Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Our first catch of the day... wonder if some of these cells will make it up here into DC metro this evening...

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

448 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  

 

* AT 447 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHIPMAN...OR 12 MILES  

NORTHEAST OF CLIFFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

SHIPMAN...SCHUYLER...SCOTTSVILLE...ROCKFISH...LOVINGSTON...KEENE...  

ELMA...DAMON...ARRINGTON...FABER...GLENDOWER...ESMONT AND ALBERENE.  

 

This one won't make it up to you guys as it is literally vanishing before my eyes on our skycam. lol. Did have a nice hail signature (as good of one you can have for the radar being 70+ miles away) for a while in eastern Nelson County. 

 

ETA: Here's a look at the storm from Fluvanna County. Not much to show right now...

[famartin]

Storms are moving mostly west to east so just watch the storms west of DC

[yoda]

Hail core in the Warren County cell

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
540 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
THE NORTHWESTERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...  
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  
NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM EDT  
 
* AT 540 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTH POTOMAC TO NEAR RESTON...AND MOVING EAST  
AT 25 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ROCKVILLE...BETHESDA...OLNEY...RESTON...TAKOMA PARK...CHEVY  
CHASE...MARTIN'S ADDITIONS...NORTH CHEVY CHASE...ROSSMOOR...  
FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE...WHITE OAK...NORTH KENSINGTON...NORTH  
BETHESDA...GREAT FALLS...WHEATON-GLENMONT...FOREST GLEN...ASPEN  
HILL...KEMP MILL...POTOMAC AND SOUTH KENSINGTON.  

[yoda]

Small but decent hail core on the FFX/Montgomery county lines

[MN Transplant]

Shocking twist that a storm is headed to the 495/270 area.

[AmericanWxFreak]

To my weenie eyes, I see a small hook and a bit of rotation on that Great Falls cell. 

[The Dude]

To my weenie eyes, I see a small hook and a bit of rotation on that Great Falls cell. 

 

I saw that, but I thought it looked more like a microburst as the velocities were all propagating away from a central point.

[09-10 analogy]

I've seen a few prodigious lightning displays so far, and the one hailer that cracked my windshield (when I was stupidly driving through it), but at least IMNOTW, there hasn't been much wind. This incoming one has promise.

 

Hallucination appendage on the radar about to cross the river.

 

EDIT: Ninja'd above!

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
602 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM EDT  
 
* AT 602 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER PINEY POINT...AND MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SAINT INIGOES CREEK...LEXINGTON PARK...SAINT GEORGE ISLAND...SAINT  
MARYS CITY...SAINT MARYS RIVER...PARK HALL...SCOTLAND...DRAYDEN...  
DAMERON...SAINT INIGOES AND RIDGE.

[yoda]

Almost looks like a train of storms moving from west to east if you watch the radar

[yoda]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
611 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
MDC037-042245-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-150804T2245Z/  
ST. MARYS MD-  
611 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT  
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY...  
 
AT 611 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL  
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE  
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAINT MARYS RIVER TO NEAR  
SAINT INIGOES CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SAINT INIGOES CREEK...LEXINGTON PARK...SAINT GEORGE ISLAND...SAINT  
MARYS CITY...SAINT MARYS RIVER...PARK HALL...SCOTLAND...DRAYDEN...  
DAMERON...SAINT INIGOES AND RIDGE. 

[09-10 analogy]

Storm is moving due east. A bit less promising. Fringe warning in effect.

Cells in DC area moving due east but the ones down around the Northern Neck on more of a SW-NE trajectory.

[dailylurker]

Wow. That storm that north of DC sure did go meh.

[yoda]

Hail core just popped up in the last scan in Fairfax...

[mattie g]

Yes it did. Normally I'm not terribly imby when it comes to severe but after seeing Boston get 2" hail today I'm on edge lol.

You need to move back...

[StudentOfClimatology]

New England (usually) sucks at everything but snow and marine air. I'd never want to move there.

[T. August]

Hey now, I'm not some Philly mofo coming through to do a drive by. I suffer just like the rest of you, 365 .

[09-10 analogy]

Rogue storm tease.

One thing about summertime storms; if they fail, it's a quick process. Onet moment you've got a scan with a hook, a northwestern sky that looks like the gates of Mordor, and then ... poof, it's all gone.

 

Winter systems, the process of fail is quite a bit longer and more excrusiating. Radar hallucinations last 10 minutes in the summer. They can go on for hours in the winter.

[yoda]

TOG

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VAC001-050100-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150805T0100Z/
ACCOMACK VA-
829 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ACCOMACK COUNTY...

AT 828 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF SAXIS...OR NEAR
SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN ACCOMACK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ATLANTIC...SAXIS...ASSAWOMAN...SANFORD...MAPPSVILLE...
TEMPERANCEVILLE...OAK HALL...HORNTOWN AND WALLOPS ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN SIGHTED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE
COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
835 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
NORTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
EAST CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT  
 
* AT 835 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LINTON HALL TO NEAR BEALETON...AND MOVING EAST  
AT 20 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DALE CITY...WOODBRIDGE...DUMFRIES...MONTCLAIR...TRIANGLE...  
GARRISONVILLE...ADEN...CALVERTON...BRISTERSBURG...NOKESVILLE...  
AQUIA...INDEPENDENT HILL...CHERRY HILL AND CATLETT.  

[Stormpc]

The latest warned storm here in PW put the brakes on and is falling apart right over me.

[yoda]

Hmmm once again...

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0344 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2015   VALID 091200Z - 141200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NOAM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT   AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG   ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. EXPANDS NORTH INTO CNTRL   CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST   TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. IT IS POSSIBLE IN SUCH A   PATTERN TO EXPERIENCE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM   THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST...ON THE EDGE OF THE PLAINS   ANTICYCLONE...AS DISTURBANCES TRACK SEWD IN THE FASTER FLOW ON ITS   PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...A COMPARISON OF LATEST GFS AND EURO SUGGEST   SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE COMPLEX ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL   EVOLVE DURING THE PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN PART FROM WHAT   IS LIKELY TO BE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH   CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM D4/SUN INTO D5/MON. AS THIS   POSSIBLE MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV/SHORTWAVE TRACK E-SEWD FROM THE   MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS...LATEST EURO DEVELOPS A MUCH MORE   VIGOROUS IMPULSE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS. THE EURO FORECASTS A STRONG   NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER DELMARVA BY EARLY   D7/WED...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNUSUALLY DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR NYC.   MEANWHILE...LATEST GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS MCV/TROUGH   AND ONLY MANAGES A WEAK 1010MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY WED.   GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF DOES HOWEVER SUPPORT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR   LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK BUT   THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY LIMIT POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE   WEATHER RISK. THESE COMPLEXITIES...AS WELL AS OTHER YET-TO-FORM   CONVECTIVE PERTURBATIONS LIKELY TO ORBIT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER   RIDGE...SUPPORT LOW SEVERE WEATHER PREDICTABILITY FOR THE WEEK   AHEAD.   ..CARBIN.. 08/06/2015

[yoda]

Early next week looks interesting... especially some of the soundings that the 12z NAM/18z NAM are printing out that far in advance for Monday evening...

 

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0401 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015  
 
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION  
 
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OVERALL...AS BOTH  
FORECAST GRADUAL/SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER  
THE U.S. IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL  
OCCUR AS LARGE TROUGHS EVOLVE OVER BOTH THE WRN AND ERN  
STATES...WITH A LARGE/EXPANDING RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE  
PLAINS.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS -- AND SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE  
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS REGION DAY 4  
/MON. 8-10/ AS THE ERN TROUGH DIGS/EXPANDS AND A WEAK COOL FRONT  
SHIFTS EWD/SEWD. STORMS AND SOME/ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD  
SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADVANCE OF THIS  
FRONT...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E  
COAST STATES DAY 5 /TUE. 8-11/. HOWEVER...ON BOTH OF THESE  
DAYS...DEGREE AND LOCATION OF AND POTENTIALLY GREATER AREAS OF  
SEVERE RISK ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM. RISK APPEARS TOO LOW --  

AND TOO UNCERTAIN -- TO HIGHLIGHT ANY 15% AREAS ATTM.

[Ian]

Euro looks mildly interesting Saturday tho it doesn't get instability in till late and it doesn't have huge support at the moment.

[Ian]

CIPS has 9/24/01 on the list even though GFS still shows a coastal at 12z

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F084&rundt=2015090912

[Kmlwx]

Euro looks mildly interesting Saturday tho it doesn't get instability in till late and it doesn't have huge support at the moment.

 

That would be funny if after failing all season we got something big. 

[mattie g]

That would be funny if after failing all season we got something big.

Backloaded summer --> backloaded winter

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
749 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 748 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT TOBACCO
RIVER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA PLATA...WALDORF...SAINT CHARLES...PORT TOBACCO VILLAGE...PORT
TOBACCO...POTOMAC HEIGHTS...PISGAH...NORTHWOOD...WELCOME...
POMFRET...WHITE PLAINS...IRONSIDES...RIPLEY...MARBURY...RISON...
ACCOKEEK...BRYANS ROAD AND BRYANTOWN.

[Ian]

We see some silly warnings but that one was really silly