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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Posted

To be fair - Yoda and I probably would have been excited by any 30% even before the outlook change. Weenies fo' life.

Yeah 30 is good. More our typical 'this actually might happen' day around here at least.
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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
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Seeing some backing around 400-500mb both on the 12z IAD sounding and on forecast soundings. Today shall be a lightning+structure day. I'll likely be chasing up into southern PA today closer to the warm front... maybe there will be enough low-level shear to make up for the backing in the mid-to-upper levels.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.
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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Question, why is LWX concerned about a h3 speed max sliding up the coast in their disco?  Does it enhance wind potential?

That's actually a good point on their part... something I hadn't looked at yet. Left-exit region of the upper-level jet = better divergence aloft and better storm potential.

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