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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Good call by Yoda though on 5%. From here on days like this will be referred to as getting Yoda'd.

 

:lol:

 

As I told Ellinwood on twitter, I should have listened to him, and probably you, when both of you were "meh" on the threat... but I just went off soundings and was thinking that they were good enough.  Once again, instability failed us.  Interesting though we seem to be getting alot of the shear part right for potential severe

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Meh Day 6 mention from SPC

 

BY MON/D6...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY AN ERN
   TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO NEAR
   THE E COAST ON MON WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
   MID ATLANTIC...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE/WED.
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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

    Things seem to be coming together to support a SLGT risk in the mid-Atlantic Monday.   The heavy rains with the warm front should be over very early, and rapid clearing should allow temperatures to approach 80 with dew points nearing 60.    The lapse rates will be fairly lame, but the low-level heating and moistening should allow for CAPE values in the 1000-1500 range.   Deep-layer shear won't be awesome, but sufficient low-level shear should be available to allow for a wind threat with any storms that form along the cold front that will move through during the evening hours.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Monday has a decent setup... I'll take it. Mid-to-upper level lapse rates as mentioned aren't that great, but they usually suck around here, anyway. GFS actually has a pretty nice cap in place through the early afternoon, which could help make the storms more explosive. The NAM's cap is weaker and is gone a few hours before the GFS. NAM's low-level winds are pretty awesome, but the amount of backing at the surface is probably overdone. Definitely enough there to support severe storms.

 

Guess for when it becomes Day 1: 30% wind, 15% hail, 2% tor.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Mildly interesting tomorrow across portions of the eastern West Virginia panhandle, Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania (up in the PHL subforum area). Backed winds near a warm front and an approaching cold front could muster up some modest instability in the warm sector. Better instability across northern Virginia, but less shear to work with. As usual, the NAM is a bit more robust than the GFS. Simulated NAM radar favors a broken line of storms, strongest north of DCA toward the triple point.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

In what respect(s)?

 

I will use the 12z NAM since its out :)

 

KIAD at 21z -- Nice SBCAPE with decent ML Lapse rates of near 7.0 C/KM.  0-6km shear is okay, 30-35 kts.  LL Lapse Rate is very nice as well, over 9.0C/KM.  MLCAPE gets over 1000, which is also decent for this time of year.  EHI/SRH is okay, poss enough for an isolated tor if a cell can get discrete enough, but not likely IMO

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
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I will use the 12z NAM since its out :)

 

KIAD at 21z -- Nice SBCAPE with decent ML Lapse rates of near 7.0 C/KM.  0-6km shear is okay, 30-35 kts.  LL Lapse Rate is very nice as well, over 9.0C/KM.  MLCAPE gets over 1000, which is also decent for this time of year.  EHI/SRH is okay, poss enough for an isolated tor if a cell can get discrete enough, but not likely IMO

Would be nice to see some spin ups if we can get some sunshine.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Relevant part of LWX afternoon disco for tomorrow afternoon:

 

MONDAY...WARM FRONT CLEARS NERN MD IN THE MID-MORNING WITH LITTLE
RAIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. ADJUSTED POPS TO BE SILENT/SCHC FOR LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD BREAKS TO ALLOW
SOME SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AGREE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
AREA AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR COULD ENABLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY MDI TO UPR 70S...THOUGH MORE 80S (AND STRONGER
STORMS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT LKLY TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BLURDG AT START OF PD...AND WL
BE PUSHING EAST OF THE DELMARVA THRU THE EVNG. IN APRIL...SUNSET
TYPICALLY MARKS THE END OF ANY STRONG THUNDER THREAT...BUT GFS
SUGGESTING THAT LAPSE RATES WL STILL BE STEEP STRAIGHT THRU FROPA.
ANTICIPATE THAT TSTMS WL CONT BUT SEVERITY MAY START TO WEAKEN. WL
CARRY A LWR ORDER THUNDER THREAT.
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Ian

Ian

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BTW, are we getting remnants of an EML plume tomorrow afternoon/evening?  I am seeing some low 7's (as in 7.1 C/KM)in the ML Lapse Rates for tomorrow evening in the soundings around here and that is kind of unusual for us around here

I think it's mostly the mid-level temps are quite cold. It's still pretty early season for us.. sfc near 80 and 700mb temps near freezing is a quick change and it continues further up.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I think it's mostly the mid-level temps are quite cold. It's still pretty early season for us.. sfc near 80 and 700mb temps near freezing is a quick change and it continues further up.

 

Ah ok, thanks for the explanation... we could get some decent hailers tomorrow if we can get some discrete early IMO

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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I'm in a multi-year hail drought so I'd take pea sized pingers and call it a season at this point lol

Hail isn't all that common here.. probably because we usually have crappy lapse rates. Could see it being an 'issue' (for thousands of omg hail pics) tomorrow. The sfc low is way far removed and the timing might not be quite right with the main forcing but if we get rid of clouds etc early enough and have dropping temps aloft late day under decent CAPE we should get something.. my first thunder maybe. :D

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

Hail isn't all that common here.. probably because we usually have crappy lapse rates. Could see it being an 'issue' (for thousands of omg hail pics) tomorrow. The sfc low is way far removed and the timing might not be quite right with the main forcing but if we get rid of clouds etc early enough and have dropping temps aloft late day under decent CAPE we should get something.. my first thunder maybe. :D

The roofers JUST finished our brand new roof on Wednesday. That means we are probably in for baseball sized hail tomorrow.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Your map is matched up pretty well with the CIPS analog best tornado risk area being way south. 

 

Agree... I could see SPC placing a 5 down there in S VA/N NC at 0600... I think we go 2/15/15... maybe upgrade to 30 wind in later SPC outlooks if we clear out early enough and get some sun

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Agree... I could see SPC placing a 5 down there in S VA/N NC at 0600... I think we go 2/15/15... maybe upgrade to 30 wind in later SPC outlooks if we clear out early enough and get some sun

Analog-based tornado probs using the top severe analogs:

post-533-0-41697000-1429493997_thumb.jpg

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