Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[MillvilleWx]

Looks interesting enough

 

 

Not a bad looking sounding Yoda. I think the areas off to the east over the eastern shore would show a nicer depiction for severe thunderstorms, but I think out to the Shenandoah is well in play this Friday. 

[yoda]

Not a bad looking sounding Yoda. I think the areas off to the east over the eastern shore would show a nicer depiction for severe thunderstorms, but I think out to the Shenandoah is well in play this Friday. 

 

Agree... Friday will probably be our first "real" SLGT risk day of the season with the usual hail/wind... maybe sneak in an isolated tor

[MillvilleWx]

Agree... Friday will probably be our first "real" SLGT risk day of the season with the usual hail/wind... maybe sneak in an isolated tor

Yup. I'm pretty excited to at least have something to look forward too. Might go out chasing If it looks really good. I'm going to need a great outlook to head that far south away from college though. Here's to hoping!

[osfan24]

Went to a spotter class and now I'm pumped for storm season.

 

Which one/how was it? I'm thinking about signing up for some of the classes but didn't know if it would be worth it or not.

[yoda]

Which one/how was it? I'm thinking about signing up for some of the classes but didn't know if it would be worth it or not.

 

I went to the one in Fairfax the last Monday in March.  You have to take the BASICS class first before you can take the other courses.  Its about 2.5 hours long -- but there is a break in the middle which is about ten minutes long.  You can download the powerpoint presentation online beforehand so that you can follow along with the speaker.  There is usually a good amount of people there, so don't worry about it being a small class size (my class had over 50 people).  The speaker usually allows questions as the presentation goes on, so feel free to raise your hand and ask a question if something is not clear.

[Disc]

MCS dropping out of Ohio looks very nice and a new severe thunderstorm watch issued just to the west of me in WV. Conditions downstream continue to look nice for an ongoing line of storms.  Northern guys are stuck behind the backdoor front though and looks like a non-event. I'm sitting at 78 degrees and a DP of 61. 

[wxdude64]

MCS dropping out of Ohio looks very nice and a new severe thunderstorm watch issued just to the west of me in WV. Conditions downstream continue to look nice for an ongoing line of storms.  Northern guys are stuck behind the backdoor front though and looks like a non-event. I'm sitting at 78 degrees and a DP of 61. 

Yep, that has a nice bow to it, looks to be headed in our direction, 72.5/60.3 here now. 

[Disc]

Yep, that has a nice bow to it, looks to be headed in our direction, 72.5/60.3 here now. 

 

SPC also upgraded us to from general risk to slight on their 1630z update. I'm just hoping for some thunder -- I think I forgot what it sounds like.

[wxdude64]

See several reports of trees down and 1 to 1.25 size hail with the line in OH/WV/KY

[Disc]

RNK just put this out.

[NaoPos]

Can't use the D word for that complex can we?

[Eskimo Joe]

Can't use the D word for that complex can we?

No, it's been sporadic storm reports only.

[AvantHiatus]

Looks awesome, keep us updated. Kind of jelly east of the apps. Doesn't stack up with the 2012 derecho but returns prolific memories.

[yoda]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

138 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

VAZ025-503-504-WVZ505-506-082100-

AUGUSTA-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-

EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HIGHTOWN...

MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

138 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EASTERN WEST

VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST

AND REACH THE VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL

SHENANDOAH VALLEY AROUND 4 OR 5 THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE

MOVING AT 45 MPH AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND

LARGE HAIL. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAD INDOORS BEFORE THESE STORMS ARRIVE. BEWARE OF WOODED ARES

WHERE TREES MAY COME DOWN.

[smokeybandit]

Can't use the D word for that complex can we?

Twitter says yes.

[Disc]

Lots of thunder and lightning, but not much rain. Not too shabby though. Biggest cell missed to my east and is currently severe warned.

[Kmlwx]

Teehee

Fri at 21z

[yoda]

18z NAM soundings are pretty decent for IAD/EZF/BWI/DCA in the 18z to 21z time period

[yoda]

Wedges! (21z SREF at 45 hrs = 18z FRI)

 

[yoda]

21z SREF sig tor for 48 hrs = 21z FRI

 

[arlwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

(snip)

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG AND THE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE
STABLE LAYER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE EVEN
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECAUSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL...LIMITING INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE PLACES THE COLD FRONT
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 00Z SAT...AND PUSHED OFFSHORE BY 06Z.
EXPECTING PCPN TO BE ON GOING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU
FRI EVENING WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNDER A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF ANY STRONG
TO SVR WX DURING THE EVENING TIME PERIOD. THINKING THE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING WITH A GOOD SHEAR AMT OF SHEAR AND DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH WE SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY...AT LEAST A DECENT AMT OF
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECTING THE THREAT TO TAPER DOWN...AND PCPN COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRI. AS FOR THE SVR THREAT...WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

 

[yoda]

06z NAM soundings suggesting TOR threat early on tomorrow afternoon/evening

 

 

[yoda]

 

 

I'm gathering the WF must be nearby at the time

 

[mappy]

i tell myself every year to learn how to read a hodo. can someone give the dumbed down explanation on why that above says "tornado"?

[NaoPos]

i tell myself every year to learn how to read a hodo. can someone give the dumbed down explanation on why that above says "tornado"?

The hodo is on the right. Sounding on the left.

The bigger the curve, the more multi- directional shear present in an environment. If the winds from surface -700mb were all from the due south, there's not much rotation in the atmosphere to spin things up.

[yoda]

[Kmlwx]

W We Wed Wedg Wedge Wedgessssssss

[Ellinwood]

Around the greater DC region... southwesterly flow at the surface with fairly minimal change in direction with height. Slight backing signature in the mid-levels. Lapse rates are crap above 850mb. Vort max and surface low all the way up in the Great Lakes.

 

Speed shear, low-level lapse rates, and timing are the only good things going for this setup.

Maybe we can get a fluke tornado near the Chesapeake or in southern VA/Carolinas.

[yoda]

Around the greater DC region... southwesterly flow at the surface with fairly minimal change in direction with height. Slight backing signature in the mid-levels. Lapse rates are crap above 850mb. Vort max and surface low all the way up in the Great Lakes.

 

Speed shear, low-level lapse rates, and timing are the only good things going for this setup.

Maybe we can get a fluke tornado near the Chesapeake or in southern VA/Carolinas.

 

Thanks a lot Debbie

[Kmlwx]

Around the greater DC region... southwesterly flow at the surface with fairly minimal change in direction with height. Slight backing signature in the mid-levels. Lapse rates are crap above 850mb. Vort max and surface low all the way up in the Great Lakes.

 

Speed shear, low-level lapse rates, and timing are the only good things going for this setup.

Maybe we can get a fluke tornado near the Chesapeake or in southern VA/Carolinas.

L Li Lig Ligh Light Light - LIGHT GUSTY WINDS!!! woooo

I mean we ARE DC so it's probably going to be a nothing.