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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

0600 SPC OTLK disco for us:

 

ONE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY GREATER RISK OF STRONG TO  

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM NRN VA INTO MD AND SERN PA WITHIN A WEAK  
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT  
STRONGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F  
DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED STORM INTENSITY  
MAY NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME GIVEN LACK OF  

SHEAR.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

Hopefully the flash flooding or wet microburst potential materializes today.  Already seeing some sun in Mt. Airy.

Guidance sim reflectivity on many models still looks solid for at least strong storms. Not sure about severe. Somebody I'm sure will report an isolated svr gust. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Lots of lightning flashes off that line to my nw. And there's a cell moving in from the sw.

 

took the dogs out around 10 last night, full moon shine at my house while watching tons of lightning from the line out west. Was pretty awesome

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN PA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG THE
COAST TUE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...SO THE MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
UP. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DOWNTOWN DC AND
BALTIMORE MAY EVEN APPROACH 90 DEGREES. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
MARGINAL. THE INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING SHOULD EASILY BE
BROKEN FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING AND ACTING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS OF NOW...THE COVERAGE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ISOLATED. MODIFIED THE 12Z
KIAD RAOB TO FORECASTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND IT PRODUCED
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER
THAN FORECASTED THEN THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

DC Metro is roughly 1,400 mixed CAPE...impressive dewpoint disparity between Baltimore City and Garrett County.

Not sure I agree with LWX saying the threat will be "substantially higher" if instability is higher. Shear still sucks - anything will still be very pulsey. Flooding is #1 today. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Not sure I agree with LWX saying the threat will be "substantially higher" if instability is higher. Shear still sucks - anything will still be very pulsey. Flooding is #1 today. 

Sometimes you can get some great structure shots on low shear / high CAPE days.  Last night featured some nice back light mammatus in Carroll and northern Baltimore counties.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

Sometimes you can get some great structure shots on low shear / high CAPE days.  Last night featured some nice back light mammatus in Carroll and northern Baltimore counties.

This is true - Only time I've ever really tried to get good shots is if I'm already in a favorable place by coincidence. Not doing much today so maybe if stuff starts popping I'll venture out with the camera. Whole neighborhood is heavily wooded here over near Colesville, MD. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

If you look at the surface moisture convergence on the SPC mesoanalysis page, there is an impressive boundary setting from from I-270 northeast through Lancaster, PA.  This could compensate somewhat for the lack of shear and serve as a focus for heavy rainfall.

Early look at radar definitely has more of a training heavy rainfall feel than a severe feel. My guess is somebody gets a microburst but I bet a lot more places flood. Could be busy around the area later...I"m sure somebody will be stupid enough to have to be water rescued. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Early look at radar definitely has more of a training heavy rainfall feel than a severe feel. My guess is somebody gets a microburst but I bet a lot more places flood. Could be busy around the area later...I"m sure somebody will be stupid enough to have to be water rescued. 

$20 says it's Takoma Park / Chevy Chase

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

$20 says it's Takoma Park / Chevy Chase

Yes - anywhere around there is probably a good guess. I volunteer with Park Police but monitor all the fire/PD frequencies in the county...Sligo Creek area always gets idiots before Park PD shuts it down. Everyone can't be bothered to find a safer way around. 

Wonder how bad the flooding could/will get this PM. MAybe moderate - don't think anything super serious tho. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Is there any specific site where you can get CAPE for a specific location, I.E. DC Metro having 1,400 mixed CAPE?

Sure thing.  

 

1.)  Go here:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# 

2.)  Go Thermodynamics -> CAPE - 100mb Mixed-Layer

3.)  Double left click anywhere on the map.  SPC has recently developed a Tornado Climatology / Environments sub section  to the mesoanalysis.  There are several tabs (All Tor, Sig Tor, Discrete/Cluster, QLCS/Line) that show the current values plotted against a box and whisker chart.  To hide, just left click the top of the black frame once.

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wawarriors4

wawarriors4

Posted
Posted

Sure thing.  

 

1.)  Go here:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# 

2.)  Go Thermodynamics -> CAPE - 100mb Mixed-Layer

3.)  Double left click anywhere on the map.  SPC has recently developed a Tornado Climatology / Environments sub section  to the mesoanalysis.  There are several tabs (All Tor, Sig Tor, Discrete/Cluster, QLCS/Line) that show the current values plotted against a box and whisker chart.  To hide, just left click the top of the black frame once.

 

Ahh, didnt realize that was available....thanks very much!

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

The models referenced in the precip discussion I just posted don't have those 4+ totals for DC proper. Mainly areas NE of the metro area into NEMD and SEPA. Nasty maximums showing up there. Tho could be anywhere given unpredictable nature of convection. 

Area that Eskimo mentioned with moisture convergence looks good for lotsa rain. 

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