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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 361

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-013-037-049-051-057-061-063-065-067-069-077-079-081-083-

085-093-101-103-105-107-117-125-127-133-135-145-147-151-163-181-

183-185-187-191-195-270200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0361.150626T1955Z-150627T0200Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE BEAUFORT CHATHAM

CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON

DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE

FORSYTH FRANKLIN GRANVILLE

GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX

HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON

JONES LEE LENOIR

MARTIN MOORE NASH

ONSLOW ORANGE PERSON

PITT RANDOLPH SAMPSON

VANCE WAKE WARREN

WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON

$$

ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...

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Same area that got the big storms last night.

 

356 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2015

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  central Johnston County in central North Carolina...
  south central Wake County in central North Carolina...

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 356 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
  capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess
  of 58 mph. This storm was located near Garner...or 14 miles south
  of Raleigh...and moving east at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Smithfield...Garner...Clayton...Four Oaks...Lake Benson...Flowers
  and Coats Crossroads.

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Saw this from WRAL on facebook:

in 40/42 area on Hillcrest Drive, my yard is covered in hail with golf all sized hail coming down for over 5 minutes and some hail much larger than that (but I'm not gonna go measure it! Huge amounts of hail with heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Five miles away from me. I picked up about .01" of rain!

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Areas around New Bern getting hammered  right now, looks like tomorrow could have several rounds of storms with discrete stuff early then a full on MCS later.....

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE
LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT
HAPPENING...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHAT WILL START AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO CLUSTERS AND
SMALL LINE SEGMENTS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS FORCING FROM
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. BY EVENING...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUPPORTING A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS...SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SO FLOODING
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY LIKELY BUT URBAN AREAS AND PLACES WHERE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WET COULD BECOME SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.

TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE CONVECTION STARTING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 18Z...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD
AROUND 00Z ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRIANGLE AFFECTED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY 6Z ON SUNDAY. WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRIAD MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
 

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HAd a few pop up around me again this evening but very little in the way of T&L but I did pick up maybe .10-.15" so far and the temp is down to 75 and there is a breeze so its nice on the porch watching the little updrafts firing on the backside of the cell as it moves off to the east.....

 

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