yotaman Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I don't think we have had a single severe thunderstorm warning yet this year. Pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I don't think we have had a single severe thunderstorm warning yet this year. Pretty amazing. -NAO ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 -NAO ftw!I thought it was El Niño , causing all this awesome weather!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I don't think we'll see any storms here today. Maybe some rain. I just don't see how we will get anything unstable enough for storms with the way it is so overcast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Sun is out here in Jville, interested to see what happens later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I heard some thunder this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I saw a raindrop. I had almost forgotten what they looked like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I saw a raindrop. I had almost forgotten what they looked like!It's crazy how the state is so dry down there. I mean even the loval climate around here is crazy. We had more rain overnight but a lot of the county is really dry at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 It's crazy how the state is so dry down there. I mean even the loval climate around here is crazy. We had more rain overnight but a lot of the county is really dry at the moment. I haven't checked month to date totals here, but I can't imagine that we're not quite behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Here are a few hodographs and soundings from the 6z 4km NAM. Winds look favorable along the coast for cyclone development between 3pm-5pm with veered wind profiles prevalent during this period. KILM @ 4pm PGV @ 4 pm. Looks to have a bit of VBV issues that could hinder development a bit. Overall I think this is a decent setup for areas around the Wilmington area. Looking at meso analysis you can already see good cape building in that area, along with decent shear values. NC's own little tornado alley could be under the gun today for the first time really in 2015. Places like Whiteville, Tabor City, Lumberton, & Elizabethtown will be your best bet if you are looking to chase today. Sea breeze front should have good interaction there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Already in the 80s here with continued sun, today looks promising but we'll see, the sea breeze was really evident on radar yesterday,hoping for a repeat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Well, just had a legit shower move through and picked up probably .2. Also heard thunder. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Here are a few hodographs and soundings from the 6z 4km NAM. Winds look favorable along the coast for cyclone development between 3pm-5pm with veered wind profiles prevalent during this period. KILM @ 4pm PGV @ 4 pm. Looks to have a bit of VBV issues that could hinder development a bit. Overall I think this is a decent setup for areas around the Wilmington area. Looking at meso analysis you can already see good cape building in that area, along with decent shear values. NC's own little tornado alley could be under the gun today for the first time really in 2015. Places like Whiteville, Tabor City, Lumberton, & Elizabethtown will be your best bet if you are looking to chase today. Sea breeze front should have good interaction there. Great post! If I can get someone to come along with me, I'm definitely going out. I was waiting for a plains expedition, but everything there so far has turned into a giant floody mess. So I'm a bit antsy. I don't know if that specific, about-40-miles-SW-of-i95 corridor will get it. I'm thinking more along a stretch about 20 miles off the coast, from whiteville to Jacksonville to new been. Burgaw is also a hotspot during these setups, I might base there for good times sake. Should be fun. Just wish winds aloft were stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Already in the 80s here with continued sun, today looks promising but we'll see, the sea breeze was really evident on radar yesterday,hoping for a repeat today. Only 68 here and have not seen the sun all day. Funny how 120 miles can make all the difference. Does look like there is a storm to the south near Angier and Clayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Had a few peeks of sun but its been mostly cloudy all morning here just west of PGV. I'm thinking i'm too far west for any good stuff and the highway 17 corridor looks like a good spot to be. I will have very limited chasing ability today so I really need a cell to come up through lenoir county near Kinston towards ayden and SE pitt county for me to chase. Gonna be a stretch I think to get a tornadic cell that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The flow at the surface would suggest some rotation for sure with strong SW to W mid level winds.....SE NC as Hvward pointed out is the best chance but anywhere a good updraft can get going you got a chance at weak spin ups...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Sunny and 70 here in Nags Head. I wouldn't mind a severe storm or two! It has been a beautiful week here in OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Sunny and 70 here in Nags Head. I wouldn't mind a severe storm or two! It has been a beautiful week here in OBX. My favorite place in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 1111 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SC GRAND STRAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211611Z - 211745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND A WATCH WILL STRONGLY BE CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW 30 MI W SOP WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE GRAND STRAND VICINITY. OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOW TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 DEG F WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. SUPER RAPIDSCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING TCU FIELD IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING IMPLIES A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NC AHEAD OF THE MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. IT SEEMS THE WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL ERODE THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS PROBABLE BY THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME. VEERING AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BECOME ESTABLISHED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODERATE BUOYANCY AS OF 16Z ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ONCE INITIATION COMMENCES. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DESPITE TEMPERED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND FAVORABLY TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/21/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 we have seen plenty of sun here all day in jville with cape values looking primed, also shear looks decent on the mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Just on the edge. We will see. Heard some thunder at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Not been sunny here really but I went to lunch just now and the cool and chilly stable airmass we had this morning has been replaced and its now muggy and feels like there is plenty of energy to work with for these storms. Storms out west looking linear will need to keep a eye out for any discrete cells that fire out in front of the main lines as they develop those will be the ones that spin up Edit: looks like we got a severe thunderstorm watch coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The line from Sanford to Florence is starting to get some areas that will have severe thunderstorm warnings on it soon if not already...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Pouring the rain at my work in Raleigh (intersection of US1 & US401) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 My favorite place in NC. Have you ever been to highlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 If that line of storms cans stay discrete I would worry a bit about tornados there is a decent backing of winds as the line gets east of I 95.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Cell in Wilson Co quickly spun up and has a couplet and hook appearing on radar gonna get a tornado warning on it soon I bet if it keeps up headed more or less for Wilson.....Shaggy that's all you man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Cell in Wilson Co quickly spun up and has a couplet and hook appearing on radar gonna get a tornado warning on it soon I bet if it keeps up headed more or less for Wilson.....Shaggy that's all you manYep thats the first cell of the day that really has my attention. Cells to the south are in best environment but that cell headed towards Wilson has the best structure so far of the day. Good lightning on it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Yep thats the first cell of the day that really has my attention. Cells to the south are in best environment but that cell headed towards Wilson has the best structure so far of the day. Good lightning on it also. Its also closer to the warm front so the ones that ride that boundry could spin up as well in fact they would be the most likely to produce a stronger tornado.....kinda ragged the last few scans but its headed into more favorable conditions......should have a STW got some nasty winds in it regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Had a good downpour of rain for an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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