Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[AvantHiatus]

Fricken Jackpotville

 

Someone has the name Suckville on the forum or Suckcity, can't remember.

[mappy]

Fricken Jackpotville

️

[yoda]

I don't think we are all done just yet... look to the SW and W

[yoda]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRI AND SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED IN N PA THIS EVENING WHILE A TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH SHEAR IS STILL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH 40 KTS AT 1K FT. THE 00Z IAD RAOB DEPICTS A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WITH A RECORD BREAKING PWAT OF 1.86 IN FOR TODAY.
THERE IS LESS CLOCKWISE TURNING IN THE 0-6KM LAYER BUT SPEED SHEAR
IS STILL PRESENT. ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
EVIDENT ON THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH NE MD TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE IS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE 10PM-2AM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS MORE PRONOUNCED
HOWEVER THIS JET WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
THE THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH.

[Ian]

Hard to rule something out but looks like most of the best ingredients went along with that first line. Could mix some winds down perhaps.

[Ian]

That PWAT is quite impressive. Eyeballing it's second highest from here through all of April.

 

[AvantHiatus]

That PWAT is quite impressive. Eyeballing it's second highest from here through all of April.

 

Do you have the date for the record max November anomaly?

[yoda]

Storms coming in from the SW...

[yoda]

Just had a CG lightning strike with decent thunder

[MN Transplant]

Just had a CG lightning strike with decent thunder

Yeah, heard one too. Looks good just S of me. Enjoy, DC.

[yoda]

Yeah, heard one too. Looks good just S of me. Enjoy, DC.

 

Headed right into DC... enjoy Ian

[high risk]

thunder here in southern Howard County too.   Congrats DC!

[North Balti Zen]

Thunder finally in balt city with this current line. Plenty rainy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ian]

Do you have the date for the record max November anomaly?

11/6 0z.. doesn't have date unfortunately. Can't seem to quickly figure it out either. 

 

Might be 2003?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAD/2003/11/05/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Washington&req_state=DC&reqdb.zip=20068&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

[Ian]

Not sure how to translate that to inches.. wish you could change what the output type is in ESRL. That and K for temps. :/ 

 

[AvantHiatus]

11/6 0z.. doesn't have date unfortunately. Can't seem to quickly figure it out either. 

 

Might be 2003?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAD/2003/11/05/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Washington&req_state=DC&reqdb.zip=20068&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

That looks nutty, probably is 2003. There is our heavy thunderstorm event we. missed

[Ian]

Twitter has the answers. That's gotta be it. 

 

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/659744186296500224

[Ian]

That date had severe weather too

 

[yoda]

meh isolated storm Friday evening?

[mattie g]

meh isolated storm Friday evening?

 

I trust that this thread will be filled with the sounds of you talking to yourself if so.

[mattie g]

 

[Ian]

Timing's off and there's basically no instability as is now but this sys next week might be worth watching for a wind threat at least.

 

[yoda]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0358 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015  

 

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z  

   

..DISCUSSION  

 

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN  

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN CA AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE  

DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  

POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN  

THE FOUR CORNER REGION. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY  

OCCUR IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION  

OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS THREAT  

WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM  

AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN  

AGREEMENT...MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE  

SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING  

NEGATIVELY-TILTED. AT THE SFC...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST  

TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON  

WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS  

AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP  

DURING THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE  

COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR  

PROFILES COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR  

TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR  

PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS  

VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY  

NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING/DAY 6.  

THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE  

POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ALONG THE ERN  

SEABOARD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

[yoda]

Timing's off and there's basically no instability as is now but this sys next week might be worth watching for a wind threat at least.

 

 

12z GFS sounding at KIAD at 120 hrs has impressive shear and impressive SRH... but no instability... granted it is at 7am lol

[Kmlwx]

Meh - pencil thin line of gusty showers FTL

[yoda]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0342 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2015   VALID 111200Z - 161200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN   IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG   TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF   THE PERIOD IN THE CNTRL PLAINS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 85   TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS JET MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD INTO   THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 AS A COLD FRONT   ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS   EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE OZARKS   EARLY IN THE DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S F ALONG THE   FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED   WITH THE FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER   SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SOME   TORNADOES. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE   MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT   EVENTUALLY REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY/DAY 5...THE   ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THE FRONT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS   AND ONTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY   DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE   MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER   CONCERNING THE QUALITY OF THE MOIST SECTOR ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD   WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS   IS CLOSER TO BEING CORRECT...THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES   AND RESULTING UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW FOR   THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY/DAY 6 TO SUNDAY/DAY 8...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS   FORECAST TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. MAKING CONDITIONS   UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.   ..BROYLES.. 11/08/2015

[mattie g]

Meh - pencil thin line of gusty showers FTL

"Mid-Atlantic Severe."

[Kmlwx]

"Mid-Atlantic Severe."

 

Tho with that said I can recall a few sparse times when really strong 500mb features did deliver something more than gusty showers - it's not all that common tho  

Let's just say this - I'm not expecting much right now. 

[Amped]

Great setup for the Ohio Valley, south of the Ohio river. We're not getting surface temps out of the 50s.

[yoda]

Thursday?  From LWX morning disco:

 

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD CENTRAL
CANADA...EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THE RIDGING IS
SQUEEZED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE SHARPNESS AND DEPTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WIND FIELD AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A THURSDAY FROPA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ISENTROPIC-DRIVEN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST...THE
FORECAST WILL FEATURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES...MANY SOLUTIONS SHOW A 40+ KT JET AT 925 MB
CROSSING THE AREA...WHICH WOULD POSE HIGH GRADIENT WIND CONCERNS. IN
ADDITION WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...POTENTIAL FOR SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES (DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION) AND VERY STRONG
SHEAR...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD POSE A
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DIFFICULT TO DETAIL THESE THREATS IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS JUNCTURE GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SPECIFICS DETERMINED
BY HOW QUICKLY THE CAD WEDGE ERODES AND THEN FRONTAL TIMING (WELL
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE IF FROPA SLOWER).