mackerel_sky Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Lots of thick cirrus this AM! Probably just one of the many factors that will come together to not give us any storms or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'm interested to see how today plays out because with the lack of storms south of raleigh yesterday the atmosphere is already starting out with >2000 Sb cape and skies are clear there today as well where as yesterday there were overcast skies for a good portion of the morning. Yes, a lot more sun and already more humid here this morning than it was yesterday morning. Maybe that will help increase the coverage of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 This morning's HWO from Raleigh .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONGTHUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAYAFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ANDISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Sounds like RAH thinks Saturday could be worse than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 In Raleighs discussion they mention cape being held down to 1000 because advection of dry air but in Wilmington's discussion they state a tropical like airmass will continue over the region haha we'll see tho because cape is already high, that dying complex over the mountains may be what we need to help get storms going later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Cool lightning captures. Lots of positive lightning strikes and interesting storm structure. Cool vid, downeast! How can you tell positive lightening strikes from negative ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Cool vid, downeast! How can you tell positive lightening strikes from negative ones? Positive strikes typcially originate much higher in the cloud and transfer positive energy to the ground. Whereas negative bolts generate and transfer negative energy to the ground. Positive bolts only account for around 15% of total strikes but generate 10-15 times more energy when they strike. So positive bolts come from much higher in the cloud and pack a much stronger punch when they strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 The storm over Harnett last night literally sprang up in a matter of minutes. Look like two boundaries collided near Angier and popped up. I'm not as optimistic for storms tonight as I am for Saturday. Things could get rollicking by early evening, depending on the trough's advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Cool vid, downeast! How can you tell positive lightening strikes from negative ones? The negative ones always look sad, while the positive ones are smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I am not so sure what today will hold, but tomorrow does look much better as the SLP moves through the Ohio Valley and a front ( a real front) moves through with the airmass becoming extremely unstable in front of it...... PWATS are way down over western NC ( ironic since they have the elevated risk per SPC versus us in the east) but its early and that can change but I would think with all the left over boundries etc from yesterday that it wont take long to see new development today once we get good heating going.....cant see mcape staying under 1000 anywhere if the sun is out, dry air or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Positive strikes typcially originate much higher in the cloud and transfer positive energy to the ground. Whereas negative bolts generate and transfer negative energy to the ground. Positive bolts only account for around 15% of total strikes but generate 10-15 times more energy when they strike. So positive bolts come from much higher in the cloud and pack a much stronger punch when they strike. Thanks man. Makes sense. The negative ones always look sad, while the positive ones are smiling. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Dropped us to 20% chance for this afternoon and 30% overnight down from 40% yesterday, guess we will see.....Hi Res have some clusters of storms around this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Cool vid, downeast! How can you tell positive lightening strikes from negative ones? Kind of like Brick and Isopycnic! Y'all figure out who's who!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Dropped us to 20% chance for this afternoon and 30% overnight down from 40% yesterday, guess we will see.....Hi Res have some clusters of storms around this afternoon. Thought today was going to be a bigger deal than yesterday, but doesn't look that way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Kind of like Brick and Isopycnic! Y'all figure out who's who!?i had a thunderstorm for 3 hours last night... Hail wind and constant lightning. It was awesome!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 HRRR has a decent line that moves from the Triangle to the coast around 5-8 tonight......its a more traditional north/south line moving eastward, seems lately everything has been west/east and moving N/S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 i had a thunderstorm for 3 hours last night... Hail wind and constant lightning. It was awesome!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 HRRR has a decent line that moves from the Triangle to the coast around 5-8 tonight......its a more traditional north/south line moving eastward, seems lately everything has been west/east and moving N/S Been a long time since we have had a big line of storms move across the state like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Latest SPC... ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...THE ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Brick's gonna be mad again today when we're under a slight risk and no storms pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Brick's gonna be mad again today when we're under a slight risk and no storms pop up. Tomorrow looks like the better bet. We'll see. If we have storms it will give me a good excuse to put off mowing the grass until Sunday when it will be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Thundering at the house right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Thundering at the house right now. Yep it has begun, the question now is how many and how organized do they get, decent shear and cape in place, I have seen good storms with a lot less...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Cells coming into Greensboro are decent and training..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Thundering at the house right now. Pulse storms forming off of Shearron Harris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Pulse storms forming off of Shearron Harris? Looks like it! The rain is about 1/2 mile from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Watch possibly incoming.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261929Z - 262130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER NC. DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NC NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH. WEAK STORMS AND TCU ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL NC...AND SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL NELY WINDS BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED CELLULAR ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO A FEW SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...HAIL AND WIND BOTH APPEAR POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..JEWELL/HART.. 06/26/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'd expect Orange and Durham to have some flooding issues if we get any storm coverage later. The Eno looked like it wanted to spill over its banks when I saw it this morning on a hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Also a considerable increase in the slight risk area for tomorrow pretty much put all of us that post here in slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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