No snow for you Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 The "ALERT" is chirping... **** ALERT *** ALERT ** POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MD VA NC DEL MONDAY *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 RAH Saturday afternoon AFD... STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF STRONGTO SEVERE STORMS MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A FEWSUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. WE'LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARMMOIST AIR NEAR THE GROUND AND A GOOD PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIRCOMING IN FROM THE SW. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTERINSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS FOR MON AFTERNOON... WITH MUCAPEOF 1000-2000 J/KG ON THE GFS AND 1500-3000 J/KG ON THE NAM... ANDSREF MEAN MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING AT 1200-1500 J/KG... ALTHOUGH THEDEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AT AROUND 30 KTS. NAM/GFS BUFRSOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP LOCATED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KM AGL IN THEMORNING... BREAKING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON... AND ONCE IT DOES...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND BECOME VIGOROUS QUICKLY WITH BROAD ANDDEEP CAPE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILLBE PRESENT AS WELL WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXITREGION OF A 140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET... AND A SHOT OF MID LEVEL DPVAAS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES UP THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN AMENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OF DAMAGING WIND AS THEPRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR 700-300 MB... HOWEVERTHE EXPECTED CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER APPEARS SUFFICIENT TOSUPPORT LARGE HAIL IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT. THICKNESSESARE PROJECTED TO START THE DAY AROUND 20 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO HIGHSIN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (NW TO SE) LOOK ATTAINABLE WITHIN GOODWARM AIR ADVECTION. WILL TREND OUT SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MID-LATEEVENING FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATEOVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO AROUND 60 SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Although CAPE is nothing special (750 to 1000), shear is slightly impressive for severe storms in Upstate South Carolina tomorrow. 0-3km helicity should be around 300-400 near GSP areas with 0-1 EHI km between 1 to 2. It's enough for me to make a hour drive to GSP area to see if I can luck out, especially if sun ends up shining longer than expected. Here's sounding just east of GSP for 5 pm Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Monday may turn out to be the better day for severe though, since more instability will be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Monday may turn out to be the better day for severe though, since more instability will be present. Agree. I just can't chase on that day because I got 8 hour of classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Let's see if Monday actually produces this time. The last time there was a lot of talk of severe storms here we didn't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 The "ALERT" is chirping... I am guessing that is WxRisk. Was this on facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I am guessing that is WxRisk. Was this on facebook? ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Let's see if Monday actually produces this time. The last time there was a lot of talk of severe storms here we didn't get anything.What talk?Its only a slight risk. Its not like its an enhanced or moderate risk.You know its not going to produce because I'm included in the "slight risk". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 What talk?Its only a slight risk. Its not like its an enhanced or moderate risk. You know its not going to produce because I'm included in the "slight risk". Don't be surprised we get a boost to enhanced risk if morning storms get out of way quickly for cells in afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Don't be surprised we get a boost to enhanced risk if morning storms get out of way quickly for cells in afternoon.It's funny because I just read that in the SPC discussion. That will make the threat much more interesting if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 RAH is talking it up more than your normal storms in their last discussion when it comes to the chance of severe storms. The last time that happened there were not any storms at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Sounds like a good play Blue. I am also thinking I will head down somewhere that way as the dynamics setup this afternoon. 6z 4km NAM had a very impressive cell maxing out 0-3000km helicity over Cleveland Co., NC later tonight with cape 1000+j/kg. That is enough to possibly produce so I am interested to see how this plays out across N GA/SC/& parts of NC today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Tornado Watch just issued for some of you guys areas. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 78NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK755 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFEASTERN ALABAMAFLORIDA PANHANDLESOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIACOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 755 AM UNTIL300 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLEISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BRINGING A RISK OF DAMAGINGWIND...A FEW TORNADOES...AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. SEE SPCMESOSCALE DISCUSSION 374 FOR INITIAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMACITY FLORIDA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Nice GTG velocity on this tor warned cell just E of Union Springs, AL. Short lived though as it appears to have weakened on the next frame. Shear and helicity are there though today to get some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 There is strong low level rotatation cuplet near Lithia Springs, GA, Sweetwater State Park, and Six Flags Over Georgia. It's headed towards Austell and Mableton in South Cobb County, GA. It's associated with the SVR T'Storm Warning for Douglas and Cobb counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Interested to see what happens in AL and GA today. Might be a look at what we get tomorrow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 854 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 930 AM CDT * AT 853 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO OVER ABBEVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ABBEVILLE...SHORTERVILLE...WILLIS CROSSROADS...MURPHY STATION... DOUBLE BRIDGES...SCREAMER...COATES...THOMAS MILL CREEK...OTHO... ABBEVILLE MUNICIPAL A/P AND WALTER F. GEORGE LOCK AND DAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 CC hole with decent rotation not too long ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 NAM still got several solid cells popping up over Upstate SC later this afternoon, but HRRR got a lot of precipitation spreading over the area that will make things difficult to see even if we do get couple of brief tornadoes (like Alabama did this morning). I might not go chasing after all because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Tornado warning in Floyd and Gordon county GA. FFC doesn't even have a watch up for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 When you get morning tornados in the SE, it's probably not going to be a good day for quite a few people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Tornado warning in Floyd and Gordon county GA. FFC doesn't even have a watch up for these areas.The SPC is the one who issues the watches. NWS only issues the warnings I believe.Impressive storm down by Dothan,AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Cell to the west of Marietta has some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 When you get morning tornados in the SE, it's probably not going to be a good day for quite a few people. Does it look like this is turning out to be a bigger deal today than previously thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Does it look like this is turning out to be a bigger deal today than previously thought? Depends. Sometimes what happens when there's a big mass of morning storms is that it shuts the moisture return out of the Gulf down and lowers the afternoon potential. That, or it can have the exact opposite effect if it fails to shut down the Gulf. 4/27/11 is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Depends. Sometimes what happens when there's a big mass of morning storms is that it shuts the moisture return out of the Gulf down and lowers the afternoon potential. That, or it can have the exact opposite effect if it fails to shut down the Gulf. 4/27/11 is a good example. Yeah, have seen plenty of times here where early storms just makes things more humid and unstable for later in the afternoon when the sun comes out and stirs things up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Does it look like this is turning out to be a bigger deal today than previously thought? That remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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