Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Kmlwx]

I'm with Ian tbh - I'm on the verge of being out. Just seems too weird. 

[yoda]

I'm with Ian tbh - I'm on the verge of being out. Just seems too weird. 

I am still in... SREFs have been locking down this threat for several runs now... NAM was pretty good as well until it came back to Earth on the 12z run...  I would guess the reason as to why we all of a sudden get large amount of CAPE is that a warm front moves through the region

 

ETA: 00z GFS was also pretty nice when checking on the soundings and does the same thing that the NAM does, increase instability as the evening goes on

[AvantHiatus]

I'm almost out.

Going in deep for posterity.

[yoda]

12z GFS sup composite looks very nice

 

 

[yoda]

12z GFS at 18z THUR has SBCAPE over 1000 already

 

ETA:  I'd take this run of the GFS in a heartbeat... looks like GFS and NAM are slowly but surely coming together

[Ian]

GFS not bad.. still a weird setup. 

[high risk]

odd setup for sure.    0-3 helicity (although not 0-1) looks pretty good late tomorrow, and if we believe the progged cape rebound, the environment overall is pretty decent.   not totally sure what would trigger the storms, but he  Hi-Res Windows and the NAM nest have a general scenario of crapvection passing to our north or over us, and either the southern flank or the system itself intensifying in northern VA as it finds better moisture.

 

 regarding the cape rebound, which is driven by rapid low-level moisture advection, it reminds me a little of 6/2/97, a day when dew points started in the upper 30's here, and LWX blew off the MDT risk issued for the area.   DCA's dew pt shot up to 70 by 00z, and we had legit hail-producing supercells in the area during the evening and big tornadoes in western PA in the evening and in western MD after dark.

 

that setup was very different synoptically with an intense upper trough approaching, but the concept of quick moisture recovery and rapid evening destabilization was similar.

[Kmlwx]

odd setup for sure.    0-3 helicity (although not 0-1) looks pretty good late tomorrow, and if we believe the progged cape rebound, the environment overall is pretty decent.   not totally sure what would trigger the storms, but he  Hi-Res Windows and the NAM nest have a general scenario of crapvection passing to our north or over us, and either the southern flank or the system itself intensifying in northern VA as it finds better moisture.

 

 regarding the cape rebound, which is driven by rapid low-level moisture advection, it reminds me a little of 6/2/97, a day when dew points started in the upper 30's here, and LWX blew off the MDT risk issued for the area.   DCA's dew pt shot up to 70 by 00z, and we had legit hail-producing supercells in the area during the evening and big tornadoes in western PA in the evening and in western MD after dark.

 

that setup was very different synoptically with an intense upper trough approaching, but the concept of quick moisture recovery and rapid evening destabilization was similar.

 

You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters in our subforum. Wonderful insight and great knowledge. I'm very curious to see if this event can perform for us. Would be one of the stranger types of events we have seen during my lifetime. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters in our subforum. Wonderful insight and great knowledge. I'm very curious to see if this event can perform for us. Would be one of the stranger types of events we have seen during my lifetime.

You took the words out of my mouth. I second that first part about high risks posts

[yoda]

Slight risk for tomorrow evening... disco below:

 

..MID ATLANTIC AREA  

 
A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THIS AREA IN WAKE OF NWD  
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE  
WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE-STRONG FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR  
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A FEW TORNADOES WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS A  

PORTION OF VA/MD WHERE LARGER HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST.

[Kmlwx]

Now let's push for the ENH

[high risk]

   thanks for the shout-outs AmericanWxFreak and Kmlwx!      the discussion is fun.    I'd post more if I didn't have to spend so much time chasing around a couple of 4 year-olds......

 

You took the words out of my mouth. I second that first part about high risks posts

[yoda]

12z 5KM ARW composite reflectivity shows a nice line around 5/6pm moving through DC...12z 5KM NMM Composite Reflectivity smokes N VA/DC/MD at around 8/9pm

[Kmlwx]

12z 5KM ARW composite reflectivity shows a nice line around 5/6pm moving through DC...12z 5KM NMM Composite Reflectivity smokes N VA/DC/MD at around 8/9pm

The focus is definitely still DC and south on those with maybe just a hair of crossover to MD. 

[yoda]

The focus is definitely still DC and south on those with maybe just a hair of crossover to MD. 

 

15z SREFs share that assessment

 

[Kmlwx]

I'm sort of out for north of the Potomac. Definitely out for north of Baltimore. I think Yodaville has a good shot, though. I'll sit and hope to get sideswiped. I'm supposed to drive to the Carlisle area tomorrow night - so maybe I'll just stop hoping for storms. 

[yoda]

15z SREFs still like the high mean SigTor prob parameters:

 

[high risk]

    yes, but part of northern VA that is north of DC may still get in on the best action.   Based on the cape progs, Instead of an east-west line denoting the SVR vs NON-SVR threat, it's probably more of a northwest to southeast line basically running along the Potomac or at least something like Winchester to Leesburg to DC to La Plata.

 

 

The focus is definitely still DC and south on those with maybe just a hair of crossover to MD. 

[Eskimo Joe]

If we can manage some sustained sunshine tomorrow, I'm all in.

[nw baltimore wx]

yes, but part of northern VA that is north of DC may still get in on the best action. Based on the cape progs, Instead of an east-west line denoting the SVR vs NON-SVR threat, it's probably more of a northwest to southeast line basically running along the Potomac or at least something like Winchester to Leesburg to DC to La Plata.

If anywhere can make a tornado happen, it's La Plata.

[Kmlwx]

18z NAM hires looks good - but talk about a compact cluster/line - you're either in or you're not. 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

[mappy]

Blah just give me a shut out, none of this... Just missed me crap

[Eskimo Joe]

Gimme one more Montgomery Special© please.

[Disc]

18z NAM went bonkers again. CVA seems to continuously be the sweet spot. This sounding is for KLYH at 22z THUR. KIAD sounding is not nearly impressive, but still looks nice from 0z thru 03z

 

[Ian]

Eh NAM is moving the wrong direction generally up around here. Shear is also less as we close. This has been a d1 year more than many but we need some love. May even be mostly S VA at any risk if the trend we've seen lately continues.. and that matches up more with what you'd expect on return of quality ingredients without a heftier trough pulling stuff in.

[Ian]

Sat actually looks pretty good if we can manage instability. #wedges

[Kmlwx]

Sat actually looks pretty good if we can manage instability. #wedges

 

I'll be up near Carlisle until Sunday. Maybe I can intercept one of those south central PA wedges that always seems to happen.

[high risk]

00z NAM nest precip fields certainly imply a rapid increase in convective coverage in the local area after 00z tomorrow evening.   don't have reflectivity yet.

[yoda]

00z NAM nest precip fields certainly imply a rapid increase in convective coverage in the local area after 00z tomorrow evening.   don't have reflectivity yet.

 

Do you have the link to that?