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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Well, slightly better parameters.  Sbcape is still just 500, mucape has increased to 1000, and dcape has increased to 1300.  Still loads of CIN though.  I doubt I'll see anything from this current line besides maybe a shower.  The short term models seems like they want to make the MCS fall apart, but it looks pretty healthy on radar.  From the looks of the MCS currently, I think I will be on the outside looking in.  Prob going to be a bit too far west to have any major impact.  If it holds, I think Charlotte and east will be the ones to have the most impact from it.

 

The eastern part of the line in TN right now seems to be moving south, while the western part of it has a more easterly component.  It looks like it is trying to form a new line that will move in a more SE direction.

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I'm going to throw in the towel on this one. Instability is terrible and isn't going to improve much from here on out. Skies finally clear at the end of the day. No development anywhere in sight. The complex moving SE out of OH, should provide a few sprinkles by midnight, but that's about it.

We have seen this story too many times the last two years.

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Yeah, you gotta be quick on the draw to beat a Brick poo poo post. Yeah, I'm not seeing much that's going to have an impact any time soon. Not sure what WRAL is thinking. And yay for NW flow another nighttime weakening MCS!!

FYP    :P 

 

Looks like all the good stuff is going to stay west of SC/NC.  NAM and HRRR supports this.  Instability is still crap thanks to the 0.02" of rain and clouds I had all morning.

 

NW flow very rarely works out for this area   :(      

 

69 days, 1 hr, 29 minutes until the start of fall   :D  

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Looks like SPC thinks everything is going to be to the north of here now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md1419.html

 

Those are time sensitive and that area being highlighted in no way implies anything for us.....if 2-3 hrs from now the MCS is still going and the parameters suggest it I am sure they will issue a MD for our area....that line will most likely NOT make it over the mts very strong but once it gets east it should begin to tap into the instability again and fire back up.

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Those are time sensitive and that area being highlighted in no way implies anything for us.....if 2-3 hrs from now the MCS is still going and the parameters suggest it I am sure they will issue a MD for our area....that line will most likely NOT make it over the mts very strong but once it gets east it should begin to tap into the instability again and fire back up.

We'll see. A watch is out now for a few of the counties on the VA border. Maybe that is a good thing with the way things have gone this year.

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That MCS is looking pretty good for now.  Expanding some westward and is moving a little more southward than I expected it would.  Still doubt I'll see anything significant though because of low cape, but who knows, maybe the little bit we have will be enough.  HRRR has it falling apart completely once entering NC.

 

Edit:  Some pretty impressive wind gusts from this shower that is moving through.  Prob some 40-45 mph gusts in the tree tops.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC812 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015SCZ002-003-005>007-010-012-150115-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-LAURENS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN...ROCKY BOTTOM...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE...MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...LAURENS...CLINTON812 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015...VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SC...VERY GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 25CORRIDOR IN THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS HAVEDEVELOPED BETWEEN A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH ATHUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWERPRESSURE IN THE GREENVILLE AREA. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILLBE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM ALONG AND NEAR A CORRIDOR FROMLAURENS TO GREENVILLE. A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES COULD FALLTHROUGHOUT THIS AREA.$$LANE

Winds have been crazy the last hour.  Have some broken tree branches laying in the yard now.  Luckily no power loss yet.

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Latest from RAH

INTERESTINGLY... EVEN AS THE LINE WAS ONLY 2-3 HOURS FROM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING A PORTION OF OUR REGION... MANY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE ARW AND HRRR WERE FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE MCS TO DIVE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARD BOONE/BRISTOL/TRI CITIES AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FELT THAT THE LINE WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE AND EITHER MAINTAIN ITSELF OR WEAKEN... THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT HITS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE VA/FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS PLACED AS FAR SOUTH AS MOUNT AIRY AND YANCEYVILLE THROUGH 100 AM. JUST AS IN THE PREVIOUS NW FLOW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND LINES THAT HAVE AFFECTED OUR REGION - IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE NOWCAST RATHER THAN FORECAST AS TO THE HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. AT THE CURRENT TIME IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PIEDMONT FROM THE TRIAD TO ROXBORO TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TRIANGLE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 900 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING AND THE CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL THE THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM DIMINISHES OR PASSES. IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AND WEST (WHERE THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MUCH LOWER) - DUE TO SOME NEGATIVE RESIDUAL AFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT PASSED BY THIS MORNING AND THE CURRENT ONE THAT BRUSHED BY TO THE WEST OF ASHEVILLE. 
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Of course it nowcast time. Have to wait and see how the system interacts with the mountains, if it breaks apart, reforms, interaction with outflows, a myriad of things. Never have I heard anyone say that weather was exact or precise.

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This has been an awesome line. Beautiful long streaking lightning with moderate rain currently. but the main story is the wind. High wind reports all over the place and indeed I had one of the longest duration high wind storm events I can recall having in some time. Winds were at are above 40mph for about 10 to 15 solid minutes with several gusts into the 55mph range with a Top gust of 62mph. At tree top level though it had to be close to 70. Strong enough that i was really concerned about the trees. Fortunately the ice storm took out much of the weak ones so only a few limps broke. I feel fortunate though. Surprised it lasted so long considering how damn fast the storms were moving. i figured the entire wind/storm/rain wouldn't last even 15 minutes but it slowed down a lot after zooming southward at 60mph initially.

 

It's really rare to get severe storms moving due south like this here but when they do happen they are almost always severe. Compounding the impact is the fact I have a large field, road, then another large field to my north so when winds are out of the north they really can get strong. 

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SPC says intensifying ...

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN VA MOUNTAINS...WITH OTHER   RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF LINEARLY ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN   VA IN AREAS NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 915 PM EDT/0115Z.   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE   ACROSS FAR WESTERN VA INTO NORTHWEST NC...BUT A GENERAL TREND OF   WEAKER NEAR-SURFACE GUSTS SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS   GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM   GREENSBORO NC...WHICH REFLECTED RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE/AMPLE   INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL VA AS A   RESIDUAL COLD POOL INTERCEPTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS   MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA TO NEARBY INTERIOR MD.
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According to HRRR it should start to fall apart right about now.  I'm doubting it does, at least initially.  Mucape has increased to 2000 and dcape to between 900 and 1000.  0-6 shear still at 30 kts.  If it can survive its trip through the mountains, upstate may have a shot.  There is a lot more development west than I thought would happen.  Initially it looked like it was heading straight for central NC.

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