Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Ian]

Bulk shear is marginal and the main forcing seems like it will come late. Those analogs must be weighted by something/s hefty. Doesn't seem sfc winds will be too exciting tor wise either. 

[Kmlwx]

Analog-based tornado probs using the top severe analogs:

Jackpot over my house  

[Kmlwx]

Bulk shear is marginal and the main forcing seems like it will come late. Those analogs must be weighted by something/s hefty. Doesn't seem sfc winds will be too exciting tor wise either. 

One of the results of 04/17/2011 looks like that had a bunch of TOR reports. 

Also 06/02/2012 lol

Those look like the hefty ones in the analogs. Lots of pretty lame results in there too...

[Ian]

One of the results of 04/17/2011 looks like that had a bunch of TOR reports. 

Also 06/02/2012 lol

Those look like the hefty ones in the analogs. Lots of pretty lame results in there too...

4/16 was a high risk in NC heh.

 

I dunno, CIPS just grabs a snapshot. You can have a trough look similar at a certain time with a much different result.  The leadup to that was much different plus there was a low that rode up the east side of the Apps that day.

[Kmlwx]

4/16 was a high risk in NC heh.

 

I dunno, CIPS just grabs a snapshot. You can have a trough look similar at a certain time with a much different result.  The leadup to that was much different plus there was a low that rode up the east side of the Apps that day.

Yeah I mean I doubt we have anything super major tomorrow. But perhaps first good shot at something "decent" for our area for the year? Perhaps. 

[yoda]

If we choose to accept it, 00z NAM predicts 1500+ SBCAPE at 18z tomorrow afternoon for most of us

[StudentOfClimatology]

How funny then that wind ends up being our most common severe hazard

I actually can't remember the last time I saw hail. Had to have been in SNE because I haven't seen any here. Tomorrow could be interesting. Unlike winter, where I just care about what ends up falling, for severe it is all about the tracking for me.

I haven't heard thunder either this year. I am really going to miss seeing storms in the distance from my (old) balcony.

It's usually very localized around here. I've seen hail maybe 5 times in my life, if that.

We did have a legitimate hail storm hit in June of 2010. I took some pictures, considering I'll probably never see anything like it again. Most of them were 1-1.5" in diameter. I still have this hailstone in my freezer..

[Kmlwx]

It's usually very localized around here. I've seen hail maybe 5 times in my life, if that.

We did have a legitimate hail storm hit here in June of 2010. I took some pictures, considering I'll probably never see anything like it again. These were 1-1.5" in diameter.

I still have this hailstone in my freezer..

Just the nature of how hail works tends to make it very localized - esp around here. Hail core goes up and then comes down and then takes a bit to regenerate (if it does at all). A lot of times around here you get the initial pulse up that produces good and then it's pretty meager on subsequent pulses. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Just the nature of how hail works tends to make it very localized - esp around here. Hail core goes up and then comes down and then takes a bit to regenerate (if it does at all). A lot of times around here you get the initial pulse up that produces good and then it's pretty meager on subsequent pulses.

Yeah, I've noticed that the more discrete updrafts/cells seem to be harder to come by on this side of the mountains, and when they do happen they tend to be smaller & conglomerate pretty quickly.

[yoda]

00z NAM is a bit stronger with the bulk shear, approaching 40kts in soundings (EZF/IAD/DCA/BWI) at 00z TUES (8pm MON)

[Ian]

NAM is nice. There's a lot of convection well west.. hopefully we don't get debris all day.

[yoda]

NAM is nice. There's a lot of convection well west.. hopefully we don't get debris all day.

 

I hope not either... I just hope the GFS follows along with the NAM

[dailylurker]

NAM is nice. There's a lot of convection well west.. hopefully we don't get debris all day.

I was just looking at that. Hopefully that stuff in Kentucky dries up and gives us a nice sunny warm slot. Looks like we're about to get hosed on overnight.

[southmdwatcher]

4km NAM is playing with fire.

[yoda]

4km NAM is playing with fire.

 

As in what? Like supercells?

[southmdwatcher]

2000 plus CAPE area wide and lifted indexes over -6 plus MD/PA border southward with just enough shear

[southmdwatcher]

And yes significant convection regionwide. Looks to be supercells and line segments.

[yoda]

[southmdwatcher]

DC southward makes the mid to upper 70's by 1pm and a pocket around the southern Beltway makes lower 80's by 4pm

[Angela T]

4/16 was a high risk in NC heh.

 

I dunno, CIPS just grabs a snapshot. You can have a trough look similar at a certain time with a much different result.  The leadup to that was much different plus there was a low that rode up the east side of the Apps that day.

 

It's usually very localized around here. I've seen hail maybe 5 times in my life, if that.

We did have a legitimate hail storm hit in June of 2010. I took some pictures, considering I'll probably never see anything like it again. Most of them were 1-1.5" in diameter. I still have this hailstone in my freezer..

I have seen hail here in PG plenty of times.Normally very small scale though and does not do much damage.

[Angela T]

It's usually very localized around here. I've seen hail maybe 5 times in my life, if that.

We did have a legitimate hail storm hit in June of 2010. I took some pictures, considering I'll probably never see anything like it again. Most of them were 1-1.5" in diameter. I still have this hailstone in my freezer..

I have seen hail here in PG plenty of times.Normally very small scale though and does not do much damage.

[southmdwatcher]

 

I have seen hail here in PG plenty of times.Normally very small scale though and does not do much damage.

Hail can be very destructive....I hope the local area doesn't have to go through that once again like the LaPlata supercell from 2002. And there were other episodes regionwide since, especially in central Virginia.

[Disc]

Good time to mess around with SHARPpy. Here's a sounding from the 4km NAM at 22z tomorrow for KIAD.

 

[yoda]

Good time to mess around with SHARPpy. Here's a sounding from the 4km NAM at 22z tomorrow for KIAD.

 

 

What does that show?  I have never seen that before -- as in I know its a sounding... but what is SHARPpy?

[yoda]

If I am reading it right, looks like GFS suggests 1500 SBCAPE or so at 21z tomorrow at KIAD... using the AMWx Model Center 00z GFS Surface CAPE/CINS map

[yoda]

If I am reading it right, looks like GFS suggests 1500 SBCAPE or so at 21z tomorrow at KIAD... using the AMWx Model Center 00z GFS Surface CAPE/CINS map

 

00z GFS:  KIAD at 18z has 1734 SBCAPE and ~45 kts bulk shear and ~1000 MLCAPE... DCA about same.

[southmdwatcher]

I am seeing the same, but lapse rates might not be as good as NAM

[yoda]

I am seeing the same, but lapse rates might not be as good as NAM

 

They are a little bit less, but GFS lends some credence to the NAM... not full, but some IMO

[southmdwatcher]

The large clear slot over central KY/TN and northern AL/GA heading our way probably means the models will verify with instability on the higher end. 

[southmdwatcher]

HRRR has us DCA at 74 degrees at noon tomorrow with 750-1000 + CAPE from Blue Ridge eastward at noon.