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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Ian

Ian

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Personal expectations for storms are probably widely divergent in ways that snow is not since snow expectations are usually heavily based on averages we all talk about all the time. Storms are more nebulous.. a lot of people count scary looking clouds and three close lightning strikes plus a downed branch as the storm of the century in their backyard.

 

Chasing around here usually sucks from what I've seen. I mean, I think there are probably a handful of days in a good year it would be worthwhile.. today was not one of them.. Saturday probably was. But you need to be picky or you're really just wasting a lot of time--more than out west.

 

This is a wx board where we geek out over stupid ****. We all have different experiences that lead us here and/or to chat about stuff here. Today was solid for the region.. especially northern MD north... as models showed prior given the shear forecasts. From my POV it was a much less interesting forecast locally than Saturday as we were mainly waiting for storms to congeal and cold pool into huge CAPE. Huge CAPE is cool though and we don't seem to get widespread lines all that frequently lately.. so it was a solid day.  Right on the heels of another widespread day.. and (maybe) another.. plus last Thursday -- a quality stretch.

 

For me, based on watching a whole lot of storms roll in, anything with unique features (good visibility is one!), anything that produces more than a handful of lightning, anything that has a nice shelf cloud.. all positives.

 

I think the question still remains -- and it's academic and unimportant, but again wx board --  why Sat was a slight and today was an ENH (at least south of the MD/PA border zone). Saturday was pretty big for the region though mainly DC and south.

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andyhb

andyhb

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GFS does it too to some degree. Odd to see return that quick.. but possible this time of year I suppose especially with the kick from ET.

 

Still an atypical way for us to get svr as NAM shows in paramater space.. except it would be a way to maintain a derecho type system should one cross or such. 

 

Yeah there's a big surge of high theta-e air into the area in between the Appalachians and the warm front as the vort approaches and leads to a strengthening low level wind response. I don't really see how there's not going to be convection there to the lee of the Appalachians with the ascent from that impulse moving right into the area (if it does indeed play out that way). Most of the capping I'm seeing on soundings is from the boundary layer becoming decoupled too fast, especially on the GFS.

 

Might want to also watch for mesolow development, which would lead to further enhancement of already fairly impressive low level shear.

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famartin

famartin

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I've read this thread and similar ones for the past few years, but I have a question in terms of what posters are trying to communicate with these discussions....

 

When the modeled parameters line up in the Great Plains, people storm-chase for tornadoes, not severe thunderstorms. Teams drive a hundred miles to capture tornado touch-downs and frequently inadvertently intersect severe-thunderstorm-criteria wind or hail in doing so, but the pay-off isn't in the severe thunderstorm conditions. 

 

We know that large scale tornado outbreaks are very rare for our area, so severe weather is exciting enough. 

 

What I don't understand is this: Almost no-one in here is actually chasing severe weather within our region. So, when tracking the modeled severe-weather parameters, is the expectation for a non-disappointment-day so high that severe-thunderstorm conditions should be occurring in your own back yard? 

 

I personally didn't experience severe thunderstorm criteria today in North Bethesda, but parts of northwest Montgomery County certainly did, with plenty of tree damage. For those neighborhoods, this storm was more than a once-every-year occurrence. Was today a "shrug" in terms of meeting modeled potential? 

 

So I guess what I'm saying is this: On the exciting days like Saturday and today and possibly Thursday--- if people want to see severe weather, why aren't they chasing more around the region? I don't understand the "meh" posts at all unless people actually expect that favorable conditions *should* result in 60 mph wind gusts or large hail in their neighborhoods. 

 

I would argue the two main reasons are:

 

1) Traffic

2) Trees

 

Neither of which are plentiful in the Plains, but are plentiful here, and tend to muck up storm chasing and storm viewing.

 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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I would argue the two main reasons are:

 

1) Traffic

2) Trees

 

Neither of which are plentiful in the Plains, but are plentiful here, and tend to muck up storm chasing and storm viewing.

Yup, and you and Ian both answered this aspect of my post....storm chasing would suck in our region. 

So I tried to use today as a reference point---did today satisfy the trackers? For my county, it certainly was an extraordinary event in northwestern third. Is that enough to categorize it as a "yeah! this rocks!!" event? 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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So the latest D2 only has a marginal risk for the Mid Atlantic...what?

I feel like this has happened "a lot" recently. Slight shows up D3 to be removed D2 to come back D1. But the guys at SPC are the experts :P

The SREF got even more robust it seems and it takes higher parameters farther north now - now it looks like supercell params get WELL north of the m/d line.

By the way, I love having you post in our threads! I hope you continue to add insight not only to this threat but future ones :)

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Ian

Ian

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Just a weird setup to get svr around here. Plus there's not a great channel of instability west to get something to roll in. Looking for svr to form at 0z on CAPE just arriving seems tough. Not to mention models tend to be fast on the northward push of such. We'll see.. Hard to be too pumped.

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