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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

It's just so rare for us to get shear and instability together in one nice package that it's hard to ever expect it to come together.

Agree - probably most likely is that most of us are on the losing side of whatever boundary is there. But CVA is probably a good shot at this point. The cutoff in instability is just so sharp that a handful of miles on either side will make a big difference. I wouldn't even count out DC and Baltimore considering we are like 72 hours away - it'll be close. Again, shear certainly won't be in shortage. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
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New SPC SREF maps are better - the boundary is of course still very close but it's closer to the Mason-Dixon line now. DC is fine on this run but it's a question of miles with regards to the instability. Very bullish signal for this far out on the SREF tho. Supercell composite averages among the members are like 6-12. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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Lol 18z NAM is absolutely insane for VA (and even towards DC/Baltimore earlier in the evening) on Thursday. Likely some of the highest severe weather parameters I have ever seen in the region.

 

My gut wants to say #itstheNAM  - but it's eye opening for sure. SREF showing similar stuff gives me at least a touch of confidence. The thing I'm NOT confident in though is that we'll be on the winning side of the boundary. But when we've been in a hot regime why not go with the Ian method of persistence. At least it's not out in fantasy land. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
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Weird progression around here with CAPE wave late.

I agree and that's what's making me uneasy and undersold on this event. It's pretty narrow on the modeling too - just like a tongue of CAPE that ramps up late. 18z has very little CAPE on the models in fact. 21z is even lacking a bit.

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Ian

Ian

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I agree and that's what's making me uneasy and undersold on this event. It's pretty narrow on the modeling too - just like a tongue of CAPE that ramps up late. 18z has very little CAPE on the models in fact. 21z is even lacking a bit.

Verbatim I'd have to give this low odds.. via NAM

 

DCA SBCAPE

21 - 172

22 - 389

23 - 671

0 - 608

1 - 500

2 - 821

3 - 1674

4 - 2464

5 - 2944

6 - 2981

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Ian

Ian

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GFS does it too to some degree. Odd to see return that quick.. but possible this time of year I suppose especially with the kick from ET.

 

Still an atypical way for us to get svr as NAM shows in paramater space.. except it would be a way to maintain a derecho type system should one cross or such. 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I've read this thread and similar ones for the past few years, but I have a question in terms of what posters are trying to communicate with these discussions....

 

When the modeled parameters line up in the Great Plains, people storm-chase for tornadoes, not severe thunderstorms. Teams drive a hundred miles to capture tornado touch-downs and frequently inadvertently intersect severe-thunderstorm-criteria wind or hail in doing so, but the pay-off isn't in the severe thunderstorm conditions. 

 

We know that large scale tornado outbreaks are very rare for our area, so severe weather is exciting enough. 

 

What I don't understand is this: Almost no-one in here is actually chasing severe weather within our region. So, when tracking the modeled severe-weather parameters, is the expectation for a non-disappointment-day so high that severe-thunderstorm conditions should be occurring in your own back yard? 

 

I personally didn't experience severe thunderstorm criteria today in North Bethesda, but parts of northwest Montgomery County certainly did, with plenty of tree damage. For those neighborhoods, this storm was more than a once-every-year occurrence. Was today a "shrug" in terms of meeting modeled potential? 

 

So I guess what I'm saying is this: On the exciting days like Saturday and today and possibly Thursday--- if people want to see severe weather, why aren't they chasing more around the region? I don't understand the "meh" posts at all unless people actually expect that favorable conditions *should* result in 60 mph wind gusts or large hail in their neighborhoods. 

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