Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[high risk]

Slight risk tomorrow for upstate NY and western New England.     It figures that areas north of here get in on the action before we do....    

[AlaskaETC]

Slight risk tomorrow for upstate NY and western New England.     It figures that areas north of here get in on the action before we do....    

 

#Bostoning

[snowfan]

Slight risk tomorrow for upstate NY and western New England.     It figures that areas north of here get in on the action before we do....    

On the bright side, it does look like marginal moved closer to us

 

4K NAM seems to keep anything tomorrow confined to 95 and East.

[yoda]

00z NAM soundings are a lil better for tomorrow afternoon

[yoda]

Yay 0/0/15

 

 

 

[yoda]

12z NAM trying for around 2700 SBCAPE and close to 2000 MLCAPE at DCA this afternoon (at 18z)... prob a bit overdone

[yoda]

00z NSSL-WRF run brings a line through between 3 and 5 pm, looks decent enough... 00z 5km ARW composite likes C MD/NE MD -- not much in VA around 3-4 PM... 00z 5km NMM composite is similar to the ARW run

[snowfan]

HRRR likes Harford and Cecil Counties and that's about it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like some decent CAPE (~2,000 j/kg) just west of I-95...might make for a nice pulser for Loudon / Frederick / Carroll with some heavier rain.  Downdraft CAPE is pathetic and shear is well to the north so another swing and a miss it seems.

[yoda]

Looks like some decent CAPE (~2,000 j/kg) just west of I-95...might make for a nice pulser for Loudon / Frederick / Carroll with some heavier rain.  Downdraft CAPE is pathetic and shear is well to the north so another swing and a miss it seems.

 

  Looks fine to me east of the BR

 

[Eskimo Joe]

60% chance of a Blue Box:  

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0803.html

[yoda]

60% chance of a Blue Box:  

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0803.html

 

Looks like watch in the next hour or so... prob NE of a line from Winchester to Warrenton to EZF

[yoda]

Weak rotation in the York/Adams/Cumberland storm

[MillvilleWx]

Weak rotation in the York/Adams/Cumberland storm

Noticed that. Bears watching. VIL way up in that cell as well in a small pocket too. Could see a hail report or two.

[Eskimo Joe]

Noticed that. Bears watching. VIL way up in that cell as well in a small pocket too. Could see a hail report or two.

Looks like the core collapsed.  Probably pulsed up over South Mountain and now is on the lee side of the terrain.  

[MillvilleWx]

Looks like the core collapsed. Probably pulsed up over South Mountain and now is on the lee side of the terrain.

Yup. If only we had good shear this could be a pretty good day for severe

[Eskimo Joe]

If you look at the 0.5 degree SVR on Sterling's radar, you can see an outflow boundary coming off the line and approaching KRSP (Thurmont) ASOS south to just east of Winchester to Berryville.  Might be enough to kick up something along the US 340 / US 15 corridor.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1250 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1249 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED OVER ROBINWOOD...OR NEAR MUNICIPAL STADIUM...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HAGERSTOWN...EMMITSBURG...SMITHSBURG...LONG MEADOW...

FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD HILLS...ROBINWOOD...PARAMOUNT-LONG MEADOW...

MOUNT AETNA...HIGHFIELD...FORT RITCHIE...LEITERSBURG...CAVETOWN...

BRIDGEPORT...CASCADE...SABILLASVILLE...RINGGOLD...CHEWSVILLE AND

MAUGANSVILLE.

 

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 227  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1255 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015  

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  

WESTERN CONNECTICUT  

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA  

DELAWARE  

WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS  

EASTERN MARYLAND  

NEW JERSEY  

EASTERN NEW YORK  

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA  

NORTHERN VIRGINIA  

VERMONT  

COASTAL WATERS  

 

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM  

UNTIL 700 PM EDT.  

 

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

 

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE  

NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO  

ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISK FOR DAMAGING  

WINDS AND LOCAL/MARGINAL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY  

SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Blue Box being issued until 23:00...counties TBD

[yoda]

Blue Box being issued until 23:00...counties TBD

 

I already see it... in VA its only Arlington, Loudoun, and Fairfax

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  

SOUTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  

NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT  

 

* AT 118 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM  

WAS LOCATED NEAR FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

FRONT ROYAL...LINDEN...BOYCE...NINEVEH...MARKHAM...WHITE POST...  

BRIGGS...RIVERSIDE...HOWELLSVILLE...KARO...BLUE MOUNTAIN...  

RIVERTON...BUCKTON...MILLWOOD...CEDARVILLE...RELIANCE...FORT VALLEY  

AND BETHEL.  

[NinjaWarrior2]

Sure feels like Summer out today, I feel like I'm in a good position for storms in Bel Air. Having a not working A/C sucks.

[Mrs.J]

Looking quite interesting over here. I am going to catch the tail end of the line that is pushing through. It has gotten quite windy and temp is down to 79.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking quite interesting over here. I am going to catch the tail end of the line that is pushing through. It has gotten quite windy and temp is down to 79.

Noticeable outflow boundary marching east through Frederick. RSP dropped to 64 in the wake of it.

[Mrs.J]

Pouring rain here now. Down to 72.

[Mrs.J]

Ok we are now on our 3rd down pour. Up to .26" of rain in my backyard. 

[yoda]

I think for most of us in VA (including DC) we have to hope for something to develop S of the line and move NE... hoping we get some storms to form to our SW

[yoda]

Meh

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Somehow DC spikes to 89...lol  

 

Little flare up just NE of Sterling when that gust front moved through.