mackerel_sky Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Already had a nice little storm roll through the area here. More on the way, it looks like.Are you under a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041714Z - 041915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW. DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY/SWLY FLOW OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WHILE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING IN WRN WV. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES NEWD AND DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. RECENT VAD DATA FROM RAX AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MHX SHOW MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 1 TO 5 KM. WHILE THIS FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS STORM COVERAGE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 We have some decent flow at the surface already so I could see some isolated wind reports with some of these cells here in the east if they can get organized....as long as they are over by 8pm and the wind lays up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Are you under a watch? Yep. A Severe Whining Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Yep. A Severe Whining Watch. Im pretty sure they only issue those for the upstate SC region...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Im pretty sure they only issue those for the upstate SC region......No, they are quite a regular occurence, in the Triangle area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Looks like I am a little too far west at Lake Gaston. Not sure if that discussion includes this area or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 No, they are quite a regular occurence, in the Triangle area A severe Whining warning for northern Union county SC including the town of Jonesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The cell approaching me is borderline severe should be fun.....people up the street have like 5 tents up in their yard and 50 people there for the 4th....gonna suck for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Looks like I am a little too far west at Lake Gaston. Not sure if that discussion includes this area or not. This area being monitored for an upgrade to a warning. American Weather detected strong whining in the area with favorable conditions to promote upscale growth. Probability of an upgrade at 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The cell approaching me is borderline severe should be fun.....people up the street have like 5 tents up in their yard and 50 people there for the 4th....gonna suck for them Especially since they didn't invite you. Storm looks pretty nasty heading your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 The cell approaching me is borderline severe should be fun.....people up the street have like 5 tents up in their yard and 50 people there for the 4th....gonna suck for them Have a video camera ready. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Especially since they didn't invite you. Storm looks pretty nasty heading your way. Yeah I don't know em and I am cooking wings now getting ready to headto my brother in laws around 5 for chicken quarters and brats on the grill.....got 4-5 cases of beer and $400 worth of SC finest illegal fireworks to consume as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Have a video camera ready. lol I'm 20 miles to his west and had some solid and steady winds with it. Not severe by any means but just like a constant steady 30mph wind for 5-10 minutes. Seeing how bad our severe season has been it was at least a fun storm to experience. Why are some storms so electric with nonstop lightning and then some have no lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I'm 20 miles to his west and had some solid and steady winds with it. Not severe by any means but just like a constant steady 30mph wind for 5-10 minutes. Seeing how bad our severe season has been it was at least a fun storm to experience. Why are some storms so electric with nonstop lightning and then some have no lightning? temps in the mid to upper levels mostly, last week it was colder aloft so more ice up top in the storms, so they were all really loaded with lightning, today its much warmer aloft so there isn't as much ice..... Storm got a bit of a twist to it on the S side nothing to crazy but its trying to rotate there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Glad the flood watch got extended another day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Glad the flood watch got extended another day! Turned out to be a nice day here. Sunny, dry, and 86°. Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe. Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Turned out to be a nice day here. Sunny, dry, and 86°. Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe. Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate.It's not the storms near Birmingham right now is it? Those are heading ESE, maybe a new batch that will go through ATL overnight and die in greenville , again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Looks like a little line of storms headed here to Lake Gaston. Have to see if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 temps in the mid to upper levels mostly, last week it was colder aloft so more ice up top in the storms, so they were all really loaded with lightning, today its much warmer aloft so there isn't as much ice..... Storm got a bit of a twist to it on the S side nothing to crazy but its trying to rotate there.... Yep, it is believed that the transition from rain to grapel/snow in the upper atmosphere could be the reason for lightning, but it is my understanding that it is still somewhat of an unknown as to why lightning forms. With the ground being positively charged, the ions in a cloud separate and the negatives move to the base of the cloud while the top anvil becomes positively charged. When enough energy is built up, it must be released and the positive charge moves through the negative region of the base to connect with the positively charged ground. Lightning is a very fascinating thing and something I am slightly obsessed with lol. I love to discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 A severe Whining warning for northern Union county SC including the town of Jonesville. Hopefully that can be canceled by tomorrow evening. As far as severe weather goes, if we had gotten enough instability around here the last couple of days, things could have been rough with the 30-40 knot 850 jet we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 WRAL has storms in the forecast everyday next week until Wednesday, which is as far as they go. Looks like next week could be pretty active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Saw some minor wind damage from the storm in pitt county earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 WRAL has storms in the forecast everyday next week until Wednesday, which is as far as they go. Looks like next week could be pretty active.That's gotta be wrong! Shetley said its going to be 120 degrees and dry next week !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Turned out to be a nice day here. Sunny, dry, and 86°. Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe. Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate.The HRRR was apparently correct for once , when it shows the precip moving N of everybody !Radar confirming that right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Here we go again in SAV! Severe line approaching from the west! Oh brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 That's gotta be wrong! Shetley said its going to be 120 degrees and dry next week !? I think it is more of a case of saying 50% chance of storms now just to cover their bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Getting pummeled 2nd day in a row in SAV with severe storms! Wow! Thank goodness I'm inside for the entire thing as opposed to driving through part of the insanity yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Nothing severe, but a flash flood warning IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Severe thunderstorm warning for Alamance and Chatham Counties. And all these storms will still miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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