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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
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Despite some pretty colors on the severe composite graphics, the wind fields look fairly unidirectional. I could see some damaging wind gusts up that way, though.

 

Certainly how things usually pan out here. I'm not sold on a ton of activity at all. So many of those composite parameters are overblown even in the season they are useful in let alone December. Very anomalous airmass tho for sure. I'm curious to see if we actually realize anything close to 1500 surface CAPE.

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yoda

yoda

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Despite some pretty colors on the severe composite graphics, the wind fields look fairly unidirectional. I could see some damaging wind gusts up that way, though.

Quite possible, but there is decent curvature to the hodograph and both SRH at the 0-3km and the 1km levels are 200+... which leads me to believe that there is a chance for an isolated tornado risk

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high risk

high risk

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    Yeah, the NAM nest has been consistent with one of the lines that develops in the Ohio Valley later today maintaining itself through the night and coming through here early tomorrow morning.   That timing would usually be very unfavorable for us, but the NAM has something like 72/67 here by that time, leading to 500-1000 j/kg of cape.    The shear will be pretty ridiculous, so *if* that scenario were to play out, you could certainly have an early morning severe threat here.

 

 

The NAM has activity already in the area by like 14z. Early activity - it doesn't look particularly impressive either. Gusty showers ftw

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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Does time of day really matter on Dec 24th when we really aren't counting on the sun to destabilize? 

 

I had similar thoughts. My gut as usual is that we'll fail on any threat other than a gusty shower or tstorm. Maybe an isolated spinny in the typical spinny spots. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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    Yeah, the NAM nest has been consistent with one of the lines that develops in the Ohio Valley later today maintaining itself through the night and coming through here early tomorrow morning.   That timing would usually be very unfavorable for us, but the NAM has something like 72/67 here by that time, leading to 500-1000 j/kg of cape.    The shear will be pretty ridiculous, so *if* that scenario were to play out, you could certainly have an early morning severe threat here.

How often do we see 1000 CAPE in December in the morning. Toasty December for sure. If nothing else we'll remember this as one of the warmer Christmas holidays,

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yoda

yoda

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How often do we see 1000 CAPE in December in the morning. Toasty December for sure. If nothing else we'll remember this as one of the warmer Christmas holidays,

 

Not very often, but NAM did suggest what high risk said... decent line crosses through the region and with the shear in place, even 500 SBCAPE might do the trick.  Plus, NAM's SRH values are just silly... case in point, here is the IAD sounding for 15z THUR:

 

post-397-0-03347400-1450897558_thumb.png

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