Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[yoda]

1630 nudges SLGT risk NE a tad into DC/parts of C MD/just south of BWI

 

[yoda]

There is the 5% TOR

 

[Ian]

Shear is SPC's daddy. 

[Lowershoresadness]

sun is out finally. Hopefully it ignites some good boomers later

[AvantHiatus]

Oh my, 83 in Newport News.

[NorthArlington101]

Haven't seen the sun all day here in Arlington.

[yoda]

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0277.html

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NC...SRN/ERN VA...SERN MD...SRN DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 101836Z - 101930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

   DISCUSSION...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/STRATUS DECK IS ADVANCING NWD
   ACROSS VA/SERN MD WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOTED
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN VA/NC.  SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO
   THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SUNNIER REGIONS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
   STEEPENED TO 7-8 C/KM.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE
   A WEAK MCV ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER NEAR PATRICK COUNTY.  CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RECENTLY SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...THERE
   IS CONCERN A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
   FRONT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD TIDEWATER REGION OF SRN MD.

   ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

[weatherCCB]

Looks to be some clearing of the sky to my southwest.

Warm front moving thru now. Too late ?

[yoda]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND INTO LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CHEW AWAY AT
THE MARINE AIRMASS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE 60-70S WHERE AS PLACES IN THE MARINE AIR
MASS ARE IN THE 40-50S.

A BAND OF SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE IN
THE WARM SECTOR HAS LED TO SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 1-2K J/KG IN AREAS
IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW FOR AREAS IN THE MARINE
AIR MASS INCLUDING MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MD. FURTHER SOUTH...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VA IN VICINITY
OF THE DECAYING LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMG WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
MAY MAXIMIZE SPINNING VORTICES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH
OF LWX BUT PIEDMONT/S MD AND SURROUNDING WATERS MAY GET CLIPPED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z-03Z TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE APPALACHIANS
LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

[Angela T]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NC...SRN/ERN VA...SERN MD...SRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101836Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

DISCUSSION...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/STRATUS DECK IS ADVANCING NWD

ACROSS VA/SERN MD WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOTED

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN VA/NC. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO

THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SUNNIER REGIONS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE

STEEPENED TO 7-8 C/KM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE

A WEAK MCV ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER NEAR PATRICK COUNTY. CONVECTIVE

DEBRIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RECENTLY SFC-BASED

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN

INTENSITY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT

PARTICULARLY STRONG SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...THERE

IS CONCERN A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE

FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD TIDEWATER REGION OF SRN MD.

[needbiggerboat]

Full sun here

[Ian]

If we had a secondary low on the front or the main low closer or something.. I might disregard the fact that it's in the 50s at 3p since the WF is close. But I just don't see it as is.. even down there really. Blue box ok maybe.. tor seems overdone. 

[yoda]

Sun is peeking out here now... temps rising
 

ETA: Bright sunshine now

[Ian]

There have been some big days in the Plains like this on the ground. Stay in the cool/drizzle till game time. Too bad we aren't the Plains. 

[yoda]

I am going to guess EZF and Calvert/St Mary's get the watch and that is as far north as the watch will go IMO

[StudentOfClimatology]

Haven't seen the Sun yet here, but winds are southerly, so I think the warm front has made it through here.

[yoda]

No changes to 2000 OTLK for our area per SPC... so 5% TOR prob remains in same area as 1630 OTLK as well

[mattie g]

It hasn't cracked 60 and we've barely seen any sun. I'm going to say that this one has failed.

[yoda]

Kind of odd to see SPC go 80% chance of watch by 20z and then not have one by 2045z issued.  I am guessing lack of instability played a huge role once again

[Angela T]

Have a STW here in Prince George.

[StudentOfClimatology]

April is probably the most overrated severe month in the DC area. Rarely do we see anything of significance until the middle of May.

[southmdwatcher]

April is probably the most overrated severe month in the DC area. Rarely do we see anything of significance until the middle of May.

April 28, 2002. Best storm in the history of the DC area

[Ian]

April 28, 2002. Best storm in the history of the DC area

Problem with April is we usually have good shear and bad CAPE. For a brief period sometimes we can overlap the two before we have bad shear and good CAPE. April is probably one of the higher end tornado potential months but it's hard to do.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Nice heavy rain shower here just over central Calvert and nowhere else. Jackpot! 

 

Pretty much the opposite of last year.

[dailylurker]

Well, that was disappointing lol. I watched the sky all day waiting for the sun and warmth to show up. Sun came out for 3 minutes and the temp hit 59. Oh well. Hopefully next time.

[needbiggerboat]

Well, that was disappointing lol. I watched the sky all day waiting for the sun and warmth to show up. Sun came out for 3 minutes and the temp hit 59. Oh well. Hopefully next time.

 

Yea, it's always a bummer when a tor doesn't verify and carry off your house from the foundation.

[Ellinwood]

Yea, it's always a bummer when a tor doesn't verify and carry off your house from the foundation.

 

I want one to take me to the land of Oz. They have giant lollipops.

[Ian]

Wasn't there a legit TOR in September 2001 here?

College Park.

[Ian]

Hi rez nam looks believable

I forgot it's NAM season again. #king

[Ian]

Good call by Yoda though on 5%. From here on days like this will be referred to as getting Yoda'd.