Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 THE 50-60KT UPPER LEVEL JETS STREAK ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS OF GRAVE CONCERN...WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND STRONGLY CURVED CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WEST AND TUESDAY EVENING/ NIGHT IN THE EAST IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SPC NOW HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING AREA OF RAIN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER EARLY TUESDAY...BUT IF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL NC COULD BE LOOKING OUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS POSSIBLE FROM SRN VA INTO NC THAT COULD EXTEND WAY PAST THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IS THE GREATEST THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN HARNETT COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 815 AM EDT * AT 721 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GARNER...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RALEIGH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SMITHFIELD...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...CLAYTON...ANGIER...BENSON... MICRO...SELMA...COATS AND FOUR OAKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Impressive.... .73" in 25 minutes.... and that's from a non-warned storm. Picked up .12" earlier this morning, and the warned and larger storm hasn't gotten here yet. Yard will be more soggy in a couple hours. In a break between storms right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nothing severe here, but over in Garner, a tree down on a house, and a barn totally engulfed from lightning strike. We picked up another .40" with round 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Had a shower at the house and heard some thunder around 4:45 this morning. That was it. Saw some lightning to the south of Raleigh driving into work this morning. They are really talking up Tuesday. Of course, like they said the cloud cover could keep things more stable. I think that is what happened the last time they really talked up a widespread severe threat for NC, and there were not any storms at all that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Awesome Storm this morning. Lots of rain and lightening again. Nothing severe in my area, even though it was warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Tornado warning for Sampson County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 WRAL saying we could have more storms this afternoon, a round early tomorrow morning like we had this morning, and then the main severe threat tomorrow afternoon and night. The funny thing is their in-house Futurecast doesn't show any storms at all for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 My sister in law and her family are on I-40 in Burgaw right in the path of this storm. Told them to step it up and get ahead of the storm as quick as they could. They were right in the path so it was either drive faster or turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Couplet west of Burgaw is legit, wouldn't be surprised if their hasn't been a TOG with it a few times......holding up too been solid for a while now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 My sister in law and her family are on I-40 in Burgaw right in the path of this storm. Told them to step it up and get ahead of the storm as quick as they could. They were right in the path so it was either drive faster or turnaround. Should have told them to stay put its moving SE and will pass well south of Burgaw.....if it even gets to I 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 CAPE is a lot more impressive today than yesterday. There is a pocket of 6000 sbcape off the coast of SC. Dcape is also a lot better in the upstate of SC than yesterday. There are some lingering clouds, but the sun has been out for the most part. Hoping to get in on a little action at least for the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Should have told them to stay put its moving SE and will pass well south of Burgaw.....if it even gets to I 40 Or it could cycle and reform right over Burgaw geez....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Or it could cycle and reform right over Burgaw geez....... Yeah they were able to get way out in front and beat the storm. She said it was really black as the storm passed behind them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 They never warned it again but several times it had a strong couplet so not sure why they never reissued it or the NWS page just isn't updating good at work and they did. Be interesting to see if we can get the sun to come out and if it does what happens, RAH sector vis loop shows clearing just west of Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 CAPE is a lot more impressive today than yesterday. There is a pocket of 6000 sbcape off the coast of SC. Dcape is also a lot better in the upstate of SC than yesterday. There are some lingering clouds, but the sun has been out for the most part. Hoping to get in on a little action at least for the next 2 days. I like your positive attitude, but counting on an MCS for rain in the upstate, is like hanging your hat on a clipper, for snow! Rarely/never works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I like your positive attitude, but counting on an MCS for rain in the upstate, is like hanging your hat on a clipper, for snow! Rarely/never works out! It's gotta rain sometime, right? Sbcape and mucape is steadily creeping up and around 2500 for the upstate right now. Dcape has increased to 1400 over mby. Right now there doesn't appear to be any kind of trigger. By the time the MCS gets here we will have lost our heating and instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 They showed the HRRR or whatever short range model on TWC for tomorrow , and it shows NGs get rocked in the evening and one dying in the mountains of NC later at night! And no, it doesn't have to rain till mid August , that's what the record says anyway! 37 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 16z HRRR has it making it to the upstate, albeit in a weakened state, before completely falling apart. Another one is right on it's heels after that. Here is a MCS maintenance map on the mesoscale page. Falls in line with HRRR weakening it rapidly as it moves out of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Apparently , tomorrow is gonna be rockin, according to our friends at GSP ! Bet 100:1, something changes in the next 24 hours , and causes this to not happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Apparently , tomorrow is gonna be rockin, according to our friends at GSP ! Bet 100:1, something changes in the next 24 hours , and causes this to not happen! There is a reason why we are only at 40/50 % pops for tomorrow. It won't be widespread in the upstate. Just have to get lucky and have a cluster move over you. I won't be surprised if I don't receive any rainfall this week. If it weren't for the 0.03" of rain on July 2, we would be sitting at 16 days in a row without measurable rainfall. Edit: Now only 30/40 % pops tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 How is it looking for central NC tomorrow? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 How is it looking for central NC tomorrow? Sent from my iPhone Grave. According to NWS Raleigh this morning. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Grave. According to NWS Raleigh this morning. : It all depends on how the current MCS plays out.....if it stays west or dies out then its game on for sure IMO, way to much support for some serious nasty stuff. In fact its about the best severe setup POTENTIALLY that we have seen just about all year. It wont take a ton of cape either to really set it off, the winds will be screaming right off the surface so any organized line could easily get 50-60 mph winds down to the ground. If we get good sun and jack the cape up and can get some discrete supercells going then big hail and tornados would be the focus....so say hail/tor threat early to mid afternoon followed by perhaps a more MCS like squall with high winds and perhaps some QLCS rotations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Latest from GSP... CLOSE TO HOME...LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PLACES UPWARDS OF 2-3K J/KG SBCAPE ATOP THE NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH A 1.5K J/KG DCAPE MAXIMA CENTERED OVER THE UPSTATE. FORTUNATELY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERING IS PRESENT OVER THESE ZONES THUS THE FCST ONLY FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GROW TO STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. BEYOND THAT THE FCST SHIFTS FOCUS TO THE PROPAGATION OF UPSTREAM SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO MCS TRACKS...THE FIRST COMING INTO THE PICTURE TONIGHT...AND THE SECOND AROUND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFORE MENTIONED NIGHTTIME MCS WHERE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE FAVORED. MODELS AGREE BETTER...HOWEVER STILL NOT AT A CONSENSUS AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY SURVIVING CONVECTION WILL STRETCH. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINMENT AS THE LIKELY BROKEN LINE SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE MTNS. THEREFORE POPS THIS EVENING FEATURE LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...EASTWARD INTO THE I40 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN NC. FURTHER SOUTHEAST THE POPS DROP OFF TO HIGH END CHANCE LEVELS. THE SECOND POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY 4-5 HOURS BEHIND THE FIRST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF REMAINING INSTABILITY PRESENT BEHIND THE FIRST MCS. THINK THE MOST FAVORED TRACK WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT VALLEY WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIKELY RESIDE. THUS...POPS OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER OVER THE EAST WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES ARE FAVORED...INCREASING WESTWARD TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ALONG THE TN LINE. THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 GSP makes it sound like there is potential, but not sure if there will be anything to light the fuse tomorrow. Doesn't sound like a lot of confidence and consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 17z HRRR has the MCS further east and falling apart much faster. Get the feeling today is going to be a dud in the upstate without a trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 GSP makes it sound like there is potential, but not sure if there will be anything to light the fuse tomorrow. Doesn't sound like a lot of confidence and consensus. They spell it out pretty clearly I think, its all about the timing and it will be much different for the upstate versus central and eastern NC we don't have to worry about the mountains our line will redevelop long the lee trough and or a outflow from the MCS that's dies going over the mountains.... MHX has this long drawn out AFD for tomorrow but it gives you a ide of what the guidance is suggesting, you get that kind of instability and a nice strong LLJ and its game on... SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SEND A STRONG VORT CENTER THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MU CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 4K J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -10 AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ENC AREA IS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK FOR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBLE. SEE SWODY2 FROM SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HOT CONDS AS WELL WITH LWR TO MID 90S INLAND AND HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTN BETWEEN 100-104. -- End Changed Discussion -- But even RAH was surprisingly guarded with their AFD this afternoon as well .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 335 PM MONDAY... ...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLE TUESDAY NIGHT... CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HEATING OF THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL GENERATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON. A STEADY SW WIND AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE MANNER OF A MECHANISM ALOFT TO TRIGGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. BULK SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...AND MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL 45-50KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS ENHANCED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40KTS. A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE ABNORMALLY STRONG BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A GOOD PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sounds like RAH thinks everything will build up during the day tomorrow and boil over tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 WRAL Mike Maze 1 min · This storm complex across Kentucky is going on 19 hours since it developed in Minnesota last night. It is moving to the southeast between 35-45mph. On this course and if it holds together, we should see it arrive between 10PM-1AM. We could see some gusty winds. An even greater threat for severe weather could arrive tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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