downeastnc Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Much weaker the last 5 mins or so......but it got pretty strong for 10-15 mins had two hail cores that might have put down quarter size hail just west of Garner and down towards F_V. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It's building to the SW... looks like we might get a piece of it. Lightning had diminished, though. Had a nice outflow pass through a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Over in Clayton by our daughter... 2 NNE Clayton [Johnston Co, NC] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG at 8 Jul, 10:00 PM EDT -- TREES DOWN IN ROADWAY. COVERED BRIDGE RD AT ONEIL ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 3,200 in Wake without power. (per WRAL/Fox50 news) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NCCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 102013Z - 102215ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARDACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY THROUGHLATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VA INTO FARNORTHERN NC. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.DISCUSSION...AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULDCONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA INTO FARNORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLYEVENING...WITH RECENT STORM INTENSIFICATION PARTICULARLY NOTEDNEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LYNCHBURG VA VICINITY AS OF 20Z/4PM EDT. AFRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSSTHE REGION...AND THE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOMEMODERATELY UNSTABLE. A MODEST BELT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFTWILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING MULTICELLS/LINESEGMENTS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY WITH THESTRONGEST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...GUYER/HART.. 07/10/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Really most of the really bad severe storms I remember that happen during the summer have been NW to SE movers usually in a setup like this with a strong heat ridge over the SE and tomorrow maybe we can get a actual MCS dropping out of WV over eastern NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Really most of the really bad severe storms I remember that happen during the summer have been NW to SE movers usually in a setup like this with a strong heat ridge over the SE and tomorrow maybe we can get a actual MCS dropping out of WV over eastern NC... I don't think there will be much activity. I just don't see the setup that would trigger a significant outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 ...ERN VA/NC... LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPUR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VA EARLY TODAY AND NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NERN NC CONCURRENT WITH MAX DESTABILIZATION AND ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT NEAR VA/NC BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR A DEVELOPING SFC LOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. ROBUST MUTLICELL CONVECTION COULD ACQUIRE GREATER ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AMIDST THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WHERE ANTECEDENT VORTICITY IN THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO OR TWO. Categorical Graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Yeah models still flirt with that energy from WV triggering storms in the east.....seems to be a bit of a SLP forming over the area as well but I think that's just the models picking up on the MCS moving in...HRRR actually keeps everything pretty isolated to extreme NE NC with it staying to my NE even....hopefully its a bit more widespread than that and we see the slight risk area get bigger as the day wears on. 5% Tornado is interesting as well, feels horrible out 86 over 75 HI 96 at 9:30 in the morning.......bet we see some good storms in parts of eastern NC.....as long as we don't get a lot of early convection to trash it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Updated text... ...NE NC AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON... A COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WV/VA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD TO NE NC BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ACROSS ERN NC...AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A LEE TROUGH AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE NC. THE SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL DRIVE MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J PER KG/ IN THE ERN NC WARM SECTOR. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ZONE OF ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE ADJACENT BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SOME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ROUGHLY 35 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NE NC WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MORE ELY COMPONENT...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS PRONE TO VERTICAL MIXING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Mesoscale Discussion 1361 [an error occurred while processing this directive] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111657Z - 111830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY SPREADING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN TIP OF DELMARVA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND STORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC AT 16Z. THIS INCREASE IN STORMS AND CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO HAVE BEEN MET ALREADY. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MOST RECENTLY HAVE BEEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT FAVORS BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...A TORNADO THREAT EXISTS...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS LINE SEGMENTS EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/HART.. 07/11/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Farthest east cell already spun up but its out over no mans land should have a tornado warning on it at anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Right over the Alligator River to bad its no mans land I bet it would be awesome to see the structure this thing has to have.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Wetness for some lucky folks/swamps/sounds... MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0343NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD140 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN NC/NC OUTER BANKS... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 111739Z - 112224Z SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ERUPT ALONG A SHARPMOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT ANCHORING SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERNNC. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORT TRAININGCONVECTION WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES GIVEN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INPLACE.DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH TRACKEDTHROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDTHE EASTERN SHORE OF MD. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATIONSHIELD...NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES HAS LED TO AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELDACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL NC EASTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS.SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE RAISED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY VALUES ABOVE2000 J/KG WITH NO CAPPING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TOEXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITHLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGEBASED ON THE GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTEDNEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY RESULT INTRAINING/BACKBUILDING IF CONVECTION CAN ALIGN ITSELF ALONG THISMEAN FLOW.THE PAST FOUR CYCLES OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE INTHE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AFFECTED REGION. THISBRINGS THE SOLUTION INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHERCONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH DISPLAY A BROAD REGION 1 TO 2INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING4 INCHES. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH...THERE ARE POCKETS OFLOWER VALUES IN NC WHICH SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.OF COURSE ANY CONVECTION WHICH BEGINS TO TRAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELYCANDIDATES FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE VIEW THE LATESTSPENES FROM NESDIS/SAB FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.RUBIN-OSTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Looks like I am right on the border of the area outlined. Clouds have been building all afternoon but all is quiet. Would be nice to get a good storm to cool things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Sam Walker #OBXNews @SamWalkerOBX 2m2 minutes ago North Carolina, USA Waterspout takes out Ocracoke's power feed (Rachel O'Neal @TidelandEMC photo) #OBX #obxnews #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Sam Walker #OBXNews @SamWalkerOBX 2m2 minutes ago North Carolina, USA Waterspout takes out Ocracoke's power feed (Rachel O'Neal @TidelandEMC photo) #OBX #obxnews #ncwx Probably a sharknado, instead of a waterspout ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OR ACTIVITIES THOSE DAYS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 For Tuesday --- ...SRN KY...TN...NRN AL AND GA... A DYING MCS IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY FROM WV INTO ERN KY AND TN TUE MORNING...WITH SOME WIND THREAT REMAINING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING TO THE W. CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS KY AND TN...AND NEAR ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN YIELD A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. WHILE SIG SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS...THEN MERGE INTO AN MCS WHICH COULD THEN EXTEND SWD INTO NRN GA AND AL TUE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL AND ERN VA AND CAROLINAS... A SECONDARY AREA OF FOCUSED POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CAN DEVELOP WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS. PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS COULD SEE AN ENHANCED RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Going to be a tornado outbreak in Minn/Wisc today and that will all form a huge MCS and it is going to drop SE, they have a mod risk up along its path up there and into tomorrow as it drops south over the OHV.....the enhanced area on Tues is for the rems of this MCS, and what happens east of the Apps has a lot to do with timing/direction of that etc...if the MCS takes a more SE direction versus due south then Tues could be a rough day for a lot of VA/NC and even SC depending again on how the MCS plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 For Tuesday --- ...SRN KY...TN...NRN AL AND GA... A DYING MCS IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY FROM WV INTO ERN KY AND TN TUE MORNING...WITH SOME WIND THREAT REMAINING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING TO THE W. CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS KY AND TN...AND NEAR ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN YIELD A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT LIKELY DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. WHILE SIG SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY BEGIN AS SUPERCELLS...THEN MERGE INTO AN MCS WHICH COULD THEN EXTEND SWD INTO NRN GA AND AL TUE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL AND ERN VA AND CAROLINAS... A SECONDARY AREA OF FOCUSED POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CAN DEVELOP WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS. PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS COULD SEE AN ENHANCED RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. I really don't like when they say "carolinas" This part of the "CAROLINAS" very rarely sees any sort of organized system coming this way on a NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I will believe it when I see it with regards to a large area of severe weather here in NC. I actually hope it doesn't do anything Tuesday because it is my son's birthday, and we are going to the pool in the morning and seeing Minions in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I will believe it when I see it with regards to a large area of severe weather here in NC. I actually hope it doesn't do anything Tuesday because it is my son's birthday, and we are going to the pool in the morning and seeing Minions in the afternoon. There has been plenty of severe weather in NC the last few weekends, it just wasn't IYBY, I am hearing from my hunting buddies that live downeast that they had it really bad yesterday but there are very few people so most of the damage is in areas where no one is reporting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 There has been plenty of severe weather in NC the last few weekends, it just wasn't IYBY, I am hearing from my hunting buddies that live downeast that they had it really bad yesterday but there are very few people so most of the damage is in areas where no one is reporting it. I said there has not been a large area. The event we had a couple of weeks ago when there was no watch was the most widespread event we have had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 WRAL saying a severe threat Monday through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Wilmington NWS has a good write up for severe potential on Monday and tuesday... Tuesday is def sounding interesting with the strong shortwave coming thru peak during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yes, doesn't look like very much tomorrow, maybe some isolated storms, but Tuesday and Wednesday could have greater coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Interesting commentary... NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 3 mins · Here's a snapshot look at how some of the thunderstorm-resolving models used by the SPC verified compared to the actual radar image over the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. The actual radar, valid at 10 pm CDT, is the image in top left of this 8-panel montage. All the other images are simulated radar from various model forecasts, valid at 10 pm CDT, Sunday July 12, 2015. Some of these are 27-hour forecasts from model information made available late last night, others are 15-hour forecasts, generated from models available Sunday morning. The variety shown in the radar simulations provides a graphical depiction of the spread in forecast scenarios. And, this is just a single hour in time! Some details were accurately depicted in the forecasts, other details not so much. Every model developed storms in Iowa where no storms developed. The point is, no forecast is perfect and we have to keep that in mind when reviewing this type of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Interesting commentary... NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 3 mins · Here's a snapshot look at how some of the thunderstorm-resolving models used by the SPC verified compared to the actual radar image over the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. The actual radar, valid at 10 pm CDT, is the image in top left of this 8-panel montage. All the other images are simulated radar from various model forecasts, valid at 10 pm CDT, Sunday July 12, 2015. Some of these are 27-hour forecasts from model information made available late last night, others are 15-hour forecasts, generated from models available Sunday morning. The variety shown in the radar simulations provides a graphical depiction of the spread in forecast scenarios. And, this is just a single hour in time! Some details were accurately depicted in the forecasts, other details not so much. Every model developed storms in Iowa where no storms developed. The point is, no forecast is perfect and we have to keep that in mind when reviewing this type of information. I basically use these to get an idea of the percentage of area coverage and nothing more. We are a long way from accuratly predicting the exact position of individual cells more than and hour or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ...NRN GA...SC...NC...SERN VA... NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP A LEE TROUGH DEEPEN FROM VA INTO THE CNTRL CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...WITH BACKING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND PROFILES BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE LEE TROUGH...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT MAY CROSS THE MTNS. STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS POSSIBLE FROM SRN VA INTO NC/SC. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS WELL GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM MODE. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN WWD INTO GA AND SC WITH STRONG WLY MEAN WINDS HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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