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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Around the greater DC region... southwesterly flow at the surface with fairly minimal change in direction with height. Slight backing signature in the mid-levels. Lapse rates are crap above 850mb. Vort max and surface low all the way up in the Great Lakes.

 

Speed shear, low-level lapse rates, and timing are the only good things going for this setup.

Maybe we can get a fluke tornado near the Chesapeake or in southern VA/Carolinas.

 

hey! nice USTor forecast for yesterday, nailed it :)

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

oh hai der mention of discrete cells (Afternoon LWX disco -- snipped it for Friday only portion)

 

POST SUNRISE...MIXING WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO PUNCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE OVERHEAD. REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
GOING ON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF DEWPTS
AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OH/CENTRAL WV.
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO
DESTABLIZE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT NEARS AND THEREFORE AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD GET AMPLE TIME TO DESTABLIZE
BEFORE FRONT IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IF THAT IS THE
CASE...DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND OR LINE SEGMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.
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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted

I vote to change the severe t-storm warning requirements for the MA. We all know LWX issues them like HWOs, so I think we should make it official. 40 MPH winds instead of 58, and .25" hail instead of 1".

 

Although, we may not even meet the new criteria. We must go lower. Maybe 35 MPH winds and heavy rain with 1 lightning strike within a 100-mile radius?

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Ian

Ian

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I was waiting on your verdict. I'm out.

On a serious note though, I'm hoping to get much better at analyzing the landscape before and during storm periods. I kinda know what top line features to look for, but reading the various sources of data (soundings, hodographs) has proven tough.

It's not a terrible look for this early in the season. I'm prepared to take my camera to work. The main 500 low and vorticity and the bulk of the big wind shear is a bit too NW but we've got enough. Fairly strong system.. if we can kick the CAD efficiently it could be something.. tor odds seem minimal unless terrain influence.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

It's not a terrible look for this early in the season. I'm prepared to take my camera to work. The main 500 low and vorticity and the bulk of the big wind shear is a bit too NW but we've got enough. Fairly strong system.. if we can kick the CAD efficiently it could be something.. tor odds seem minimal unless terrain influence.

 

I could see a 5% tor probs from SPC for tomorrow if we can get some discrete action going early... SRH is nice, decent curved hodo, and what looks to be decent SBCAPE/MLCAPE

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Ian

Ian

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I could see a 5% tor probs from SPC for tomorrow if we can get some discrete action going early... SRH is nice, decent curved hodo, and what looks to be decent SBCAPE/MLCAPE

Low level winds aren't that great.. tho given SPC's week we might get 10 hatched.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Tornado warning issued

MDC023-092330-  /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150409T2330Z/  GARRETT MD-  656 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR  SOUTHWESTERN GARRETT COUNTY...            AT 656 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  WAS LOCATED NEAR REDHOUSE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.    HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.     SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS CELL            WHEN IT WAS OVER ROWLESBURG IN PRESTON COUNTY.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS WILL
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN A MARINE INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AREAS OF FOG...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS COMMON FOR MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITHIN A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW. FURTHER WEST AND NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN COMMON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN THE COOL WEDGE IN
PLACE BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCES IN FOR LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH MORE FROM 01Z READINGS GIVEN SATURATION
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY MORNING. IT SHOULD ADVECT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.
ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 4 TO 9 PM...PERHAPS A BIT LATER EAST OF I-95. IF ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS I-95 AND THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS.
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