shaggy Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Its awfully juicy feeling out there today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Watch a storm pop up here this evening right before my son's baseball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I'd like to just to get a decent storm severe or not. Its been dead quiet on the thunderstorm front all spring. Instability is decent so we'll see how it unfolds the rest of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Solak posted this in the pattern thread. Sounds like Sunday could be a little more active. RAH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTHIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY BEING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVECONVECTIVE-WISE...DEPICTING A MINOR S/W CROSSING OUR REGION DURINGPRIME HEATING. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30-40PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...HIGHERPOPS WARRANTED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN COMBINATION WITH THEMOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT MORE SCATTEREDCONVECTION ON MONDAY THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IF THEATMOSPHERE IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 HWO - 343 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THISAFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREATOF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THEPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11PM...PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 3000 SCAPE, 2000MCAPE, LI -6, 20-25knt shear here and you think that should be enough to really get things cranking but everything that pops up fizzles out......looks like north of RDU however they are able to maintain a bit better.... There seems to be some new CU firing south of Raleigh near Dunn that if it gets going would be the storms that get most of us east of I 95.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Waterspout/tornado that came ashore in Manteo yesterday that did some damage to trees etc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZrPxsNXm1Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Some rotation developing on the Roanoke Rapids storm on the VA border.......the rest of these storms are putrid and unable to sustain for some reason..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 From GSP... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERSCONTINUE TO ATTEMPT INITIATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THISAFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR ANALYSISINDICATES SAID SHOWERS ALONG WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THESOUTH OVER THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL GA. PERLATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THENC/SC PIEDMONT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL AXIS WHICH ISCURRENTLY SLIDING INTO/THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS. THUS...OPTED NOTTO LOWER POPS AS SOME CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER EXPANSION REMAINS. OTHERWISE...DID TWEAK SKY/TEMPS/DEWS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENTOBS/SAT IMAGERY WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 A little blob just S of Wilson just fired up. We're getting awful antsy, given the ripe, robust conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 yeah parameters are kinda sick right now for most everyone and especially east of RDU, you would think anything that started to go would explode but so far its not happened ......I still think based on the vis loop that from RDU to Fayetteville is where its going to kick off here soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 It wont happen to after 7:30 cause I will be at work then, in a huge building with no real windows and machines that require headsets so it could be throwing down outside and unless the power goes I wouldn't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 It's over. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Finally that cell in Greene Co looks to produce the goods, growing quickly and headed right for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 must seen me talking nice about it cause now its kinda meh ........the hi res models did have a line of storms around 9-10 maybe we just gotta be patient..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 That one little cell came right over me and gave me winds in the 30-40mph range. Really a decent cell for its size and organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Looks like the Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids area got a good storm. That was it. Still a real dud this spring when it comes to storms here. Guess we look to Sunday for the next chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Looks like the Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids area got a good storm. That was it. Still a real dud this spring when it comes to storms here. Guess we look to Sunday for the next chance. I wouldn't get my hopes up. The way this season is going, it will either be a CAD event with light rain showers or a few isolated storms. Thank you -NAO for showing up right after mid-April and lasting through the entire spring season. Glad you were hibernating all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 I wouldn't get my hopes up. The way this season is going, it will either be a CAD event with light rain showers or a few isolated storms. Thank you -NAO for showing up right after mid-April and lasting through the entire spring season. Glad you were hibernating all winter long.It does exist, it does exist ! I didnt know a -NAO still existed ! Did a cold front come through today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Severe threat on Thursday (5/21)? .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW PRESSURE WILLTRACK EAST ACROSS NC ON THU...THEY STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THEDEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECEDING WARM FRONTWILL RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THOUGH THESE UNCERTAINTIESEXIST...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE SFC LOW...IN CONJUNCTIONWITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF TROUGHAMPLIFICATION ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL YIELD A FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. IN FACT...IT APPEARSTHAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILLBECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ANDTHE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OFHIGHWAY 64 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FAVORED FOR MOST OPTIMALDESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL POSETHE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDE-RANGING GIVENBOTH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION - LOW TO MID 70S NORTHTO MID 80S SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 SPC has bumped us up to Slight Risk in a small area in central/eastern NC ...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... AHEAD OF THE WEAK CYCLONE...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHICH IS WHERE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS DEPICTING FASTER 700-500 MB WLYS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 An interesting spread on potential storm energy over eastern NC tomorrow afternoon. Forecasts range from 1,000 to upwards of 3,000. Add the mid-level shear potential and things could be hopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Updated 2... 12:29 PM ...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... A SURFACE FRONT BISECTING SC AND SE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS WEDNESDAY WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN E OF THE LOW COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. AND COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE BUOYANCY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EWD OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 You know it's a crappy severe season when we're nearly to the end of May and the only excitement we can muster is over an isolated severe storm threat within a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 You know it's a crappy severe season when we're nearly to the end of May and the only excitement we can muster is over an isolated severe storm threat within a small area. Yeah its been crappy, that said I have seen these setups with a warm front moving in like this turn into unexpected active days, especially with tornado threats, I wont be surprised to see a few hooks tomorrow on any storms riding the warm front.......strong mid level wly flow with SE/S flow at the surface could make it interesting for a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 We'll see if it actually happens this time. Based on 99% of the time we have had talk of any kind of strong or severe storms in NC this spring, there won't be any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Latest HWO and AFD move the severe chances further East. Sorry, Brick... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKSEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THATDEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGINGWINDS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC-LOW...AND A NARROW TEMPORAL/ SPATIAL WINDOW FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN ~18-21Z IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...OVERALL SVR THREAT (AND ANY TOR POTENTIAL) IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL NC WHERE SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC-H85 LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Yeah its been crappy, that said I have seen these setups with a warm front moving in like this turn into unexpected active days, especially with tornado threats, I wont be surprised to see a few hooks tomorrow on any storms riding the warm front.......strong mid level wly flow with SE/S flow at the surface could make it interesting for a few hrs. I can't remember the last time I heard thunder. Really. We don't even have a severe season around here anymore. It won't storm tomorrow either. We'll get some sprinkles or some anvil blow-off. That's about it. You might do better down east, downeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 That just means they will be off shore tomorrow or further west and we will get a "surprise." The forecasts for storms have been wrong all spring. We will probably get some tomorrow since they are downplaying it here now. Been like that since last spring. We get strong storms when there isn't much talk of them, and nothing when they are talked up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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