Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[yoda]

06z NAM looks intriguing for Sat afternoon/evening... but of course 00z GFS says nope

[Kmlwx]

06z NAM looks intriguing for Sat afternoon/evening... but of course 00z GFS says nope

 

Discount it as the NAM and you will win. 

[Ian]

Euro may be wrong but 0z kept a pretty solid look and upped instability. If it was right there's be some severe around here. Low runs right up the eastern side of the Apps.. big 500mb winds, backed surface. #wedges 

[Kmlwx]

Euro may be wrong but 0z kept a pretty solid look and upped instability. If it was right there's be some severe around here. Low runs right up the eastern side of the Apps.. big 500mb winds, backed surface. #wedges 

SPC marginal is sort of close. Will be interesting to see LWX disco and new SPC outlooks. 

Still assuming it will fail and we'll just get showers. Hopefully NAM and Euro are going to score. 

#microscopicwedges

[Kmlwx]

Looks like LWX doesn't really mention any severe threat for Sat in the disco and HWO. Bodes well for an outbreak

[Ian]

Euro backed off.. more too slow this run than anything tho. It's a really powerful vort.. kinda reminds me of the thundersnow outbreak early in the year. Could do something even late, tho not wedgefest probably. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Fail on the EURO for Saturday, but as Eric Horst at MU says, "dry begets dry."

[Kmlwx]

Euro backed off.. more too slow this run than anything tho. It's a really powerful vort.. kinda reminds me of the thundersnow outbreak early in the year. Could do something even late, tho not wedgefest probably. 

Pencil thin gusty showers as we do best. 

[yoda]

00z 4km NAM composite radar reflectivity looks somewhat interesting at 21z SAT

[yoda]

Hmmm

 

[yoda]

12z 4km NAM reflective radar looks fun at 21z and 0z SAT

[Ian]

These maps are silly

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=SE&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015091112&HH=0&map=SVRALL1

 

It's such a beautiful 500mb trough just seems timing is a bit off. 

[Ian]

[Kmlwx]

Always timing or something with us. That is an absolute weenie map, Ian. I'm tempted to think you hacked CIPS. 

[Kmlwx]

Another interesting note is that both hail and wind are pretty weak on CIPS. Tor is really the only one going bonkers. I guess that's a function of the 500mb signature...tho you'd still expect a bit more wind since that's our main severe type. 

[yoda]

Hopefully the afternoon LWX AFD tosses us a bone.... but it prob won't

[Ian]

Main question might be where the sfc low tracks. The best 500mb lags it a bit so unlikely our top end is an outbreak but if you get the sfc low to track west as the Euro has been showing it should at least be a slight/5% tor situation.  Wind is probably lower large risk than normal because it's a pretty high shear/low cape situation. One of those things that could be surprisingly "intense" or basically nothing but gusty showers/t-showers. SPC often plays these situations in catch up mode around here. 

[Kmlwx]

Main question might be where the sfc low tracks. The best 500mb lags it a bit so unlikely our top end is an outbreak but if you get the sfc low to track west as the Euro has been showing it should at least be a slight/5% tor situation.  Wind is probably lower large risk than normal because it's a pretty high shear/low cape situation. One of those things that could be surprisingly "intense" or basically nothing but gusty showers/t-showers. SPC often plays these situations in catch up mode around here. 

 

Euro is the most important run of September here shortly.

[Kmlwx]

Hopefully the afternoon LWX AFD tosses us a bone.... but it prob won't

They DO mention svr risk in the discussion from this morning - tho they are leaving it out of the HWO for now. Honestly if we want a nice surprise this is the way to do it with SPC and LWX playing it low end/safe. These as Ian said are usually how our catch up days work. 

[Kmlwx]

DC's personal supercell there on the left. 

[yoda]

LWX in their afternoon AFD is like what storms?

[Quincy]

The biggest problem with tomorrow is probably the warm sector/aerial coverage marginal instability.

 

Soundings show abysmal mid-level lapse rates. I'm estimating 5-5.5C/km based on the 18z NAM. Wind shear is okay, but even hodographs aren't showing much curvature.

 

18z DCA and 21z BWI forecast soundings show moist profiles with lifted indices that are barely negative. Wouldn't be surprise if a cell or two tries to rotate near the Atlantic/Delmarva coast, but guidance doesn't show much of anything being able to make it to the DCA-BWI metro areas.

[Ian]

I always root for wedges

[Kmlwx]

I always root for wedges

 

TBH anything that is a break from wall to wall sun is going to be nice. It's been ridiculously boring. 

[Ian]

TBH anything that is a break from wall to wall sun is going to be nice. It's been ridiculously boring.

Doug K had no risk for tor in his threat graphic. I should complain on Twitter. I'll hug a 500mb setup any day. Doing that succeeds more than it fails around here. I do think one big question is whether or not we truly warm sector and maybe it leans no but my local history inklings says we do.

[Kmlwx]

Doug K had no risk for tor in his threat graphic. I should complain on Twitter. I'll hug a 500mb setup any day. Doing that succeeds more than it fails around here. I do think one big question is whether or not we truly warm sector and maybe it leans no but my local history inklings says we do.

Yes - wouldn't be a DC svr threat without one or two of the typical caveats. The 500mb presentation is quite impressive as you noted. If nothing else it's nice to look at an impressive map again. Not surprised about Doug K lol

[yoda]

Eh, both of LWX's local model runs of the NMM4N simulated reflectivity and the ARW4N simulated reflectivity based off the 18z run for early afternoon for around here looks... somewhat interesting...

[AvantHiatus]

0z GFS soundings look solid locally. I think this is the most substantial Tor threat in years east of the bay.

[Quincy]

0z GFS soundings look solid locally. I think this is the most substantial Tor threat in years east of the bay.

Are we looking at the same model?

[NinjaWarrior2]

Are we looking at the same model?

Agreed, I think the metro's are in a bad zone, east of the low so we don't get the steady rain, but close enough already so it's cloudy and we don't get good heating. Thursday's chances were better. Temperatures also got down fairly well this morning due to a Calm wind. We got from now until the stuff