Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Eskimo Joe]

It's a damn shame we didn't have this kicker/cold pool on Monday...we would've had a legit severe weather threat.

[yoda]

Lapse rates are quite impressive as Yoda pointed out. Essentially no instability per mesoanalysis but we shall see. Radar doesn't look terribly impressive for the time being. 

 

It looks like instability "develops" as the front gets close to us... 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE but <500 MLCAPE... local models had a line forming near the i-81 corridor and moving east toward us

 

SPC's RAP/SfcOA forecast support that at 4 hrs

[Scuddz]

Radar trends are promising

[Eskimo Joe]

Radar trends are promising

I thought that for a moment, event saw some lightning on the radar, but then figured it's just pulsing with the help of topography.  

[snowfan]

Step outside. Already have bendy trees with the strong sw breeze.

I thought that for a moment, event saw some lightning on the radar, but then figured it's just pulsing with the help of topography.  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1219 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

  SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

  NORTH CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

  CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

  EAST CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

 

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

 

* AT 1219 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

  WAS LOCATED OVER CORPORATION OF RANSON...OR NEAR CHARLES TOWN...AND

  MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  CHARLES TOWN...NEERSVILLE...BRUNSWICK...RANSON...LOVETTSVILLE...

  ROSEMONT...HARPERS FERRY...BURKITTSVILLE... HALLTOWN...

  PLEASANTVILLE...KEARNEYSVILLE...ANTIETAM... BROWNSVILLE...

  MILLVILLE...BOLIVAR...MIDDLEWAY... KNOXVILLE AND GAPLAND.

[Kmlwx]

Pity warning

edit: tho velocity looks decent. 

[yoda]

Pity warning

edit: tho velocity looks decent. 

 

Velocity looks good for right now

 

ETA: Ninja'd

[Eskimo Joe]

MESO (20%):  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md0416.html

[snowfan]

Correct URL for the meso...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0416.html

[Eskimo Joe]

Just like that everything falls apart...amazing how fast that pulsed up.  

 

FYI, for those GR Radar users out there, here is a placefile that shows the SVR/TOR warning tracks from AWIPS:  http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/grx/time_mot_loc.php?all

[Ian]

Wet wind. Zzzzz.

[Ian]

Wet wind. Zzzzz.

Mostly just wind

[high risk]

was in central NJ, and the line there was more legit - even had a little thunder.    gust front generated winds in the 45-50 mph range where I was.  71 mph in Philadelphia.

[yoda]

yay another MRGL risk for this afternoon

 

..MID ATLANTIC  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON IN A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SOUTHERN PA INTO NORTHERN VA.   
THIS REGION IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH  
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  A FEW OF THE  
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

[Bob Chill]

Looks like a 40k+ top and hail sig with the cell moving into the WV panhandle

[NorthArlington101]

999

WUUS51 KLWX 061845

SVRLWX

MDC001-043-VAC069-WVC003-027-065-061915-

/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0017.150506T1845Z-150506T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

245 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...

WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

WEST CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FISHERS BRIDGE...AND MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

JOHNSONS MILL...HIGHLAND RIDGE...LARGENT...FISHERS BRIDGE...

RIDGE...VALLEY VIEW...VALLEY HIGH...ROCK GAP...GREENWOOD...BERKELEY

SPRINGS...MAGNOLIA...BLOOMERY...GREAT CACAPON...SMITH CROSSROADS...

SHANGHAI...BERRYVILLE...GREEN RIDGE...OMPS...LITTLE ORLEANS AND

STOTLERS CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...

DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO

AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY

RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER

COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 7848 3968 7827 3946 7807 3935 7839

TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 335DEG 11KT 3958 7834

$$

[yoda]

hooray meh MD

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0518.html

[2010 extreme]

hooray meh MD

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0518.html

 from md to a warning pretty quickly

[NorthArlington101]

I'm hearing thunder, I think the storm is gonna miss us inside the beltway.

[yoda]

I'm hearing thunder, I think the storm is gonna miss us.

 

The heaviest is in FFX City and just SW of there... storm is barely moving

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
332 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
  EAST CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT  
 
* AT 332 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
  OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER RIDGE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST  
  AT 10 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  VALLEY HIGH...TIMBER RIDGE...GREENWOOD...INWOOD...WHITACRE...  
  GAINESBORO...RIDGEWAY...BUNKER HILL...BLOOMERY...GLENGARY...CEDAR  
  HILL...HAYFIELD...GERRARDSTOWN...CROSS JUNCTION...CEDAR GROVE...  
  GORE AND UNGER.

[NorthArlington101]

The heaviest is in FFX City and just SW of there... storm is barely moving

Agreed, though I think it will continue to slowly shift southward. May expand over us though, I'm hearing more and more thunder.

[yoda]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
339 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
VAC059-600-062000-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150506T2000Z/  
FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-  
339 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT  
FOR CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY AND THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...  
 
AT 338 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM   
WAS LOCATED OVER CHANTILLY...OR JUST NORTH OF CENTREVILLE...MOVING   
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.  
 
QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CHANTILLY WITH THIS   
STORM. SEEK SHELTER NOW.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FAIRFAX...VIENNA...RESTON...CENTREVILLE...MANTUA...I66 AND I495  
INTERCHANGE...ANNANDALE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...CHANTILLY...WOLF  
TRAP...BURKE...TYSONS CORNER...RAVENSWORTH...DUNN LORING...FAIRFAX  
STATION...CLIFTON...NORTH SPRINGFIELD AND WEST SPRINGFIELD.

[yoda]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
344 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
VAC059-600-062000-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150506T2000Z/  
FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-  
344 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT  
FOR CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY AND THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...  
 
AT 343 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM   
WAS LOCATED OVER CHANTILLY...OR JUST NORTH OF CENTREVILLE...AND   
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. A SECOND STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING   
NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED NEAR RESTON...AND ALSO DRIFTING   
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.  
 
QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR CHANTILLY.   
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN RESTON.  
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FAIRFAX...VIENNA...RESTON...CENTREVILLE...MANTUA...I66 AND I495  
INTERCHANGE...ANNANDALE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...CHANTILLY...WOLF  
TRAP...BURKE...TYSONS CORNER...RAVENSWORTH...DUNN LORING...FAIRFAX  
STATION...CLIFTON...NORTH SPRINGFIELD AND WEST SPRINGFIELD.  
 

[Eskimo Joe]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

339 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  

 

VAC059-600-062000-  

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150506T2000Z/  

FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-  

339 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT  

FOR CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY AND THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...  

 

AT 338 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE  

OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM   

WAS LOCATED OVER CHANTILLY...OR JUST NORTH OF CENTREVILLE...MOVING   

SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.  

 

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CHANTILLY WITH THIS   

STORM. SEEK SHELTER NOW.  

 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

FAIRFAX...VIENNA...RESTON...CENTREVILLE...MANTUA...I66 AND I495  

INTERCHANGE...ANNANDALE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...CHANTILLY...WOLF  

TRAP...BURKE...TYSONS CORNER...RAVENSWORTH...DUNN LORING...FAIRFAX  

STATION...CLIFTON...NORTH SPRINGFIELD AND WEST SPRINGFIELD.

That's impressive considering the tops aren't looking that high, but the VIL and VIL density is really impressive.  

[yoda]

Looks like its "hailing" itself out... don't see much of a hail core anymore

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

000

NWUS51 KLWX 061950

LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

350 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 1 NNW CENTREVILLE 38.86N 77.45W

05/06/2015 E1.75 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500113

$

SMZ

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
356 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
  FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
  THE CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT  
 
* AT 356 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR INWOOD TO 8 MILES NORTH OF WINCHESTER TO TIMBER  
  RIDGE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  WINCHESTER...GREENWOOD...MILLWOOD PIKE...TIMBER RIDGE...STEPHENS  
  CITY...INWOOD...CAPON BRIDGE...GAINESBORO...RIDGEWAY...GLENGARY...  
  WADESVILLE...ROCK ENON SPRINGS...WILDE ACRES...CLEAR BROOK...HIGH  
  VIEW MANOR...STEPHENSON...WHITACRE...ALBIN...BRUCETOWN AND BUNKER  
  HILL.

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
404 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
  NORTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 403 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
  OVER GREAT FALLS PARK...AND DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCKVILLE...VIENNA...BETHESDA...RESTON...MCLEAN...PIMMIT HILLS...
  AMERICAN LEGION BRIDGE...FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE...TYSONS CORNER...NORTH
  KENSINGTON...WOLF TRAP...GREAT FALLS...NORTH BETHESDA...
  WHEATON-GLENMONT...POTOMAC...SOUTH KENSINGTON...ASPEN HILL...
  KENSINGTON...SOMERSET AND GARRETT PARK.