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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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73.9° in Spartanburg. Instability is abysmal right now. This better clear in a hurry if we have any shot at all for storms later. Not looking good. The only positive is 0-6 shear being 30 kts right now.

Evaporative cooling from 23 raindrops , has dropped me 3 degrees , to a comfy 81! Mid 90s forecast today, looks a little busty!
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Going to be interesting to see how today plays out, instability much lower overall than progged so wouldn't be surprised to see them back off the enhanced risk....but then again if things came together right we are plenty unstable enough now to support severe weather. The MCS forming in Ohio dropping south is IMO the best chance of a widespread severe event in central and eastern NC...its much further east than the previous ones and should drop down east of the MTS for the most part.....its also 8-10 hrs away at least for most of us.

 

The clouds over central and eastern NC are really badly timed lol its whats left of that earlier MCS but if you watch this loop there is good clearing behind it and its progressing east quickly so we will get scape to around 3000 if we are lucky and with the shear out in west NC slipping east I wouldn't be surprised to see some discrete cells fire especially in the southern half of NC from Charlotte over to Fayetteville....also with the sun the lee trough should begin forming so west of the Triad maybe as well.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/flash-vis.html

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Storms going tornadic in TN, heading torwards NC mtns!

 

That area really primed for tornados right now I would suspect any couplet on radar to be producing shear and other parameters for tornados are very high in north central Tenn right now....

 

Edit to add that NC isn't that bad either if we do get some discrete supercells they will spin up and some tornados maybe even strong ones are possible...

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Sunny now and up to 86°.  Instability recovering a little bit, but still not good by any means.  Those storms across the entire state of TN are blowing up pretty good now.  Interested to see how much we can get our cape up too with not much time left in the day.

TN is getting some serious storms for sure. Will be interesting to see how long that line holds together once it heads towards GA and the Carolinas.

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SPC removed the enhanced risk from the area now.  Finally heating up outside.  88 at RDU at 4:00 pm.

 

Its all about the timing, I tired to beat Bricks poo poo post but I see that I failed......

 

Instability out west where the lee trough is trying to setup is crap so I wonder if this sun is enough this late to get the storms kicked off, if not then the MCS in Ohio will be about our only chance and it will be much later this evening....we could see something fire along the lee trough and move east in the next hr or two as that impulse eases over the mts better.....and the sea breeze might save some coastal folks

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Its all about the timing, I tired to beat Bricks poo poo post but I see that I failed......

Instability out west where the lee trough is trying to setup is crap so I wonder if this sun is enough this late to get the storms kicked off, if not then the MCS in Ohio will be about our only chance and it will be much later this evening....we could see something fire along the lee trough and move east in the next hr or two as that impulse eases over the mts better.....and the sea breeze might save some coastal folks

Yeah, you gotta be quick on the draw to beat a Brick poo poo post. Yeah, I'm not seeing much that's going to have an impact any time soon. Not sure what WRAL is thinking. And yay for another nighttime weakening MCS!!

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Yeah, you gotta be quick on the draw to beat a Brick poo poo post. Yeah, I'm not seeing much that's going to have an impact any time soon. Not sure what WRAL is thinking. And yay for another nighttime weakening MCS!!

 

All the CIN finally gone at the surface over eastern NC still some over the rest of the state, might be to little to late, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the MCS over Ohio sometimes those systems do a lot with a little and with the LLJ we should have over us even a weaker line might be able to get 40-60 mph winds to the surface.

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I'm going to throw in the towel on this one.  Instability is terrible and isn't going to improve much from here on out.  Skies finally clear at the end of the day.  No development anywhere in sight.  The complex moving SE out of OH, should provide a few sprinkles by midnight, but that's about it.

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All the CIN finally gone at the surface over eastern NC still some over the rest of the state, might be to little to late, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the MCS over Ohio sometimes those systems do a lot with a little and with the LLJ we should have over us even a weaker line might be able to get 40-60 mph winds to the surface.

 

Just posted right after you (didn't know you were posting!).  In the winter, we don't usually have much in the way of instability, but we often get strong shear and end up with a decent wind event.  Maybe this will be one of those times....although I'm not counting on it.

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Let's see if Blaes knows what he's talking about (portion of the RAH discussion):

 

THE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS NOTICEABLY
THINNED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
AROUND 500 J/KG DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
WHILE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH TIER OF
CENTRAL NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED ACROSS WESTERN NC
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NOW RANGE BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. A
DEVELOPING MCS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN OH AS OF 19Z. THE MCS
WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS WV AND VA BEFORE REACHING
NW NC AROUND 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE
TOWARD OUR REGION IS RATHER HIGH BUT MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV WHICH MOVE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
23-03Z IN THE TRIAD...00-06Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND 02-08Z IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS TONIGHT AS A 50+KT MID
LEVEL JET MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. WIND PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
THIS EVENING WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20KTS. THIS WIND FIELD IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THAT NOTED...A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. IF THIS CONVECTION REACHES CENTRAL NC...THE
WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO
LOWER 70S. -BLAES
 

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