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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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New cells firing south of Raleigh lol....the air mass was loaded that's for sure. Doubt they get severe but to see them fire in a area that's been worked over like 3 times is impressive.

I was impressed by the recovery S of Durham today after that first cell went through. I chose to go N because it was an untapped environment. Was interesting to see nonetheless.

Finished my night off with sheetz though so it was way worth it. We dont have those in the mountains!

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Here's my chase summary: I didn't leave until I noticed a storm becoming supercellular NW of Sanford. I was on the way toward Lillington from my house in Johnston County by the time it got warned. Because I go to Sanford all the time to visit my grandparents, I was familiar with the chase area and knew it was pointless to go west of Lillington toward US-1 bypass due to major forest in the area. I tried to get closer by going north of Lillington toward Fuquay-Varina, but trees were too thick there so I backtracked back into Angier. I knew open fields were located there, so I found a spot and let the storm pass to my north. Here's slightly cleaner shot of Sanford-Angier supercell from my DSLR. I ran into problem of my camera fogging up, so it wasn't the sharpest... but it did the job. In excitement, I forgot to zoom out my lens completely to capture more of wall cloud but that's what iPhone was for just in case humidity blurred my camera too much. So, I captured my first ever lightning shot, got nailed by quarter-size hail (PR for biggest), a shot of lightning storm with moon in the background, and now this picture... what an incredible week of weather IMBY!

 

JRCMecm.jpg

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Without a geographical overlay, that map is nearly useless.

 

:)   Yes, the EDD only offers the capacity to reduce the transparency of the satellite imagery leading to reduced clairty of both the map and sat.  It is more relevant, and, much easier to see today now that the low and front in the middle Atlantic, along the larger trough has developed, that some of the development of the system may have been due to the characteristics of the TUTT interactions overall.  the middle Atlantic system looks very similar to ours that is just offshore, except with less convection.

 

281vfra.jpg

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445 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...

LOCATION...CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA

DATE...06-27-2015

ESTIMATED TIME...546 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75

YARDS PATH LENGTH...COUPLE MILES

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH NC HAS CONFIRMED A

TORNADO NEAR CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON 06-27-2015.

MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED SHORTLY.

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The tornado warning issued for Robeson county was no doubt a good call. The National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC confirms a supercell (rotating) thunderstorm produced two tornadoes in Robeson county Saturday evening. Thank God for no injuries or deaths. Here are the details:

TORNADO #1
LOCATION...RAYNHAM IN ROBESON COUNTY, NC
ESTIMATED TIME...823 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...175 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...1 MILE
FATALITIES...0
INJURIES...0

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 301 AND NORTH CHICKEN ROAD AND TRAVELED APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE. THE TORNADO SNAPPED 20 LARGE PINE AND HARDWOOD TREES AND TORE THE ROOF OFF OF SEVERAL BARNS. ALSO...1 EMPTY FERTILIZER SILO WAS OVERTURNED...AND 1 PIECE OF FARM EQUIPMENT WAS DESTROYED.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO #2
LOCATION...LUMBERTON IN ROBESON COUNTY, NC
ESTIMATED TIME...845 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...25 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...100 YARDS
FATALITIES...0
INJURIES...0

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE ALLENTON COMMUNITY JUST EAST OF LUMBERTON ON HIGHWAY 211. THE TORNADO UPROOTED A HEALTHY 100 YEAR OLD 3 FOOT DIAMETER PECAN TREE ALONG WITH 4 OTHER SMALLER OAK TREES...AND CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A HOME AS THE PECAN TREE PUNCTURED THE HOMES ROOF. THIS TORNADO WAS SPAWNED FROM THE SAME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A TORNADO 14 MILES TO THE WEST IN RAYNHAM.

11147567_10153393758097716_5993414202435
11036893_10153393762917716_5541744813368
 
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Ah pretty upset with myself, had a decision to make whether to head towards Dansville or back down towards Pittsboro and chose the wrong cell when I stopped in Stem, NC. Chose to go north and that was so stupid. Had time to get down to that warned cell. Caught some nice scud lifting and rotating feom the ground but dont think it was anything more than that. It was a hell of a storm S of martinsville though. Oh well the woes of chasing. At least I didnt wreck or get a ticket so today was a win haha.

 

I caught some rain showers on my way home from chasing a dying thunderstorm in Danville. Then missed the Martinsville storm that evening because I already headed north. Oh well -- Bad chasing day for me as well.

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...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TRACK EAST INTO

THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER

LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIANGLE THIS EVENING AS THE

AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW

STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING

WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND

WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11

PM THIS EVENING.

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Hi res model, shows lots of storms aroun GSP to CAE, early to mid afternoon and the storms die before they get to the triad! (:

Maybe y'all can get some storms tomorrow !?

Today is a WNC and upstate day and down to buckeye town! It's about time since we are officially under drought conditions now, per TWC and Jim Cantore

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A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians and across northern Georgia by mid-afternoon. Shortly after developing, these storms should move quickly east across the foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Through mid-evening, the environment across the region will likely support several severe thunderstorms, producing damaging wind gusts. In addition, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy downpours may occur with any storm. Details: http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_svr

10517669_969454576461180_782239713762023
11228520_969454729794498_769065278088495
11540840_969454826461155_745429365783761
11692499_969454999794471_408746842938982
 

 

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SPC says:

...DEEP SOUTH...   THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED S OF   ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY ALONG A LEAD/WEAK   FRONT. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LIES A RICHLY   BUOYANT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCH PER   GPS DATA/EVENING RAOBS. WITH PREDOMINANT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW   SUPPORTING EWD TRANSPORT OF THIS AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH   ADVECTION OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SRN   PLAINS...MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY   AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION. MODERATE 700-500   MB WLYS SHOULD FOSTER SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS   AND SPORADIC HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
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Not looking especially severe parameter wise in NC, somewhat better in GA and SC....PWATS are below 1.5" and cape is there but 1500 or less but there is some shear so who knows......some days you can get severe with crappy parameters and some days parameters can be through the roof and ya get meh storms or nada. Most of NC wont see much and east of RDU most likely wont see anything.

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Not looking especially severe parameter wise in NC, somewhat better in GA and SC....PWATS are below 1.5" and cape is there but 1500 or less but there is some shear so who knows......some days you can get severe with crappy parameters and some days parameters can be through the roof and ya get meh storms or nada. Most of NC wont see much and east of RDU most likely wont see anything.

 

Ain't that the truth.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 373

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

135 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-073-077-083-087-091-010100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0373.150630T1735Z-150701T0100Z/

SC

. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE

CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD

LAURENS OCONEE PICKENS

SPARTANBURG UNION YORK

$$

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post-987-0-41703800-1435687705_thumb.gif

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 301738Z - 302015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD
   TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE
   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF
   CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN
   PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL
   CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
   CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF
   NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND
   25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE
   INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE
   COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES
   OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE
   ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
   THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015

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attachicon.gifmcd1244.gif

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 301738Z - 302015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE

   PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD

   TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE

   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED

   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF

   CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY

   INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL

   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE

   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN

   PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL

   CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH

   CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF

   NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE

   AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND

   25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE

   INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE

   COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH

   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES

   OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE

   ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION

   THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL

   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE

   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015

 

Ya know I was shocked as hell to see this lol......lots of low level lapse rates but everything else other than shear is just meh, but strong shear can work wonders if you can get the storms going.....this could be one of those days where the line forms N and W of the Triad and badasses its way all the way to the coast......its been so long since I have seen that though, but if you can get a good enough line going there is a chance I guess....it would be late here 8pm or later I think before anything got to PGV.....

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Ya know I was shocked as hell to see this lol......lots of low level lapse rates but everything else other than shear is just meh, but strong shear can work wonders if you can get the storms going.....this could be one of those days where the line forms N and W of the Triad and badasses its way all the way to the coast......its been so long since I have seen that though, but if you can get a good enough line going there is a chance I guess....it would be late here 8pm or later I think before anything got to PGV.....

 

Yeah, CAPE is modest, mid level lapse rates stink to high heaven, and CAPE in the hail zone is not very robust.  But as you said, shear is pretty good and low level lapse rates are decent.  LIs are -2 or better and general ML CAPE is in the 500-1500 j/kg range, depending on where you are.  Storms are firing to the west, so maybe there's a chance.  We'll see....

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ww0378_radar_big.gif

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FROM CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

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