Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[yoda]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUST SNUCK OVER THE MD/PA BORDER. CDFNT STILL ACROSS
WVA. ALTHO CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...A CPL OF CHALLENGES HAVE CROPPED
UP. FIRST IS THE DEBRIS CI WHICH HAS IMPEDED SGFNT WARMING. SECOND
ARE MID LVL CAPS AT H8 AND H6. THE COMBO OF THE TWO HV RESULTED IN A
COLUMN THAT STILL IS STBL. INITIATION HAS OCCURRED W OF THE CWFA...
IN A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT.

TREND IN SOME GDNC IS TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN. THE GDNC SETS THAT
HAVENT CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND HV BEEN DVLPG PCPN TOO SOON...AND HV
BEEN NEGLECTED. BELIEVE THAT MID LVL COOLING WL STILL TAKE PLACE...
AND THE CI SOON TO DEPART. THEREFORE...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WL
BE DSTBLZG SOON.

DECENT SHEAR AND INCRSG INSTBY SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR SVR WX
STILL EXISTS. FURTHER...AS UPR LVL SPD MAX CREEPS UP COAST JUST AHD
OF APPRCHG CDFNT...WL HV NCSRY FORCING FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THEREFORE
WL HV DELAYED ONSET...OTRW HV MADE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST TAFTN-
EVNG. AS NAM DEPICTS...ONCE INITIATION BEGINS XPCT RAPID DVLPMNT TO
TAKE PLACE. THINK ITLL BE MIXED MODE...W/ WIND AND HAIL THREATS. FZL
AND WBZ QUITE LOW WHILE LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MDT-HIGH.  IN
ADDITION...HV BACKED LLVL FLOW NEAR WMFNT. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
ISSUED A TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA TIL 02Z.
 

[snowfan]

Almost 4:30 and radar is relatively quiet. Another hour or more before anything even remotely interesting??

[Bob Chill]

Good strike nearby. Rattled the windows. Win.

[Ian]

Almost 4:30 and radar is relatively quiet. Another hour or more before anything even remotely interesting??

 

Or another hour till we start talking bust.  

[snowfan]

You've been talking bust all day

Or another hour till we start talking bust.

[ravensrule]

Or another hour till we start talking bust.

You have been talking about busts since you were a little boy   .

[Ian]

You've been talking bust all day

I get no respect. :<

 

Delayed isn't necessarily denied but CAPE ended up only reaching about 1,000 or so it seems per mesoanalysis, mainly 95 and east.. I doubt it will go up from here. 

 

We don't typically do big events very late early in the season... so time is probably running out for much svr. Though hopefully we'll still get some storms either way. 

 

Main forcing like 3-6 hours slow.. plus the other issues. Hard to max potential. Maybe I'm wrong. 

[snowfan]

I get no respect. :<

Delayed isn't necessarily denied but CAPE ended up only reaching about 1,000 or so it seems per mesoanalysis, mainly 95 and east.. I doubt it will go up from here.

We don't typically do big events very late early in the season... so time is probably running out for much svr. Though hopefully we'll still get some storms either way.

Main forcing like 3-6 hours slow.. plus the other issues. Hard to max potential. Maybe I'm wrong.

I was kidding. Having lived here my entire life I know the odds are stacked against us. Give me a lightning strike off a transformer and I'll be good.

[Ian]

You have been talking about busts since you were a little boy   .

It looked interesting though had several issues all along. I'm not really IMBY with severe because you'd almost never be happy if you are. 

 

Closing in on 5p with stuff still struggling to pass 25k feet... eh. It had the signs there would be issues this morning for sure. Many people are afraid to come up with their own thoughts these days.. gotta ride SPC etc. 

[Ian]

Stuff NW (HGR-Harrisburg zone) looking better shapewise but that area doesn't have very good instability per mesoanalysis. 

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC meso analysis for the watch area suggests LCLs are too high for sustained rotation based on climatology locations along and east of I-81.  Effective shear is adequate, but the CAPE is not.  Looks like the wild card remains the interaction with the frontal surface boundary as the convective environment continues to evolve.  

[snowfan]

A few rumbles of thunder.....

[smokeybandit]

 Pea-sized hail here

[yoda]

Our first catch of the day in the LWX CWA

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
522 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTH CENTRAL ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...  
  NORTHEASTERN MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM EDT  
 
* AT 522 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
  OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CUMBERLAND...AND MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  CUMBERLAND...RIDGELEY...WILEY FORD...WOLFE MILL...PLEASANT VALLEY  
  IN ALLEGANY COUNTY...FLINTSTONE AND NORTH BRANCH.  
 

[snowfan]

You're just a few miles from me and I didn't get a drop. Slid by just to my west. 

 Pea-sized hail here

[yoda]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0401 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...SWRN NJ...MD...DE...NRN VA  
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...  
 
VALID 202101Z - 202300Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA  
THROUGH THE EVENING.  
 
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN A  
LEADING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO VA. MODIFIED 18Z  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE...AND  
VAD WINDS SHOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR  
SUPERCELLS CONTAINING HAIL.  
 
WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM SEVERITY BUT  
WITH TIME...STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE SHEAR  
CONTINUES TO ACT ON THEM. IN ADDITION...OTHER CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT FROM SERN PA INTO SRN NJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL  
SHEAR IS STRONGEST. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A  
TORNADO.

[mappy]

Nice and sunny up here, cell coming out of Reisterstown has some lightning with it. Maybe it can go severe before reaching me

[NinjaWarrior2]

Decent cell over/just east of BWI right now, lightning in it and maybe some hail.

[Ian]

Must be a reason but why use a modified sounding v meso analysis? Meso analysis is modeled but still seems you'd have a decent use off it. No CAPE increase there lately and we are past peak heating.

[smokeybandit]

Another small but potent cell about to pass overhead

[SmokeEater]

Those cells east of DC are getting stronger as they go north. We shall see...

[dailylurker]

The cell to my NE.

image.jpg

I'm actually under that. Robust little downpour along with a couple rumbles of thunder. Only lasted a few minutes. Cool shot.

[Ian]

Stuff west of 81 looks a bit more legit. Shear increasing and must finally be getting push from approaching 500vort out west.

[smokeybandit]

Another small but potent cell about to pass overhead

 

  Well that was uneventful.  An awful lot more red on radar than in reality

[Ian]

First tor warning in PA up where more expected tho.

[snowfan]

Congrats PA. Stuff out along the PA Turnpike and along I-99 looks much better than anything around here. 

[MN Transplant]

If I squint really hard at the Andrews TDWR and only look at reflectivity...

You can really see the difference in our storms vs Penn.'s via the VILs.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Neat sky earlier...

 

[Ian]

Basically everything is better north except CAPE. They're doing pretty well in a low cape environment tho.

Cell near bay got warned.

It is close I suppose. If this all arrived like 3-4 hours earlier.

[Ian]

Blarg should have gone to the Mall. Sunset/blue hour lightning potential.