Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[MN Transplant]

Impressive dew points.  70s showing up.

[Kmlwx]

CAPE is starting to nose in a bit from the south and east. But still looks like only a few hundred j/kg so far. Shear a plenty. 

[mappy]

Impressive dew points.  70s showing up.

 

66/65 at home. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18z HRRR keeps things interesting during that 00z time frame. 

Are you referring to this?  Looks like some showers and nothing more, unless I'm missing something.  

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html

[Kmlwx]

Are you referring to this?  Looks like some showers and nothing more, unless I'm missing something.  

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html

That is now the 19z which is less impressive. 

[high risk]

  I'm going with us getting a mesoscale discussion for either round 1 or round 2 and a box being issued later tonight for DE/NJ/NYC metro.

[Eskimo Joe]

A few brief peeks of sun and blue sky.

[Kmlwx]

Radar just looks rainy as expected right now. We'll see if anything more cellular can get going. 

[Kmlwx]

The little stuff down near Orange, VA actually has decent echo tops...doesn't look very impressive on regular radar, though. 

[Amped]

Radar just looks rainy as expected right now. We'll see if anything more cellular can get going. 

All the promising looking cells are off the NC coast.

[Kmlwx]

All the promising looking cells are off the NC coast.

#always

 

Though the Culpeper activity is still pretty nice on echo tops product. Hitting 40kft. pretty impressive given very meh thermo environment. 

[yoda]

18z NAM sounding at KIAD for 00z

 

[yoda]

~500 J/KG SBCAPE at KIAD/KDCA/KEZF on 21z SPC mesoanalysis

[Kmlwx]

~500 J/KG SBCAPE at KIAD/KDCA/KEZF on 21z SPC mesoanalysis

Not too shabby - it's been realllllly slowly nosing in all afternoon. HOnestly though something will have to intensify/form pretty soon with that VA cluster if we want anything other than heavier rain. 

[Eskimo Joe]

If we could've managed even an hour of sun things would've been very different.

[yoda]

If we could've managed even an hour of sun things would've been very different.

True, but I still think we have a chance over the next 3 to 5 hours or so

[Kmlwx]

I'm semi close to calling it.

But I"ll wait for that line of showers from Leesburg to Louisa to come through before I confirm. 

[MN Transplant]

I'm semi close to calling it.

But I"ll wait for that line of showers from Leesburg to Louisa to come through before I confirm.

Best case scenario is a little embedded bow segment.

[eurojosh]

Looking pretty decent on the radar.  Anyone in Manassas right now?

[Kmlwx]

The part of that line in MoCo looks decent. The southern part looks like a pencil thin sharp line of showers. Would love to get some ground obs from that area. 

[Ian]

Climo

[Kmlwx]

Climo

 

We should have known

Now watch us get 65mph gusts. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Best case scenario is a little embedded bow segment.

Looks like we have that...Mt. Airy down to the Potomac River.  Several nice blue-white CG in New Windsor, Carroll County.

[mappy]

Had some rumbles with lightning earlier

[Ian]

We should have known

Now watch us get 65mph gusts.

I wasn't too into it today or yesterday really. I got psyched out a bit last night.. With help from a NWS met that doesn't live around here.

[Kmlwx]

I wasn't too into it today or yesterday really. I got psyched out a bit last night.. With help from a NWS met that doesn't live around here.

I noticed that on Twitter. I think all in all we mostly didn't get to the 800ish CAPE that was hinted at last night. We peaked it seemed around or just under 500 and it sort of fell after that. I also let myself get into but mainly because it wasn't a really heavy storm year as a whole so I was grasping. Weenie fo' lyfe 

[AvantHiatus]

Yeah, too much warm sector contamination by clouds and rain. Albeit it did end up being quite warm, just a shade away from some garden variety severe.

[Ian]

I noticed that on Twitter. I think all in all we mostly didn't get to the 800ish CAPE that was hinted at last night. We peaked it seemed around or just under 500 and it sort of fell after that. I also let myself get into but mainly because it wasn't a really heavy storm year as a whole so I was grasping. Weenie fo' lyfe

We did 'warm sector' quicker than I initially expexted but it's a dirty warm sector. 500mb patterning is a bit simplistic I guess but it generally works. Better positioning may have given the extra kick needed. Ehh. 5 more months of this crap.

[Ian]

Fricken Jackpotville

[Eskimo Joe]

IIRC, that's the 235th SVR issued by LWX this year.  Wonder what the mean is?

 

Disclaimer:  Not insinuating over/under warning, just a general statistical curiosity.