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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Solak posted this in the pattern thread. Sounds like Sunday could be a little more active.

 

RAH

 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY BEING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE-WISE...DEPICTING A MINOR S/W CROSSING OUR REGION DURING
PRIME HEATING. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30-40
PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...HIGHER
POPS WARRANTED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN COMBINATION WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON MONDAY THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY.

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HWO -

 

343 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11
PM...PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

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3000 SCAPE, 2000MCAPE, LI -6, 20-25knt shear here and you think that should be enough to really get things cranking but everything that pops up fizzles out......looks like north of RDU however they are able to maintain a bit better....

 

There seems to be some new CU firing south of Raleigh near Dunn that if it gets going would be the storms that get most of us east of I 95....

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From GSP...

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT INITIATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS
INDICATES SAID SHOWERS ALONG WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL GA.  PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL AXIS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING INTO/THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS.  THUS...OPTED NOT
TO LOWER POPS AS SOME CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER EXPANSION REMAINS.  
OTHERWISE...DID TWEAK SKY/TEMPS/DEWS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT IMAGERY WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

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yeah parameters are kinda sick right now for most everyone and especially east of RDU, you would think anything that started to go would explode but so far its not happened ......I still think based on the vis loop that from RDU to Fayetteville is where its going to kick off here soon....

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Looks like the Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids area got a good storm. That was it. Still a real dud this spring when it comes to storms here. Guess we look to Sunday for the next chance.

I wouldn't get my hopes up. The way this season is going, it will either be a CAD event with light rain showers or a few isolated storms. Thank you -NAO for showing up right after mid-April and lasting through the entire spring season. Glad you were hibernating all winter long.

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I wouldn't get my hopes up. The way this season is going, it will either be a CAD event with light rain showers or a few isolated storms. Thank you -NAO for showing up right after mid-April and lasting through the entire spring season. Glad you were hibernating all winter long.

It does exist, it does exist ! I didnt know a -NAO still existed ! Did a cold front come through today?
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Severe threat on Thursday (5/21)?

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NC ON THU...THEY STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECEDING WARM FRONT
WILL RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THOUGH THESE UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE SFC LOW...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL YIELD A FAVORABLY-
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. IN FACT...IT APPEARS
THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 64 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FAVORED FOR MOST OPTIMAL
DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL POSE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDE-RANGING GIVEN
BOTH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION - LOW TO MID 70S NORTH
TO MID 80S SOUTH.

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SPC has bumped us up to Slight Risk in a small area in central/eastern NC

 

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...
   AHEAD OF THE WEAK CYCLONE...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
   ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A
   WARM SECTOR LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF AT LEAST
   WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHICH IS WHERE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
   WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
   HAS TRENDED TOWARDS DEPICTING FASTER 700-500 MB WLYS AND THIS SHOULD
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK WITH WIND AS THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD.
 

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Updated 2...

12:29 PM

 ...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...   A SURFACE FRONT BISECTING SC AND SE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS WEDNESDAY   WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE SRN   APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY.  AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S   DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN E OF   THE LOW COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THE LEADING EDGE   OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.  AND   COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE BUOYANCY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR   THE COAST...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD   SEVERE THREAT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EWD OFF THE COAST BY LATE   AFTERNOON.  
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You know it's a crappy severe season when we're nearly to the end of May and the only excitement we can muster is over an isolated severe storm threat within a small area.

 

Yeah its been crappy, that said I have seen these setups with a warm front moving in like this turn into unexpected active days, especially with tornado threats, I wont be surprised to see a few hooks tomorrow on any storms riding the warm front.......strong mid level wly flow with SE/S flow at the surface could make it interesting for a few hrs.

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Latest HWO and AFD move the severe chances further East. Sorry, Brick...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKSEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THATDEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGINGWINDS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC-LOW...AND A NARROW TEMPORAL/ SPATIAL WINDOW FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN ~18-21Z IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...OVERALL SVR THREAT (AND ANY TOR POTENTIAL) IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL NC WHERE SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC-H85 LOW.
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Yeah its been crappy, that said I have seen these setups with a warm front moving in like this turn into unexpected active days, especially with tornado threats, I wont be surprised to see a few hooks tomorrow on any storms riding the warm front.......strong mid level wly flow with SE/S flow at the surface could make it interesting for a few hrs.

 

I can't remember the last time I heard thunder.  Really.  We don't even have a severe season around here anymore.  It won't storm tomorrow either.  We'll get some sprinkles or some anvil blow-off.  That's about it.  You might do better down east, downeast. :)

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That just means they will be off shore tomorrow or further west and we will get a "surprise." The forecasts for storms have been wrong all spring. We will probably get some tomorrow since they are downplaying it here now. Been like that since last spring. We get strong storms when there isn't much talk of them, and nothing when they are talked up a lot.

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