it did all come together it would have been extremely severe, that's why they went enhanced. Getting put under a slight or enhanced risk just means when/if they do happen there is a higher probability they will be severe. You also do not need a increased risk from SPC to get severe weather. There is enough cape over central and eastern NC that it would not surprise me to see this line come back to life a bit as it comes through...... My point is it hasn't happened a lot the last two years, especially times when there has been a lot of talk of having severe storms in advance. The same thing happened last year. It had been more difficult and off than usual. I kmow what you are saying about if everything came together it would be severe. The thing is for some reason everything has not come together a lot of times the last two years when there has been talk about it happening. I am used to that with snow here, but it has been happening most of time with storms here the past two years, too. It has just been off for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Number one should be living in the Carolinas. As an amateur weather enthusiast, I have come to the conclusion that NC has somewhat blah weather. Obviously we don't get very cold in the winter, We are hot in the summer, but not really excessively so. Our record high is a "mere" 110 F (in Fayetteville, my birthplace), which is exceeded by Pennsylvania (111 F) and West Virginia (112 F) of all places. To say nothing of the midwest. Of course on the other hand, boring weather is generally gentler on the human lifestyle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 It didn't used to be this bad, though. Something has just been way off this year and last year. Confirmation bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Unbelievable storm here. Had to have been some 60-70mph gusts as the line rolled through. I've never seen it get as windy as it did and you could hear the trees cracking in the woods. Tons of lightning as well. Power is out now so that sucks but wow was it fun (and kinda scary) to watch. Haven't been on in awhile I hope everyone is doing well! God bless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 As an amateur weather enthusiast, I have come to the conclusion that NC has somewhat blah weather. Obviously we don't get very cold in the winter, We are hot in the summer, but not really excessively so. Our record high is a "mere" 110 F (in Fayetteville, my birthplace), which is exceeded by Pennsylvania (111 F) and West Virginia (112 F) of all places. To say nothing of the midwest. Of course on the other hand, boring weather is generally gentler on the human lifestyle. SC weather is even more boring than NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 My point is it hasn't happened a lot the last two years, especially times when there has been a lot of talk of having severe storms in advance. The same thing happened last year. It had been more difficult and off than usual. I kmow what you are saying about if everything came together it would be severe. The thing is for some reason everything has not come together a lot of times the last two years when there has been talk about it happening. I am used to that with snow here, but it has been happening most of time with storms here the past two years, too. It has just been off for some reason. Until someone starts tracking severe weather bust statistics, I guess we'll just have to wonder who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 SC weather is even more boring than NC. Well, your record high is 111F, so you can lord it over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Until someone starts tracking severe weather bust statistics, I guess we'll just have to wonder who is right. Just based on memory and things I have looked back on with the local media, this board, and facebook, plus RAH even saying we have had fewer severe events this year than previous years, this year and last year have had a lot more busts than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 MCS seems to be holding its own for now, at least the western part. We'll see if it can make it through the mountains. Mucape is back down to 1000 now, but dcape has crept up a little more to 1000 over mby. This is borderline if I'm going to stay up for this or not. Not really in the mood to lose sleep over sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Well, your record high is 113F, so you can lord it over us. Extreme heat does not excite me one bit. FYP. Downtown Columbia hit 113 on June 30 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Extreme heat does not excite me one bit. FYP. Downtown Columbia hit 113 on June 30 2012. Whoops. I was getting my info from my beloved copy of Extreme Weather by Christopher Burt. So you can lord it over us even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The line is completely disintegrated in the east now. I was really hoping for some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Once again no storms at all yesterday after all the talk of a widespread severe event in NC. The models have become just as bad with forecasting storms as they have with snow here. Seems the only thing they can get right now is when it is sunny and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Once again no storms at all yesterday after all the talk of a widespread severe event in NC. The models have become just as bad with forecasting storms as they have with snow here. Seems the only thing they can get right now is when it is sunny and dry. Again you are ignoring stuff like this...that came out well ahead of the "bust" IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MINIMUM OF MEAN RH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH DRY AIR SPREADING EAST AND OVERTAKING THE AREA. THE DRYING ALOFT COULD GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT" OVER THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL KINEMATICS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE ALOFT...SPCS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IS WELL WARRANTED. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR AND STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. They flat out say there are signs that this might not happen, but with the other parameters if it did happen it would have been severe.....those same models that you claim are so bad where actually right on the money...the forecast for keeping the storms was based on shear that ended up being well lower than forecast and not enough to refire the line after dark, had the timing been 8 hrs faster with the Ohio MCS or just a few hrs faster with the first one then chances are very good there would have been a severe MCS in NC...it didn't happen that way though and the models spelled that out that probability pretty well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Once again no storms at all yesterday after all the talk of a widespread severe event in NC. The models have become just as bad with forecasting storms as they have with snow here. Seems the only thing they can get right now is when it is sunny and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Again you are ignoring stuff like this...that came out well ahead of the "bust" IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MINIMUM OF MEAN RH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH DRY AIR SPREADING EAST AND OVERTAKING THE AREA. THE DRYING ALOFT COULD GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT" OVER THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL KINEMATICS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE ALOFT...SPCS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IS WELL WARRANTED. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR AND STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. They flat out say there are signs that this might not happen, but with the other parameters if it did happen it would have been severe.....those same models that you claim are so bad where actually right on the money...the forecast for keeping the storms was based on shear that ended up being well lower than forecast and not enough to refire the line after dark, had the timing been 8 hrs faster with the Ohio MCS or just a few hrs faster with the first one then chances are very good there would have been a severe MCS in NC...it didn't happen that way though and the models spelled that out that probability pretty well.... So there maybe could be, possibly, a chance of storms if this and that happen. Sounds just like it is with snow around here. What actually will happen is anyone's guess. My point it this scenario has happened a lot the last two years, when a chance of severe storms was talked up a lot, and then nothing at all happens. It is just bizarre to me that this has happened so much the last two years. People are going to start thinking the mets are crying wolf if they talk a lot about the chance for severe storms and then nothing at all happens. I know, I know, it is just a chance. But to talk so much about it being a widespread severe event to nothing at all, and for it to happen so many times the last two years, is just crazy. I know when this happened one time earlier this year even Greg Fishel expressed frustration about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 So there maybe could be, possibly, a chance of storms if this and that happen. Sounds just like it is with snow around here. What actually will happen is anyone's guess. My point it this scenario has happened a lot the last two years, when a chance of severe storms was talked up a lot, and then nothing at all happens. It is just bizarre to me that this has happened so much the last two years. People are going to start thinking the mets are crying wolf if they talk a lot about the chance for severe storms and then nothing at all happens. I know, I know, it is just a chance. But to talk so much about it being a widespread severe event to nothing at all, and for it to happen so many times the last two years, is just crazy. I know when this happened one time earlier this year even Greg Fishel expressed frustration about it. I've repeatedly tried to get you to stop this constant criticism of NWS and SPC . Several people here have tried to explain things to you, yet you just continue to harp on it. While we try to be lenient here, especially during slow times, criticisms of NWS and SPC need to be backed up with data. You have presented none. The only thing you have mentioned is what happens in your backyard. So I guess it is time for another approach. Stop this. There are at least two main differences between you and Greg Fishel. He doesn't keep on repeating this day after day and I can't five post Fishel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 As an amateur weather enthusiast, I have come to the conclusion that NC has somewhat blah weather. Obviously we don't get very cold in the winter, We are hot in the summer, but not really excessively so. Our record high is a "mere" 110 F (in Fayetteville, my birthplace), which is exceeded by Pennsylvania (111 F) and West Virginia (112 F) of all places. To say nothing of the midwest. Of course on the other hand, boring weather is generally gentler on the human lifestyle. How on earth did WV get hotter than NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Once again no storms at all yesterday after all the talk of a widespread severe event in NC. The models have become just as bad with forecasting storms as they have with snow here. Seems the only thing they can get right now is when it is sunny and dry. Because its more fun having to repair or replace your property destroyed by severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Unbelievable storm here. Had to have been some 60-70mph gusts as the line rolled through. I've never seen it get as windy as it did and you could hear the trees cracking in the woods. Tons of lightning as well. Power is out now so that sucks but wow was it fun (and kinda scary) to watch. Haven't been on in awhile I hope everyone is doing well! God bless! Awesome storms yesterday in our area. That line formed in northern TN and just went on a rampage SSE ward. Kept going all the way down into FL. Sweet baby Jesus it was a good severe wx day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATESATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDSWILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. We went from no chance to 20% storms yesterday, and this morning its up to 40% for MBY.... HRRR looks ok several clusters forming on it in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 We went from no chance to 20% storms yesterday, and this morning its up to 40% for MBY.... HRRR looks ok several clusters forming on it in NC Same here... surprised to see that our chances have increased as well. Hope it comes to pass, because we all need some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Pulsey severe very likely today, if they get high enough there is a shot at some decent hail too.....HRRR had the broken line forming in the lee trough and keeps it together all the way to the coast this morning and so far it looks pretty close....wouldn't be surprised to see thunderstorm warnings flying here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Heads up, Iso........... 1252 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONSOF PERSON...DURHAM...ORANGE AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PMEDT...AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ANAREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PROSPECT HILL...MOVINGSOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...ROXBORO...HILLSBOROUGH...CREEDMOOR...CARRBORO...BUTNER...ROUGEMONT AND CONCORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Line looks way better organized than it should given the lack of shear, but there is no cap and really good surface and mid cape so its gonna go big for the Triangle....its peak heating etc everything came together just right...I imagine Iso got hammered and will have a good report if he was in the area when it hit.....and then all the other Triangle folks should get hammered, ridiculous lightning with this line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Poor Brick... is he still in Wake Forest ---- or Myrtle Beach? Severe thunderstorm warning continues for Granville, NW Wake, and Durham Counties until 2:30pm. Damaging winds and a LOT of lighting with these as they move SE @25mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Southern part starting to flare up so maybe Cold Rain and Solak can get lucky, also the greater Charlotte area getting nailed right now, some hail there with that one core just N and NE of downtown I bet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Mesoscale Discussion 1465 [an error occurred while processing this directive] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 181805Z - 182000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL /POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER/ AND ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE ANEMIC DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM THREAT. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS STEMMING FROM WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS. WHAT LITTLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THERE IS HAS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF/PULSATING NATURE OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES...A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Southern part starting to flare up so maybe Cold Rain and Solak can get lucky, also the greater Charlotte area getting nailed right now, some hail there with that one core just N and NE of downtown I bet.... Just got to Burlington and went through a shower on the way. Looks like I'm out on this one unless we get some development out this way later. Sure is hot and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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