Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[yoda]

Maybe?

 

[wxdude64]

Had a small line headed here but it falling apart so fast I may only get a sprinkle or two......

[AvantHiatus]

meh'ville. That is rock solid if I get storms here tho, because of the marine layer and what not. I'll take anything this early, even linear stuff.

[Ellinwood]

Topic should be titled "meh storms 2015," considering that's all that has been discussed

[yoda]

Topic should be titled "meh storms 2015," considering that's all that has been discussed

 

 

I could see us sneak in a meh warning if we can get some instability

[yoda]

I will say that the 00z NAM sounding at KIAD for 21z is a little bit interesting

[wxdude64]

Had a small line headed here but it falling apart so fast I may only get a sprinkle or two......

Well, I was right. Had a few sprinkles between 10 and 10:30 as what was a line at one time this evening pushed through.

[Ian]

I will say that the 00z NAM sounding at KIAD for 21z is a little bit interesting

that hodo yo

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.0339&sounding.lon=-77.2124&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=04&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=00&fhour=21&parameter=SHRM&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Eskimo Joe]

Prediction:  2 pity warnings south of I-66 today.

[H2O]

shear

[yoda]

1300 SPC OTLK -- 2/5/5

 

   ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG EWD EXTENSION   OF PRECIP-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL   APPALACHIANS TO MD/DELMARVA REGION.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TSTMS NEAR   BOUNDARY THAT CAN USE RELATED LIFT...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW   ENHANCEMENT AND LOCALIZED VORTICITY SOURCE TO ACQUIRE AT LEAST   TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER.

[yoda]

From the morning updated AFD from LWX:

 

THIS CAN BE CATEGORIZED AS A "HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE" ENVIRONMENT. SPC
HAS AREA AS HVG A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR WX. THERE WL NOT BE MUCH
LO LV INSTABILITY TDA GIVEN XTNSV CLD CVR. BUT IF ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR TO TAP INTO AND PRODUCE A
STORM WITH TORNADO WIND HAIL POTENTIAL.

 

[Ian]

5 percented! #boom 

[isohume]

Sorry, public poll. I can't respond due to contractual agreements. 

[Kmlwx]

5 percented! #boom 

And 15% wind. Pretty surprised to be quite honest. Not sure we'll see much of anything but I'm not the expert

[Joe Vanni]

And 15% wind. Pretty surprised to be quite honest. Not sure we'll see much of anything but I'm not the expert

I'm with you. Now if the sun can come out, even for just a bit, that will make a difference.

[Ian]

And 15% wind. Pretty surprised to be quite honest. Not sure we'll see much of anything but I'm not the expert

Yeah our problem is instability.. as usual. I do admit I got interested last night after seeing NAM and SREF. But we don't seem to have much shot at any clearing so we have to just advect some crap CAPE in from the south.  I'd probably favor Fredericksburg area south and east though you start to run away from the warm front and best shear the further south you go.. Could definitely see something embedded in a line or such up to this area but I dunno if I'd be super bullish. SPC catch up? Maybe good signs for later.. we've already had a few nice wind profile days last month or so. 

[Kmlwx]

I'm with you. Now if the sun can come out, even for just a bit, that will make a difference.

 

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Maybe a break or two here and there but looks pretty meh. Shear is super nice - but we never can seem to get them together. 

[Kmlwx]

Yeah our problem is instability.. as usual. I do admit I got interested last night after seeing NAM and SREF. But we don't seem to have much shot at any clearing so we have to just advect some crap CAPE in from the south.  I'd probably favor Fredericksburg area south and east though you start to run away from the warm front and best shear the further south you go.. Could definitely see something embedded in a line or such up to this area but I dunno if I'd be super bullish. SPC catch up? Maybe good signs for later.. we've already had a few nice wind profile days last month or so. 

It IS pretty soupy out there so there's that I guess. Mesoanalysis only has a pocket or two of like 250 CAPE around - nothing to warrant a ton of interest. Will definitely be interesting to see if we can keep getting good wind profiles later in the season. Anything (unless it's super anomalous) isn't going to do much in March/April. I'll start getting more interested closer to May. Even a token warning would be a nice little bit of excitement this afternoon. 

[Kmlwx]

This image from the 09z run of the LWX ARW looks mildly interesting. Mini bow echo destruction. 

[Kmlwx]

Also the 12z NAM hires pops some discrete but not particularly strong stuff right overhead later on. 

ANd HRRR suggests interesting stuff around Fredericksburg like Ian said. 

[Ellinwood]

Forgive me if cloudy skies, light rain, and poor lapse rates at 1pm doesn't exactly get me excited about the setup.

[Ian]

Forgive me if cloudy skies, light rain, and poor lapse rates at 1pm doesn't exactly get me excited about the setup.

Thanks Deb

[Disc]

 

[Ellinwood]

Thanks Deb

 

I can't chase today

[Ian]

I can't chase today

Probably for the best. Tho you might miss an epic heavy shower.

[AvantHiatus]

Best part is that we can track together.

[Scraff]

Certainly would help if the damn sun would come out and boil up the atmosphere.  C'mon severe! 

[Kmlwx]

It looks like there's some breaks in the clouds behind this line of rain on visible sat. But they could just as easily fill in. Still very much skeptical about any severe. Tho token warning could easily occur. 

[AvantHiatus]

Just got backdoored, down to 56. Lol