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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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RAH throws in the towel...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY.....SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMOVED...IT APPEARS THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH NIGHTFALL WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUPPORTATIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/NC INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT. THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA AND THIS IS WHERE THE LINE WAS REFIRING AND HEADED TOWARD RICHMOND. WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE NW-NE PIEDMONT AND FAR NE ZONES OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS 68-73. 
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According to HRRR it should start to fall apart right about now.  I'm doubting it does, at least initially.  Mucape has increased to 2000 and dcape to between 900 and 1000.  0-6 shear still at 30 kts.  If it can survive its trips through the mountains, upstate may have a shot.  There is a lot more development west than I thought would happen.  Initially it looked like it was heading straight for central NC.

Looks a good bit farther west than progged. Wondering if RDU will end up being too far east,

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RAH throws in the towel...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY.....SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMOVED...IT APPEARS THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH NIGHTFALL WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUPPORTATIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/NC INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT. THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA AND THIS IS WHERE THE LINE WAS REFIRING AND HEADED TOWARD RICHMOND. WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE NW-NE PIEDMONT AND FAR NE ZONES OF THE COASTAL PLAIN... OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS 68-73. 

Is it just me, or has the eastern part of NC been under a good bit of convective inhibition lately?

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Stick a fork in this one, Brick. Yet another bustola after being forecast for 3 days in advance. We'll be lucky to see clouds from this one.

Seriously, it has been awful the past couple of years. Everything just seems up in the air and anyone's guess as to what will really happen when it comes to storms here. It has gone both ways, but most of time ends up being a bust more than a surprise. Just like it is with snow here.

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Seriously, it has been awful the past couple of years. Everything just seems up in the air and anyone's guess as to what will really happen when it comes to storms here. It has gone both ways, but most of time ends up being a bust more than a surprise. Just like it is with snow here.

It really is a shame that the best technology we have available to forecast weather is often no better than looking out the window.

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SPC saying one thing, and RAH and the local forecasters saying another. I know nothing is set in stone, but forecasting storms for this area didn't used to be so back and forth and end up being the exact opposite of what the forecasters thought would happen as it has been the past couple of years.

 

Nothing has changes its always like that here, especially in the summertime when dealing with MCS.....they have nailed this thing so far you just ALWAYS focus on the and or part. The reason it is more back and forth is the tools are better and they can make more detailed forecast but even then its not close to perfect....

 

Your problem is when they say "IF we get good heating then there will be a good chance of severe storms" all you see is "good chance of severe storms". They have from the beginning of this event put numerous "buts" and "ifs" and no one should be surprised it has turned out the way it has. They have forecasted the timing and locations of the MCS well but always said the severe part depended on several factors.

 

I am surprised the line cant do more with what is available here I am not sure what it is that is preventing it from going, it just goes to show that even with all the tools they have now its still hard to guess which set of parameters are going to matter the most....the other morning we woke up to storms with way less cape/shear and just as much CIN as we have now.

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Nothing has changes its always like that here, especially in the summertime when dealing with MCS.....they have nailed this thing so far you just ALWAYS focus on the and or part. The reason it is more back and forth is the tools are better and they can make more detailed forecast but even then its not close to perfect....

Your problem is when they say "IF we get good heating then there will be a good chance of severe storms" all you see is "good chance of severe storms". They have from the beginning of this event put numerous "buts" and "ifs" and no one should be surprised it has turned out the way it has. They have forecasted the timing and locations of the MCS well but always said the severe part depended on several factors.

I am surprised the line cant do more with what is available here I am not sure what it is that is preventing it from going, it just goes to show that even with all the tools they have now its still hard to guess which set of parameters are going to matter the most....the other morning we woke up to storms with way less cape/shear and just as much CIN as we have now.

Then they must have just had a lot of bad luck the last two years, or something has been throwing a wrench in the system, because the forecasts for storms have been way off a lot more than usual the last two years.
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SPC saying one thing, and RAH and the local forecasters saying another. I know nothing is set in stone, but forecasting storms for this area didn't used to be so back and forth and end up being the exact opposite of what the forecasters thought would happen as it has been the past couple of years.

 

No they are not.  The difference between the two lies in your reading comprehension.

 

 

SPC says intensifying ...

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN VA MOUNTAINS...WITH OTHER   RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF LINEARLY ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN   VA IN AREAS NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 915 PM EDT/0115Z.   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE   ACROSS FAR WESTERN VA INTO NORTHWEST NC...BUT A GENERAL TREND OF   WEAKER NEAR-SURFACE GUSTS SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS   GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM   GREENSBORO NC...WHICH REFLECTED RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE/AMPLE   INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL VA AS A   RESIDUAL COLD POOL INTERCEPTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS   MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA TO NEARBY INTERIOR MD.

 

BUT A GENERAL TREND OF

WEAKER NEAR-SURFACE GUSTS SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS

GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM

GREENSBORO NC.

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Then they must have just had a lot of bad luck the last two years, or something has been throwing a wrench in the system, because the forecasts for storms have been way off a lot more than usual the last two years.

I would be really interested to see some statistics on this.

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Should always make a mental checklist of things that can go wrong (snow or storms).  At least one of those things on the checklist will always happen here.  In the summer it is usually cloud cover.  In winter it is usually warmer than modeled temps or clouds rolling in at the wrong time.

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On the other hand, it's not very often that we get locked in to a NW flow like we have so often this summer. We've become accustomed to the Bermuda High, a SW flow with Gulf moisture, probably as long as most of us have been following weather. The 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms are much easier to predict under a 'typical' summer pattern. This summer has been far from typical for the Southeast, so far.

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I would be really interested to see some statistics on this.

I don't really disagree with Brick here. It does seem like there has been more difficulty with forecasting summer storms/rain events, over the past couple of years. I don't know if statistical evidence would bear that out or if it would refute it. It just seems like it's been harder to forecast these things. I wonder if it has to do with the changes made to the GFS and Euro models.

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Should always make a mental checklist of things that can go wrong (snow or storms).  At least one of those things on the checklist will always happen here.  In the summer it is usually cloud cover.  In winter it is usually warmer than modeled temps or clouds rolling in at the wrong time.

Number one should be living in the Carolinas.

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On the other hand, it's not very often that we get locked in to a NW flow like we have so often this summer. We've become accustomed to the Bermuda High, a SW flow with Gulf moisture, probably as long as most of us have been following weather. The 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms are much easier to predict under a 'typical' summer pattern. This summer has been far from typical for the Southeast, so far.

This feeds into a question that I have been wanting to ask.  So obviously having a ridge overhead is not conducive to plentiful rainfall.  If the ridge shifts off to the west and the SE is in NW flow, it certainly isn't as hot, and there are some MS that flow around the ridge, but the NW really isn't all that wet either.  So what pattern do you need in NC to get healthy rainfall?  A big high off to the east?

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Then they must have just had a lot of bad luck the last two years, or something has been throwing a wrench in the system, because the forecasts for storms have been way off a lot more than usual the last two years.

 

No not really and again if anything its better than ever before....you just focus on the times it doesn't happen, there has always been a acknowledged chance this wouldn't be a severe event here, but if it did all come together it would have been extremely severe, that's why they went enhanced. Getting put under a slight or enhanced risk just means when/if they do happen there is a higher probability they will be severe. You also do not need a increased risk from SPC to get severe weather.

 

There is enough cape over central and eastern NC that it would not surprise me to see this line come back to life a bit as it comes through......

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On the other hand, it's not very often that we get locked in to a NW flow like we have so often this summer. We've become accustomed to the Bermuda High, a SW flow with Gulf moisture, probably as long as most of us have been following weather. The 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms are much easier to predict under a 'typical' summer pattern. This summer has been far from typical for the Southeast, so far.

Where the heck is the Bermuda high been this summer?

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This feeds into a question that I have been wanting to ask.  So obviously having a ridge overhead is not conducive to plentiful rainfall.  If the ridge shifts off to the west and the SE is in NW flow, it certainly isn't as hot, and there are some MS that flow around the ridge, but the NW really isn't all that wet either.  So what pattern do you need in NC to get healthy rainfall?  A big high off to the east?

You need a properly placed Bermuda high off the coast. That brings a SW flow off the Gulf of Mexico into the SE. 

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