Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[yoda]

06z NAM looks very interesting for tomorrow afternoon into evening based off soundings... GFS is more meh

[mappy]

maybe we can get a meh TOR warning, with a scud report that is confirmed a tornado and break the drought. 

[Ian]

I'm going with the more meh scenario. 

[Scuddz]

Low cape/High shear ALWAYS delivers around here....

[Kmlwx]

Low cape/High shear ALWAYS delivers around here....

Looking forward to my pencil thin line of gusty showers. I will be happy if I get my first rumble of thunder for the season. 

[yoda]

Low cape/High shear ALWAYS delivers around here....

 

Indeed 

 

Just going to see who is more right tomorrow -- GFS or NAM

 

ETA: 12z NAM still decent on the soundings fwiw

[Kmlwx]

Indeed 

 

Just going to see who is more right tomorrow -- GFS or NAM

It's going to be GFS just because we are DC and it's March. 

[Ian]

Looking forward to my pencil thin line of gusty showers. I will be happy if I get my first rumble of thunder for the season. 

NAM 4k looks like your buddy. 

[Kmlwx]

NAM 4k looks like your buddy. 

I expect a max wind gust here of 28mph. It's going to be so exciting I might giggle with excitement. 

[AvantHiatus]

It is the first semi-decent passage of the year, no complaints here. I see some front-running action on the 4k before the main line, scrapes DC and east.

[Scuddz]

MOS is spitting out ~30% severe.  woo.

[yoda]

MOS is spitting out ~30% severe.  woo.

 

Is that good?  I have never heard of that before tbh

[yoda]

SREF severe parameters are anywhere from meh to decent for this early in the season for severe

[Scuddz]

Is that good?  I have never heard of that before tbh

 

HAHA no, MOS severe probs are never "good"

[H2O]

Just a rumble.  One.  Not asking for too much, am I?

[WxUSAF]

Just a rumble.  One.  Not asking for too much, am I?

[AmericanWxFreak]

Large portion of the area was just put under a marginal risk by SPC.

5% wind.

[yoda]

Soundings decent (for this time of the year) still for this evening... ML Lapse Rates around 6.5C/KM and decent shear of around 50 kts at both KIAD and KDCA at 21z

 

ETA: I know the risk is close to nil, but wouldn't be surprised to see a warning from LWX this evening

[yoda]

Looks like some instability developing... that line in WV is probably our shot at any severe, if any even develops

[Ian]

I'm going with the more meh scenario.

One for one.

[H2O]

One for one.

 

That's like picking Kentucky to win it all

[Scuddz]

That's like picking Kentucky to win it all

 

More like picking the globetrotters over the generals

[Ian]

I didn't hear any thunder but DCA did report t-storm last night. Congrats to the few and the proud in the Mar 15-31 category.

 

SPECI KDCA 270158Z 33017G25KT 10SM -TSRA FEW012 BKN044CB OVC095 17/11 A2970 RMK AO2 TSB58RAB57 OCNL LTGIC VC SW-W TS SW-W MOV NE P0000 $

 

 

Winners: southmdwatcher, clskinsfan, Troy1234, NOVAForecaster, WoodbineWX

[MN Transplant]

 

I didn't hear any thunder but DCA did report t-storm last night. Congrats to the few and the proud in the Mar 15-31 category.

 

SPECI KDCA 270158Z 33017G25KT 10SM -TSRA FEW012 BKN044CB OVC095 17/11 A2970 RMK AO2 TSB58RAB57 OCNL LTGIC VC SW-W TS SW-W MOV NE P0000 $

 

 

Winners: southmdwatcher, clskinsfan, Troy1234, NOVAForecaster, WoodbineWX

 

 

I saw a flash and the lightningmaps site had a marker around Annandale, so I assume that's what DCA caught on to.

[SomeWeatherGeek]

My weather outlook for spring and summer 2015

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mattie g]

I didn't hear any thunder but DCA did report t-storm last night. Congrats to the few and the proud in the Mar 15-31 category.

SPECI KDCA 270158Z 33017G25KT 10SM -TSRA FEW012 BKN044CB OVC095 17/11 A2970 RMK AO2 TSB58RAB57 OCNL LTGIC VC SW-W TS SW-W MOV NE P0000 $

Winners: southmdwatcher, clskinsfan, Troy1234, NOVAForecaster, WoodbineWX

We had a couple big booms and a few bright flashes. Not terribly exciting, but not bad for this area so early in the season.

[yoda]

Friday evening meh storms?

[yoda]

Friday evening still looks like a slight chance of a random meh storm

[AlaskaETC]

I love meh storms.

[yoda]

18z NAM still gives a chance for meh storms tomorrow evening