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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

I really should be fully focused on today's threat, but the 12z NAM CONUS nest has a nice squall line moving through the area during early to mid-afternoon Wednesday.   The progged CAPE isn't great due to limited low-level moisture, but good lapse rates and impressive deep-layer shear (much better than today's) may compensate for that.    Right now, the SPC day 3 doesn't even have us in general thunder, but the overnight GFS/NAM runs to me all suggested that at least a band of showers with embedded thunder is possible here.    If the NAM is correct with its sfc heating, we could be looking at a decent threat.

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Ian

Ian

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I really should be fully focused on today's threat, but the 12z NAM CONUS nest has a nice squall line moving through the area during early to mid-afternoon Wednesday.   The progged CAPE isn't great due to limited low-level moisture, but good lapse rates and impressive deep-layer shear (much better than today's) may compensate for that.    Right now, the SPC day 3 doesn't even have us in general thunder, but the overnight GFS/NAM runs to me all suggested that at least a band of showers with embedded thunder is possible here.    If the NAM is correct with its sfc heating, we could be looking at a decent threat.

Shear is hefty and vort max is nice but the sfc dews are potentially quite awful. Op is like 45-50 dews, MOS is in the 30s. Seems questionable for now. 

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high risk

high risk

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      no disagreement on that.   The MOS numbers would kill the threat, but the 12z NAM and 6z GFS forecast soundings have some cape due to those mid 40's or so low-level dew points and the excellent lapse rates.    It may very well end up just being a gusty line of showers, but if it heats to near 70 like the NAM says, the soundings have a strong inverted-V structure that would allow strong momentum to be mixed down in the presence of good updrafts/downdrafts.

 

      now back to today's threat......

 

Shear is hefty and vort max is nice but the sfc dews are potentially quite awful. Op is like 45-50 dews, MOS is in the 30s. Seems questionable for now. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

1630 OTLK keeps ENH... 2/30/30... below is the disco for our region

 

..WV/VA  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA BY  
MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING EMERGES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE  
APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING  
STORMS...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED STORM MODE WITH  
SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE  
MAIN THREAT.  IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE...ISOLATED  
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
  
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Disc

Disc

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This might be worth an hour drive to the east. Might be a good structure day.

 

...WV/VA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA BY
MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING EMERGES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED STORM MODE WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREAT. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE...ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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