Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[mappy]

with lollys of "turn around dont drown"

[Eskimo Joe]

The models referenced in the precip discussion I just posted don't have those 4+ totals for DC proper. Mainly areas NE of the metro area into NEMD and SEPA. Nasty maximums showing up there. Tho could be anywhere given unpredictable nature of convection. 

Area that Eskimo mentioned with moisture convergence looks good for lotsa rain. 

Yea, you can see early on this isn't going to be a lot of rain for anyone south and west of I-70.  Updrafts can't sustain themselves and are just gusting out after about 20 - 30 minutes.

[H2O]

with lollys of "turn around dont drown"

 

instant carboat.  Row you f*ckers!  The Others are coming!

[Kmlwx]

Yea, you can see early on this isn't going to be a lot of rain for anyone south and west of I-70.  Updrafts can't sustain themselves and are just gusting out after about 20 - 30 minutes.

Tho it is quite early and doesn't take long being under 1-2 inch an hour rates to really pile up some totals. Probably 1-3 is a much better call for an areawide guess. Anything 4+ should be up in that area you suggested. 

[Kmlwx]

Always a good verification of low shear when the outflow from storms shows up on radar in a near perfect circle rather than directional. 

[Kmlwx]

A lot of boundaries showing up on radar. 

[snowfan]

Obviously impossible to pin down where the maximum totals are going to be today, but the 15Z HRRR has a 4-6 lolli near Annapolis. With a much larger area of 3-4" totals for the southern half (south of Rt 50) of AA Co.Yeah, that wouldn't be good. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Not liking the trends, probably another day of wasted potential.

[snowfan]

wasted potential? Was today ever going to be a legit severe day? Thought it was just flooding, if anything. 

Not liking the trends, probably another day of wasted potential.

[yoda]

Not liking the trends, probably another day of wasted potential.

 

  Wasted potential for severe?  Wait another hour or so

 

ETA: RNK has been issuing warnings

[Kmlwx]

  Wasted potential for severe?  Wait another hour or so

 

ETA: RNK has been issuing warnings

I was zoomed in pretty far all day on GR radar. Just zoomed out and seeing a lot of training to out SW. Let's see how next few hours evolves. Heavy rain main threat tho - a lot of the outflow around here could be cutting down on instability. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

259 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...  

 

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT  

 

* AT 259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WHITE POINT BEACH...AND  

MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

SAINT INIGOES CREEK...LEXINGTON PARK...SAINT GEORGE ISLAND...SAINT  

MARYS CITY...SAINT MARYS RIVER...PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL AIR  

STATION...PARK HALL...VALLEY LEE...DAMERON...REDGATE...SAINT  

INIGOES...RIDGE...SCOTLAND...CALLAWAY...DRAYDEN...GREAT MILLS AND  

POINT LOOKOUT.  

 

[snowfan]

Some nice pileus on cloud tops in the area. 

[Disc]

Wasted potential for severe? Wait another hour or so

ETA: RNK has been issuing warnings

Overperformer here. Was under a warning for 70mph winds earlier. The rain was the big story though -- Some creeks are already nearing their max from just one storm.

[Kmlwx]

Front Royal storm has been very persistent. Has a suspicious little tail on the end of it too. Looks like a touch of spin a ways off the ground perhaps. Maybe...

[5speed6]

Taken from Edgewater/Mayo, MD in AA County. The hail core passed over the next peninsula up. Parents reported varying sizes from dime to quarter with perhaps a few bigger ones thrown in. 

[NinjaWarrior2]

Chesapeake Bay is lit up with Lightning right now. Really scary looking clouds over the Bay Bridge.

[5speed6]

Chesapeake Bay is lit up with Lightning right now.

 

It's still talking over here. 

[dailylurker]

Chesapeake Bay is lit up with Lightning right now.

Just had some really fun lightning about 45 minutes ago from that Annapolis storm. Hoping that stuff down south comes right up into AA county. I just spread some cow poo in the garden. I need the rain.

[NinjaWarrior2]

Over an inch of rain in last 30 minutes.

[yoda]

I was zoomed in pretty far all day on GR radar. Just zoomed out and seeing a lot of training to out SW. Let's see how next few hours evolves. Heavy rain main threat tho - a lot of the outflow around here could be cutting down on instability. 

 

And I was right

 

Anybody get good hail out of this warning that just expired?

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

628 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

THE SOUTHEASTERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...  

CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

THE EASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT  

 

* AT 628 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE AND  

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER  

NATIONAL HARBOR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

BLADENSBURG...FORESTVILLE...ANDREWS AIR FORCE BASE...GALLAUDET  

UNIVERSITY...NATIONALS PARK...CRYSTAL CITY...HUNTINGTON...  

CLINTON...CORAL HILLS...RFK STADIUM...GROVETON...HYATTSVILLE...  

RIVERDALE PARK...CHEVERLY...SEAT PLEASANT...CAMP SPRINGS...TEMPLE  

HILLS...OXON HILL...ANACOSTIA AND WALKER MILL.  

[Kmlwx]

Yoda take a look at the multi boundary collision about to hapen near Manassas. Looks super cool on radar. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Yoda take a look at the multi boundary collision about to hapen near Manassas. Looks super cool on radar. 

Probably going to see a tower or two go up fast and then collapse on that one.

[Kmlwx]

Probably going to see a tower or two go up fast and then collapse on that one.

I think I see what could be the beginning of a long evening. Did you just see the new storms/downpours go up near the DC/MD/VA meeting point? Trainingggg

[Eskimo Joe]

I think I see what could be the beginning of a long evening. Did you just see the new storms/downpours go up near the DC/MD/VA meeting point? Trainingggg

Looks like a quick hitter north of I-70...Baltimore might get that 4" - 6" WPC mentioned earlier today.  Probably really localized though.

[snowfan]

Looks like a quick hitter north of I-70...Baltimore might get that 4" - 6" WPC mentioned earlier today. Probably really localized though.

Doesn't look like a quick hitter and there's more to come. you seem to downplay everything.

[5speed6]

Doesn't look like a quick hitter and there's more to come. you seem to downplay everything.

 

It just exploded south of Rt. 50 in Maryland around 9:00-9:30. That line moving over the Potomac bloomed out and it has been pouring since about 10:00 over here. 

 

I'm actually concerned by those heavier returns south of the District right now. If that holds together through our area, I may lose sight of the grass. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

GFS hinting at something interesting early next week. Some ensemble support too. Might even be some EML in there with the heat ridge progged to develop in the west-central states.

Only a matter of time before that baby gets to us.

[ioke09]

Perhaps some severe on Monday, with weak-moderate instability and 30+ kt bulk shear per the 12z GFS? 

 

 

 

Latest SPC Day 4-8 Outlook hints at possible severe weather early next week (perhaps Monday):

 

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH HAVING WEAKENED...THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
PROMINENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN
MESOSCALE FACTORS /SUCH AS PRIOR MCS DEVELOPMENT/ PRECLUDE GRAPHICAL
DEPICTIONS OF ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK AREAS...SLIGHT-RISK-CALIBER
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PLAUSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DAY 4/MONDAY...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A
COLD FRONT SPREADS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD...THE MAIN STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY/TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH
OTHER AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INTO DAY 5/TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
SOME PULSE-TYPE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO CAROLINAS VICINITY.

 

 

[yoda]

Woah 18z NAM soundings