Isopycnic Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 a Trace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Seems a front will settle across the region early next week. Not sure of the severe threat but there should at least be some more widespread storms across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 830 PM EDT * AT 753 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK...OR 7 MILES EAST OF RIVER ROAD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WASHINGTON AND GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Figure I would bump this to keep the obs thread from getting cluttered with storm reports MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WEST VIRGINIA...SRN PENNSYLVANIA...WRN/CNTRL MARYLAND...WRN/NRN VIRGINIA...AND THE WRN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201736Z - 201930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AT LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/WEAK TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO 20-21Z. ONE OR MORE WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS PROBABLY IS BEING AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. A BELT OF CYCLONIC/WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. AS THIS CONTINUES...A GRADUAL CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD. AS THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS...BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F/ ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. THIS SEEMS MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO OR AFTER 20-21Z...AND WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AT LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED/BRIEF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wonder if that area will move east as the day goes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wonder if that area will move east as the day goes along. If the line over the upstate of SC can hook up with the line leaving the foothills of NC then we could get a decent squall line that I would imagine would race east... We got some sea breeze type storms going up I got a big one not to far to my south and another forming to my SW.....both went from nothing to 25k ft in 3 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'm in SE VA (Chesapeake/Norfolk) this weekend. Looks like this area has a solid chance later on --- already one storm forming to my east. Looks like it started up along the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 If the line over the upstate of SC can hook up with the line leaving the foothills of NC then we could get a decent squall line that I would imagine would race east... We got some sea breeze type storms going up I got a big one not to far to my south and another forming to my SW.....both went from nothing to 25k ft in 3 frames I think you are getting what you asked for in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 We are under a severe thunderstorm warning. Looks like storm is heading right for me. Lots of thunder and rain has started. Looks like this may be my 1st big storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Some severe storm that was. A bit of wind and just steady rain right now. No even good lightning strikes from it. Nothing severe to it. Only .20" so far from it so far. But we do need the rain and it is welcomed as it has cooled down to 77, dew point 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 @wxbrad 6m6 minutes ago Numerous power outages in Northeast Charlotte into Cabaruus Co due to storms. #cltwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 From this afternoon's HWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILLBECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 From this afternoon's HWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Which means I probably won't see any storms at all on Wednesday and Thursday if it goes like it has all year when there is talk of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Some severe storms are just to my NW drifting very slowly SE. It looks quite dark. This could be a doozy for Sav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Which means I probably won't see any storms at all on Wednesday and Thursday if it goes like it has all year when there is talk of severe weather. Please stop. We get it. If you can't afford to hire a personal met to forecast only for your house, you will have to live with area forecasts like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some severe storms are just to my NW drifting very slowly SE. It looks quite dark. This could be a doozy for Sav.Saw the 2 reports in KSAV od the NW47 G 64 mph and the VRB 6 gusts to 68 MPH. That's 3 significant SVR WX events recorded at the ASOS this year alone.Locally, I got hit here too, with nickel sized hail, 50-60 mph wind gusts, extreme excessive CG and torrential rainfalls. Summerville was also hit pretty hard too. Attached is the radar just before things went ape here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Please stop. We get it. If you can't afford to hire a personal met to forecast only for your house, you will have to live with area forecasts like the rest of us. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Please stop. We get it. If you can't afford to hire a personal met to forecast only for your house, you will have to live with area forecasts like the rest of us. The severe weather forecasts have been really off for a lot of people the last couple of years. I just think it is funny that when we do have big storms around here they are during times when there is no watch at all, and when there is a watch we don't get any storms at all. Cold Rain has said as much, too. Not mad or bitter about it, or anything like that. I just think it is comical now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The severe weather forecasts have been really off for a lot of people the last couple of years. I just think it is funny that when we do have big storms around here they are during times when there is no watch at all, and when there is a watch we don't get any storms at all. Cold Rain has said as much, too. Not mad or bitter about it, or anything like that. I just think it is comical now. Some of the best snows come with no warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the best snows come with no warning! Some of the best storms, too. The couple of times I have actually had severe storms this year came when there was no watch. The biggest came on a day when the mets were talking more about a severe threat a couple of days later, and then there were no storms at all that day. I just think it's crazy how that has been happening regularly the last couple of years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the best storms, too. The couple of times I have actually had severe storms this year came when there was no watch. The biggest came on a day when the mets were talking more about a severe threat a couple of days later, and then there were no storms at all that day. I just think it's crazy how that has been happening regularly the last couple of years here.I think I read or heard that they were going to consolidate NWS offices!? Like GSP , lord help us, may be the only office , for the whole Southeast? Maybe it was just for severe, but not sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm in the brown! I bet I get a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder why WRAL calls the yellow elevated while the SPC calls it slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder why WRAL calls the yellow elevated while the SPC calls it slight. All has to due with who they are broadcasting to --- The public. When they tell everyone that the SPC has the area in a slight risk zone, it is normally brushed off because the public perceives slight as only having a very small chance. Elevated gives the feeling of a higher chance of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 All has to due with who they are broadcasting to --- The public. When they tell everyone that the SPC has the area in a slight risk zone, it is normally brushed off because the public perceives slight as only having a very small chance. Elevated gives the feeling of a higher chance of storms. Goes along with my thinking that the terms marginal and slight are too similar and really only need one or the other, not both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm in the brown! I bet I get a storm! Odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 3000+ J/KG ML Cape over most of eastern NC. 5000+ J/KG SB Cape near the coast! LIs at least -7 over most of eastern NC with pockets of -8. DCape of 1200 J/KG over a lot of the area. Cape in the hail growth zone is around 700 J/KG. And Velocity Tensor Magnitude is around 306. If only we had a match. Those are pretty robust parameters. They'll probably drop as the afternoon wears on, as more mixing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 From this afternoon's HWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Wonder if there has been any change in the thinking for Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Odds?100% if you live in Mauldin and Five Forks area! Was the only storms within a 500 mile radius, but it was severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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