Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Scraff]

From the latest discussion:

 

Deepening low pressure will bring an increasing threat from
damaging storms later today into tonight. The wind shear is
there...and instability seems promising across at least central Virginia
and S Maryland. As for instigators...there are 3 waves evident on
regional radar...one over central Maryland and Nova...two entering west
WV...and 3 over Indiana. Based on the latest mesoscale modeling...just
about all are forecasting organized convection later today into
this evening...but they all differ substantially on where. Based
on temperatures and dewpoints right now...am leaning towards the hrrr which
has consistently placed that in central Virginia and S Maryland. That
said...it has been weaker with it recently. The NAM fire weather nest
was square over District of Columbia/balt metros...and the NSSL WRF was somewhat in
between. The risk is there...we will just have to wait it out and
see how this evolves. Our entire area is under slight risk for
damaging winds hail and tornado. No watch or even watch
discussions at this point here. 

[Kmlwx]

Heavy shower near HGR tops only near 10kft

[Ian]

I saw half a minute of sun. CAPE may have soared by 5.

[Bob Chill]

I was hoping for the elusive foot of hail but it's looking unlikely to happen at this time

[yoda]

20z OTLK is same -- 5/5/15... no changes to SPC disco for our region

[Ian]

At least we aren't busting as badly as the folks in the watches.

[AvantHiatus]

Bizarre event, token torrential downpour.

[yoda]

At least we aren't busting as badly as the folks in the watches.

 

Just as you say that.. TOR pops up in the watchbox with tor sirens going off in downtown Nashville

 

ETA: Spotters report funnel cloud

[yoda]

Off to our SW... double meh

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0203.html

[Kmlwx]

Off to our SW... double meh

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0203.html

but it's well to the W of the 5 percent risk yoda

[yoda]

but it's well to the W of the 5 percent risk yoda

 

True... maybe we'll get a meh MD in an hour or two for something

[Kmlwx]

True... maybe we'll get a meh MD in an hour or two for something

PDS Tornado Watch for us this evening. Tornadoes to the size of jupiter. 

[yoda]

PDS Tornado Watch for us this evening. Tornadoes to the size of jupiter. 

 

I was hoping more along the line of tornadoes to the size of Andromeda, but I guess I will accept to the size of Jupiter

[Kmlwx]

I was hoping more along the line of tornadoes to the size of Andromeda, but I guess I will accept to the size of Jupiter

That's coming in May/June

[AvantHiatus]

That's coming in May/June

[Yeoman]

Our severe weather comes in June.. you all are wasting your time

[Ian]

Just as you say that.. TOR pops up in the watchbox with tor sirens going off in downtown Nashville

ETA: Spotters report funnel cloud

Yeah 1 tor warning pretty much equals a 10% tor area and a high probability tornado watch with mention of intense tornadoes.

[Ian]

Our severe weather comes in June.. you all are wasting your time

We can get good stuff by April. Still a bit early at the moment.

[AvantHiatus]

meh'clusters and what not. Nothing to see here.

[dailylurker]

meh'clusters and what not. Nothing to see here.

Cape May always seems to get crushed. Some of the best lightning i've ever seen was from Cape May.

[AvantHiatus]

Cape May always seems to get crushed. Some of the best lightning i've ever seen was from Cape May.

Once the water temps flip to their tropical mode, it gets even crazier. This was a nice bonus for so early.

 

I've lived in many places but CM has a dual personality and is prone to extremes on a intra-seasonal level. The lightning thing may just be an effect of not having as many obstructions. I'll be expanding my setup this summer, will try to get some 'Ian-level' photographs of storms.

[dailylurker]

It is definitely a awesome place for storm viewing. I've been there for lots of great lightning shows. I always like looking out at the lighthouse. You know that spot I'm sure.

[Yeoman]

We can get good stuff by April. Still a bit early at the moment.

 

Agreed.. We can also get good stuff in Oct/Nov with a tropical system.. best chances for severe storms in this area has always been in June/July

[yoda]

Looks like Tuesday is our next day for a chance of a meh storm

[Kmlwx]

Call me when we get our first ENH risk. 

[yoda]

Call me when we get our first ENH risk. 

 

See you in a few months

[Kmlwx]

See you in a few months

We have a day 5 15% risk from SPC. 

[yoda]

We have a day 5 15% risk from SPC. 

 

Meh

THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPID EWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE OH/TN  VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...AND ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS  THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DAY 5 /FRI 4-10/.  WITH AN AMPLY UNSTABLE AND  SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO EXIST IN LEE OF THE  MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND RISK  APPEARS POSSIBLE.  

[yoda]

Already shows up in the HWO from LWX about a few storms may contain large hail and locally damaging winds on Friday

[yoda]

Looks interesting enough