Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[hosj III]

We had two legitimates in 2012..the Derecho obviously, and the storm on September 8th which actually had stronger winds locally.

A few of my neighbors have been living here since the 70s/80s and said the 9/8/12 storm was the strongest they recalled since the one in 1989.

Funny.... don't remember the Sept 8th storm at all. 

 

Another big underrated storm imo is the August 12th, 2010 storm. I was woken up by what sounded like rolling garbage cans, then realized it was distant thunder. The storm didn't come through for another 30-60 minutes after the loud thunder. The light show was probably the best I've ever seen here. Constant, crazy lightning and absolutely pouring rain. Somewhere nearby got nickel to quarter sized hail. We lost power due to the strong winds. Then there was a second round in the afternoon which was much weaker but did put us in a tornado warning (which did not verify)

All in all the summer of 2010 was pretty great. Record-breaking heat and three good storm events.

 

[Ian]

I haven't seen hail in years and it'll probably be a long wait given the fact that I'm back in the District now.

Good hail is pretty uncommon here.. I've seen hail maybe 2 times in 10 years here.

 

The derecho was 'cool' because it was so widespread. DC got hit pretty hard but it's not something I look/hope for when looking for storm threats. It moved fast and was a torrential downpour mixed with the best and it was dark.. not much to see etc. If it had came in at like 7p or so that would have been more fun.  Was a crazy eve and leadup with the temps.. remember standing out at 10p on the Tidal Basin with it still like 97. Yum.

[yoda]

I will be ready with the C and P warnings... highlighting the important stuff... and hyping up every chance we get with SPC meso stuff and soundings

[Sparky]

Don't forget the June 1, 2012 tornogeddan which was a personally scary day for me.  I had two cells move over the hood, the first one produced a tornado that tracked 4 miles through Carroll County and was not too far from me.   One of the few times I have felt compelled to go to my basement.....I heard the roar too!

[andyhb]

Saw JB's vid yesterday and he actually talked about severe wx...

 

And not in a "this season is gonna be lame" way either.

[Hoosier]

Saw JB's vid yesterday and he actually talked about severe wx...

 

And not in a "this season is gonna be lame" way either.

 

 

JB was all-in, basically comparing it 2011 but saying that the overall numbers may not be the same given the slower start this year.

[andyhb]

JB was all-in, basically comparing it 2011 but saying that the overall numbers may not be the same given the slower start this year.

 

I don't think I have ever seen him that bullish when it comes to severe, especially in the long range. He was throwing out some pretty serious wording.

[Ian]

Haven't seen it but one plus this year if the gulf has been pretty undisturbed compared to last year. Arguably one of the biggest issues much of last year was crap moisture.

[andyhb]

Haven't seen it but one plus this year if the gulf has been pretty undisturbed compared to last year. Arguably one of the biggest issues much of last year was crap moisture.

 

That also had to do with the fact that the Plains were still quite dry mostly last year, early setups especially in April and May saw a ton of mixing along the dryline.

 

Here's the vid btw: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-14-2015

[Hoosier]

Haven't seen it but one plus this year if the gulf has been pretty undisturbed compared to last year. Arguably one of the biggest issues much of last year was crap moisture.

 

JB actually touched on that, suggesting it will help once the large scale pattern becomes favorable with western troughing.

[Ian]

JB actually touched on that, suggesting it will help once the large scale pattern becomes favorable with western troughing.

Nice. Still not sure I get the 2011 comparison overall but I'll have to watch. I imagine it would be hard for the year to be worse than last lol.

And that's true too Andy. Drought could continue to be an issue there unless nino starts to take care of moistening things up. But getting some deeper source moisture would definitely help too.

[Hoosier]

Nice. Still not sure I get the 2011 comparison overall but I'll have to watch. I imagine it would be hard for the year to be worse than last lol.

And that's true too Andy. Drought could continue to be an issue there unless nino starts to take care of moistening things up. But getting some deeper source moisture would definitely help too.

 

 

One has to wonder whether or not JB believes what he says when he tosses out extremes.

Amazingly slow start this year.  0 prelim tornadoes so far this month.  The record low for March is 6. 

[andyhb]

Nice. Still not sure I get the 2011 comparison overall but I'll have to watch. I imagine it would be hard for the year to be worse than last lol.

And that's true too Andy. Drought could continue to be an issue there unless nino starts to take care of moistening things up. But getting some deeper source moisture would definitely help too.

 

I'd definitely say we are in a better position for good moisture return than the previous two years looking at the drought monitor and current Gulf SSTAs alone. The central Gulf is on fire with 3-5˚C positive SSTAs.

 

I'm not sure he actually is putting bets on another 2011 happening (I am surely not), but he seems to believe there will be a decent period of high activity during peak season, which obviously isn't a bad thing for chaser prospects. It would be nice to see others *cough* HM *cough* support this idea.

 

Also I was looking through twitter the other day and Sam was proposing some sort of seasonal tornado outlook?

[Ian]

18z GFS at the end of the run made me think of 2011 a bit.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Severe weenies are the wurst

[Ian]

Bastardi had me till the love thing. Sorta. He be rambling.

 

It's probably not completely without merit as far as the pattern evolution goes. 2011 is a recency bias mention though it would seem. I'm sorta in the gulf theory but also see how it can be rendered not super important if el nino does its thing at all. No doubt it'll get interesting sometime in the next few weeks one way or another.

[Ian]

Severe weenies are the wurst

You can almost see the derecho paths for July

 

[snowfan]

Was never glued to radarscope/TWC/online news feeds as much as I was on this day. Not even for a big snow event IMBY. Crazy day. 

 

[Ian]

What specifically am I looking for in this map to see where svr chances setup?

Probably nothing.. model puke.

 

Torch through Dec before super torch though:

 

[dailylurker]

Was never glued to radarscope/TWC/online news feeds as much as I was on this day. Not even for a big snow event IMBY. Crazy day.

I remember just getting radarscope a few days before that. I was blown away by it. Crazy seeing all those supercells with those big hook echos. Then the debris balls starting showing up. Thats when s::t got real. Sent shivers up my spine.

[snowfan]

We just passed the anniversary of this. I know people affected by this. Seeing pics of the houses with projectiles sticking in the house was something else. I was in Louisville on June 22, 2011 when a small tornado hit Churchill Downs. We were sitting outside at a restaurant eating dinner about 1-2 miles away when the sirens began. 

 

[dailylurker]

We just passed the anniversary of this. I know people affected by this. Seeing pics of the houses with projectiles sticking in the house was something else. I was in Louisville on June 22, 2011 when a small tornado hit Churchill Downs. We were sitting outside at a restaurant eating dinner about 1-2 miles away when the sirens began.

Yeah, that's crazy. I walked the LA Plata EF4 (strong 4) path for about a half mile. My buddy and i want down there the next morning. I saw things that day that most people would not believe.

[mappy]

anniversary of the tri-state tornado

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/03/18/the-tri-state-tornado-of-1925/

[yoda]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

<snip>

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDGE THROUGH THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 70S OVER CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT THE
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

[Kmlwx]

The first meh of the year?

[mattie g]

The first meh of the year?

Better than chasing sloppy flakes.

[Kmlwx]

Day 3 from SPC

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

STRENGTHENING HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH AS
IT SHIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY. STRONG FLOW/SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING BUOYANCY COULD
PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...GFS IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE STRONG LLJ
WILL BE FOCUSED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG COLD FRONT.

[mattie g]

Week of April 20...good time to be in Oklahoma City?

Not like I really want to be there at any time, but I'll be there for work that week. I figure it might be nice to catch a good storm while I'm there, as long as I don't get killed by a wedge.

[mappy]

Week of April 20...good time to be in Oklahoma City?

Not like I really want to be there at any time, but I'll be there for work that week. I figure it might be nice to catch a good storm while I'm there, as long as I don't get killed by a wedge.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/03/map-april-tornadoes-in-the-united-states/

[yoda]

As stated above in the Day 3 OTLK from SPC... the NAM is pretty aggressive Thursday afternoon for our area.  Per 18z NAM soundings at DCA and IAD, we have decent ML Lapse Rates (6.5 C/KM), nice SRH at both 0-3km and 1km level, around 1000 SBCAPE, and 40+ kts of shear -- all of which should be good enough for some severe storms.  This is all for around 21z THUR.

 

Also, since the hodo is curved at 21z, I wouldn't rule out a tor threat (as in like 1 or 2 isolated ones)