AJF0602 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 You all were right about the Dcape.. its already extremely high this morning, low clouds are starting to burn off here towards the coast... looking upstream I'm interested to see what what happens with the complex dropping out of the Ohio valley when it encounters all of the heat and instability later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Overcast skies as far as the eye can see and a temp of 79. Not sure how much sunshine or instability we'll see today. I'm thinking the severe threat might be at risk of being eliminated around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Morning update from RAH: MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVEREPOTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OFVERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOTTHEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVEALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUTTHE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINKSHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TOBE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE ISPROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MOREORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITHPERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHERVARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOWIT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUETO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ANDEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVEREWEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THELOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANYSEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHTRISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS ANDPOTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGYIS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTEDSOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFTEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMSCOULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOODWARNINGS. -ELLIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I thought this might be a higher confidence deal, but sounds just like all the other severe chances we have had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 How in the world can there be a 'high confidence' in a 'slight risk area' spread from Colorado to Delaware down to NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I guess hoping is a better word. Seems we can't get a classic setup for good storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I guess hoping is a better word. Seems we can't get a classic setup for good storms this year. A little more cloud cover this am than I would like but most hi res models bring something down from the NW later today and gives a line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 78 at the RDU airport. Down from last hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Morning update from RAH: MORNING UPDATE: TODAY WILL BE BEST CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE BUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER REMAINS TO BE SEEN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST AND REPRESENTS WHAT WE THINK SHOULD HAPPEN. NAMELY...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHAT DOES GO UP HAS THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA BORDER AND WILL HELP SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH ENHANCED HELICITY. ANOTHER VARIABLE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AT PEAK HEATING. RIGHT NOW IT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRIAD LESS LIKELY. AGAIN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRIANGLE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AS FAR AS HYDROLOGY IS CONCERNED...AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROMPTED SOME FLOODING NEAR THE TRIAD. FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROMPT SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. -ELLIS We'll be watching how things shape up to the south this afternoon. Watched those storms over Chatham Co. dry up just as they got to the Harnett County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hot and humid here in Jville.. We did have overcast really early but that burned off fast down here, I hope all of the ingredients come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 78 at the RDU airport. Down from last hour! Starting to wonder if the storms and clouds this morning are going to hurt the development of more storms today more than help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 We'll be watching how things shape up to the south this afternoon. Watched those storms over Chatham Co. dry up just as they got to the Harnett County line. I noticed that too. We got lucky that they stayed together as far as our place. Most of the time they fall apart earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Starting to wonder if the storms and clouds this morning are going to hurt the development of more storms today more than help it. Take a look at local radar, just heard thunder here 4 miles N of Zebulon, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Out getting lunch and hearing thunder near downtown Raleigh. Looking really dark to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 High thin clouds still filtering out sun here. Still think we are getting enough heating and we are sitting around 90 right now. Gonna be interesting to see what if any storms can get going today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 SPC at 11:30 ...MID-ATLANTIC AREA... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN THIS REGION AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING AND MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THIS REGION WITH STRONGER SHEAR /35-45 KT/ EXPECTED OVER VA AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR...THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTION OF VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Out getting lunch and hearing thunder near downtown Raleigh. Looking really dark to the north. You shoulda hit me up for lunch if you're near downtown. We have a few breaks in the clouds here now, but still mostly overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 You shoulda hit me up for lunch if you're near downtown. We have a few breaks in the clouds here now, but still mostly overcast. I'm a little north of downtown before the split. Sun is peeking through here. No more thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Ugh thin clouds have faded here and we are getting full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 You shoulda hit me up for lunch if you're near downtown. We have a few breaks in the clouds here now, but still mostly overcast. Damn, I was in raleigh earlier today up off Durant Rd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Ugh thin clouds have faded here and we are getting full sun. Isn't that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Damn, I was in raleigh earlier today up off Durant Rd.... Dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Just woke up and things look on track for some severe..... morning clouds held up central and eastern NC a bit but its more than unstable enough now and getting worse ( better). Already some stuff breaking out around RDU, not much shear support yet though it is peak heating so we shall see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 More sun here in north Raleigh now. Maybe it will be enough to light the match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Isn't that good? yeah my phone turned it to the ugh for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 storms trying to get going around the triangle but so far everything looks to be struggling ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 storms trying to get going around the triangle but so far everything looks to be struggling ...... It's looked weird all day here. The sun is out, but the skies still look dark. Like it can't decide if it wants to storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Things quickly breaking down now, storms firing near Rocky Mount that could be my first chance at seeing something, and a few storms popping on the sea breeze...I got a nice view of that new storm going up south of Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I don't get why storms are having so much trouble today, with all of the instability. They can't grow and keep petering out. What's the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I don't get why storms are having so much trouble today, with all of the instability. They can't grow and keep petering out. What's the deal? Been that way all year for the most part. Meanwhile, I saw on facebook with the On This Date feature that we had good storms on this date the previous two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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