Eskimo Joe Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 It was a great storm if you stayed up all night (I did). But the sleet to rain/drizzle and drip drip drip shortly after sunrise the following day flawed the event for many. The disjointed surface/ull caused too much of a gap and the ull didn't produce for a lot of folks. Not saying it wasn't a great storm because it was. But the progression wasn't the best. This radar shot isn't a classic miller A. Much better when you quickly cover the sleet/drizzle with the trailing ull. However, I won't discount how favorable the storm was for our latitude. The funny thing is if the storm occured just 6 hours later in time it would have been but high on the list by the majority here but waking up to heavy sleet and potatoes doesn't have the "pretty storm" factor. lol We haven't had a "normal" miller A since 2010. The snowfall disparatiy was pretty intense as well. IIRC, Damascus / Frederick / Mt. Airy wound up with nearly 2' of snow, while Kensington and Bowie on have 4" - 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Euro plumes for July are pretty impressive in regions 3-3.4-4. Basin wide structure still looking good but long ways to go. Interestingly (and unlike previous nino hunts of late), the 3 month lead is verifying on the high end. Here's what April plumes looked like: Most recent run looks quite impressive for now: I really don't care if we make a run at 97-98 or not. Just having a strong basin wide nino would be interesting even if winter ends up warm and/or disappointing. The analog approach this winter (assuming we go strong with an early peak) probably won't be that reliable. Sample size is way too small and there's a pretty big spread with the outcomes of the few analogs in the mix. My total WAG is this winter will end showing us another potential outcome of strong nino's compared to previous ones. Don't ask me which way (good or bad) this enso event may be in our parts. I have no idea. One thing about the previous six is that they seem to be all or none in the snowfall dept. Complete disaster or climo+ with nothing in between. But 6 events in the last 65 years doesn't really tell us a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Euro plumes for July are pretty impressive in regions 3-3.4-4. Basin wide structure still looking good but long ways to go. Interestingly (and unlike previous nino hunts of late), the 3 month lead is verifying on the high end. Here's what April plumes looked like: Most recent run looks quite impressive for now: I really don't care if we make a run at 97-98 or not. Just having a strong basin wide nino would be interesting even if winter ends up warm and/or disappointing. The analog approach this winter (assuming we go strong with an early peak) probably won't be that reliable. Sample size is way too small and there's a pretty big spread with the outcomes of the few analogs in the mix. My total WAG is this winter will end showing us another potential outcome of strong nino's compared to previous ones. Don't ask me which way (good or bad) this enso event may be in our parts. I have no idea. One thing about the previous six is that they seem to be all or none in the snowfall dept. Complete disaster or climo+ with nothing in between. But 6 events in the last 65 years doesn't really tell us a whole lot. good thoughts Bob the fact is, as tough as recent winters have been to predict, this one feels even tougher lol a lot of talk in the other forums suggest the state of the mean EPO will hold our fate, and I have to agree with that I will say that the CFS2 has been leading with a strong NINO event for some time, so I'll continue to ride it it shows our temps normal to a hair above, but a ton of pecip along the east coast.....I'll take that scenario at this point in the game and keep my fingers crossed is closer to being correct than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It's a tough one for sure Mitch. I suppose the easy part is AN precip for DJF. I would be surprised if we went dry for sure. But that isn't what we chase...lol. I'm a little skeptical of relying on the EPO. A good strong nino could easily force a neg height anomaly in the GOA regardless of the SST temps in that region. I fear the hedge with a -epo by many is based on past persistence the last 2 years + the fact the warm anoms are still running strong. It takes less to flip that around than people think. At this same time last year we were saying the same thing. SSTA's looked like this: October had a strong neg height anomaly in the GOA and SSTA's responded: However, the pattern didn't persist in Nov and reversed. Had it not done that, the GOA region + anoms would have likely completely gone away. This is simple analysis of course and there is way more to it when it comes to persistent states of the oscillations. I'm personally not sold at all that the base winter state of the epo is going to be neg. OTOH- it might not matter either way. 82-83 was a great winter here and the base state of the nao/ao/epo was + overall. Feb featured a great pattern for a time with blocking (typical feb nino I suppose) but also had a door to door +PNA state. The low height anoms in the GOA region were far enough west to not ruin winter. If we do go strong Nino, I'm not worried too much about what happened in 97-98. At least not yet. I really doubt the enso config will look like this in December. Lastly, it seems we have at least temporarily flipped to a +pdo regime. It's been gaining strength again after a relaxation this spring. Overall, the pac looks pretty darn good at this point in time. Blocking has been quite absent as of late. I kinda almost expect to struggle there for a portion of this winter. Especially early but that is a total guess. Scope and hope is all we got for many months on that subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Precip amounts trump all, at least for areas west of the BR. Give us enough precip and we usually do well in the snow dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Precip amounts trump all, at least for areas west of the BR. Give us enough precip and we usually do well in the snow dept. Yeah, you and JonJon should be cautiously excited I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I really don't care if we make a run at 97-98 or not. Just having a strong basin wide nino would be interesting even if winter ends up warm and/or disappointing. The analog approach this winter (assuming we go strong with an early peak) probably won't be that reliable. Sample size is way too small and there's a pretty big spread with the outcomes of the few analogs in the mix. My total WAG is this winter will end showing us another potential outcome of strong nino's compared to previous ones. Don't ask me which way (good or bad) this enso event may be in our parts. I have no idea. One thing about the previous six is that they seem to be all or none in the snowfall dept. Complete disaster or climo+ with nothing in between. But 6 events in the last 65 years doesn't really tell us a whole lot. Am I correct that it's three and three? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The mod/strong Niño/+QBO (E-W transition @ 50mb) winters are almost always backloaded. I think there's a good chance that December and January will torch before a flip thereafter. We've been in a generally warm regime since March, which is also a persistent feature in the +QBO/Niño analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Am I correct that it's three and three? 2 epic disasters and one that looks better on paper because of the freak vet day storm. Overall, 87-88 was a pretty lame winter. The other 3 were really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 The mod/strong Niño/+QBO (E-W transition @ 50mb) winters are almost always backloaded. I think there's a good chance that December and January will torch before a flip thereafter. We've been in a generally warm regime since March, which is also a persistent feature in the +QBO/Niño analogs. 1982-83 was a super Nino / +QBO winter, and January / February weren't far from normal temperature wise in the Mid-Atlantic. January was only slightly warmer than normal, and February near to below normal (using TTN numbers, probably even less warm relative to normal further south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 2 epic disasters and one that looks better on paper because of the freak vet day storm. Overall, 87-88 was a pretty lame winter. The other 3 were really good. Got it, thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 2 epic disasters and one that looks better on paper because of the freak vet day storm. Overall, 87-88 was a pretty lame winter. The other 3 were really good. A couple of notes: 1) 87/88 was pretty location dependent too. There was a sweet spot across the region (your current location was right on the edge of this zone) that had three separate moderate snowstorms during the season-- 11/11/87 at around 6" for immediate western suburbs, and two significant snowstorms in January '88, with the second late January snowstorm being a NW suburb special. 2) 82/83 got to impressive totals in a completely different way then 13/14 and 14/15, as many have pointed out. It was basically a three snowstorm winter iin the metro regions, with a huge gap between the first impressive December storm and the other two in February. I'm pretty sure that a majority of this subforum would be fine with a winter like 82/83-- as long as it promised that one crippling snowstorm-- after the novelty of Midwest-style winters that past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Winter's over. Don't become emotionally invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Winter's over. Don't become emotionally invested. AGW is over. Don't become emotionally invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 watch him get shafted all winter. Lol. Cancelling winter before it starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 AGW is over. Don't become emotionally invested. Whereas you are trolling, I am not. watch him get shafted all winter. Lol. Cancelling winter before it starts... Exactly. I am sane enough to understand when to bail out and DC usually goes if I go in the overall DJF average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Whereas you are trolling, I am not. Global cooling be 'cometh. Break out the mittens and firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Ermagherd! Glerble werming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Yikes! Click on "September" in the "NINO3.4 Outlook" box in the middle of the page This website updated on 4/16 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean Bump for updated 7/16 forecast, but click on December..gulp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Global cooling be 'cometh. Break out the mittens and firewood. Geoengineering watch.org must be your homepage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 today's weekly update Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24JUN2015 25.1 2.6 28.1 1.9 28.9 1.4 29.9 1.1 01JUL2015 24.9 2.7 28.0 2.0 28.9 1.4 29.8 1.0 08JUL2015 25.2 3.3 27.9 2.1 28.8 1.5 29.9 1.1 15JUL2015 24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I'd be willing to wager that this chart is going to look a lot different come March. Mudslides and people crying for their momma incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I'd be willing to wager that this chart is going to look a lot different come March. Mudslides and people crying for their momma incoming. I've been saying that for weeks now to friends and family, some who live in Los Angeles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I'd be willing to wager that this chart is going to look a lot different come March. Mudslides and people crying for their momma incoming. <DudeFromCapeMay> AGW is going to change the base atmospheric background state this winter, so it's going to roast and be bone dry in California during this Super Nino </DudeFromCapeMay> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 <DudeFromCapeMay> AGW is going to change the base atmospheric background state this winter, so it's going to roast and be bone dry in California during this Super Nino </DudeFromCapeMay> Weatherguy#s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I expect compensation when my junk is flooded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I expect compensation when my junk is flooded out.try these thenhttp://m.duluthtrading.com/store/mens/workwear/buck-naked-underwear/67019.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 So...people tracking flurries and the Siberian snowcover yet? #thistimeitsgonnaverify #probablynot #butmaybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 A lot of talk about the potential for the epo to continue it's negative base state this winter. Mostly because of the persistent warm pool in the NE Pac. I'm personally skeptical of the connection between the 2. Those warm anomalies can change fast. A partial reversal happened in Oct of last year. Nino climo almost always includes low height anomlaies and SLP in the N Pac. Persistence varies from just south of the aleutians to just off the NA coast. Obviously the former is much much preferred. And would support better odds at having +pna and or -epo periods during winter. If we don't get any help from the Atlantic, we'll have to hang out hopes on the Pac...again... Going under the assumption that the current Nino will end up a top 5 event, I made some quick epo graphs for DJF for the previous top 5 ninos (excuse the crude graphs. I did them quickly). Not very encouraging for a persistent negative state during winter. Which shouldn't be much of a surprise given what the LW pattern should look like in the N Pac during Ninos. Overall, the small data set is basically a coin flip across the board with a + state being favored. 97-98 82-83 72-73 65-66 57-58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 A lot of talk about the potential for the epo to continue it's negative base state this winter. Mostly because of the persistent warm pool in the NE Pac. I'm personally skeptical of the connection between the 2. Those warm anomalies can change fast. A partial reversal happened in Oct of last year. Nino climo almost always includes low height anomlaies and SLP in the N Pac. Persistence varies from just south of the aleutians to just off the NA coast. Obviously the former is much much preferred. And would support better odds at having +pna and or -epo periods during winter. If we don't get any help from the Atlantic, we'll have to hang out hopes on the Pac...again... Going under the assumption that the current Nino will end up a top 5 event, I made some quick epo graphs for DJF for the previous top 5 ninos (excuse the crude graphs. I did them quickly). Not very encouraging for a persistent negative state during winter. Which shouldn't be much of a surprise given what the LW pattern should look like in the N Pac during Ninos. Overall, the small data set is basically a coin flip across the board with a + state being favored. 97-98 97-98 epo.JPG 82-83 82-83 epo.JPG 72-73 72-73 epo.JPG 65-66 65-66 epo.JPG 57-58 57-58 epo.JPG interesting stuff Bob, thanks I checked the snowfall at BWI those years and starting from the top, the years looked like this: 3.2" 35.6" 1.2" 32.8" 43" In short, feast or famine. So you have to ask yourself the question.....do you feel lucky....(we know the rest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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