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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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NinjaWarrior2

NinjaWarrior2

Posted
Posted

Are we looking at the same model?

gfsNE_con_3kmhel_021.gifgfsNE_con_mucape_021.gif

gfsNE_con_scp_021.gif

Agreed, I think the metro's are in a bad zone, east of the low so we don't get the steady rain, but close enough already so it's cloudy and we don't get good heating. Thursday's chances were better. Temperatures also got down fairly well this morning due to a Calm wind. We got from now until the stuff near the Mountains and Fredericksburg get here, prime area today is Central Virginia and the Delmarva, would be a day for a pity Tornado Warning but Wakefield and Mount Holly aren't like that. But you know Sterling would put out a STW for 35 mph gusts so yeah. Oh and HRRR has DC in a hole like usual, probably correct.
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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted

So, are we putting the tornado warnings in here...

Probably.

378

WFUS51 KAKQ 121405

TORAKQ

VAC073-097-103-119-121430-

/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0020.150912T1405Z-150912T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA...

EAST CENTRAL KING AND QUEEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 1005 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHACKLEFORDS...OR NEAR WEST

POINT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

SALUDA AROUND 1025 AM EDT.

URBANNA AROUND 1030 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE WATER

VIEW...SAMOS...MILLENBECK...WARNER...SLABTOWN...REMLIK...CLANCIE...

MASCOT...BERTRAND AND SENORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE

HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 7659 3767 7648 3766 7651 3765 7650

3764 7650 3766 7654 3764 7657 3763 7657

3763 7656 3761 7653 3761 7643 3755 7672

3758 7677

TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 238DEG 19KT 3758 7673

$$

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Posted

Doug K had no risk for tor in his threat graphic. I should complain on Twitter. I'll hug a 500mb setup any day. Doing that succeeds more than it fails around here. I do think one big question is whether or not we truly warm sector and maybe it leans no but my local history inklings says we do.

70 dews up to about 95 now. Too much sfc plot model hugging. Well.. Euro ftw. ;)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Posted

Area of best should work north thru day. Was thinking like NE MD up toward Allentown PA might have best chance as of last night. Air mass may be too contaminated in warm sector itself with main risk near WF. The low is pretty weak too so the sfc winds are rather meh even if backing.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Probably last chance for some meh severe... from morning AFD from LWX:

 

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE. DIURNAL
MAXIMUM LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE THE BALT-WASH METRO. 30 KT SHEAR AND
LI OF -4 TO -5 ALLOWS CHANCE THUNDER TO BE ADDED TO THE LIKELY POPS.
SPC KEPT A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE AREA FOR DAY 2 RIGHT IN THIS
DIURNAL MAX AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FNT WL BE CROSSING THE CWA FRI EVE. THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS
WL BE IN THE AFTN...BUT THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WL STILL HV
A CHC DURG THE EVE. MDLS HV CONSISTENTLY BEEN FCSTG SKINNY CAPE W/
SOME CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS...BUT WIND FIELD IS NOT
ESPECIALLY STRONG. AREA RMNS OUTLOOKED IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX
ALTHO THAT RISK SHOULD BE WANING DURG THE EVE HRS IN THE ERN PART
OF THE AREA.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

1730 SPC OTLK

 


..MID-ATLANTIC STATES    DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO BE  ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...  POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER  DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE /PER THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/  EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-750 J/KG.  STRENGTHENING WESTERLY  MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH FRIDAY  AFTERNOON...WITHIN THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES  TROUGH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35-40 KT WITH  RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.  WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS PER 12  HOUR AND ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH  PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  THE COLD FRONT.  THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH  OF THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING  WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST.  THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY  AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND  LONGEVITY...THOUGH THE FORECAST BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS  COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS MULTICELLS OR PERHAPS A SUPERCELL.  THE  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

not sure if this is better in here or in general discussion, but the line now coming into northern MD is pretty healthy, with warnings just across the border into PA.    The mesoanalysis suggests that the parameters here are not much worse than those where SPC issued the box to our northeast.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

not sure if this is better in here or in general discussion, but the line now coming into northern MD is pretty healthy, with warnings just across the border into PA. The mesoanalysis suggests that the parameters here are not much worse than those where SPC issued the box to our northeast.

Totally overrated in York/Lancaster counties. Other than the little bow segment south of Reading this is really ho hum.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

18z NAM soundings from KIAD at 00z THUR suggests that if we can get some instability (right now around 500 J/K for both SBCAPE and MLCAPE) we may see a brief spinup or two... 0-6km shear and SRH are decent

 

00z NAM looks a bit better for storms Wed evening... still advertises chance of a spinup

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