andyhb Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 After dying off during may-june, +PDO is rockin again. Hasn't been negative since Dec 2013. Has the regime flipped +? Tough to say but we've certainly been on a + heater for a while. Hope it holds. [ian][mark][me] How about no... [/ian][/mark][/me] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Wall to wall torch from hell most likely. If the EPO doesn't cooperate, we could compete with 2011/2012 for warmth which means we have a 6-month long Spring. LOL. Pay attention much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 It's July. Nobody cares about winter. Speak for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Mitch, if we whiff Dec-Jan waiting for Feb promised land there will be no sanity anywhere to be found. Well, except for 87storms and mattie G. I might have to put them on ignore if it goes down like that. LOL OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. Bob should be banned for that last sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Wall-to-wall icebox incoming..AGW cancel. seems legit. Having an icebox over 2% of the Earth's surface area does not equal AGW cancel. Pls try harder next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 seems legit. Having an icebox over 2% of the Earth's surface area does not equal AGW cancel. Pls try harder next time. Global cooling incoming. Stock up on mittens and firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 OT, but I saw that Anchorage, AK got less snow than I did this season. I'll pay dearly for that someday. Or maybe they're paying for 2011-12, when they got well over 100" in a record breaking season.... and we all know what happened our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Speak for yourself. I'm hardly thinking of winter these days... it usually isn't until October or November when I start getting the urge to see it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Or maybe they're paying for 2011-12, when they got well over 100" in a record breaking season.... and we all know what happened our way That was just a bad luck winter. Pure and simple. It figures the whole continental U.S. would experience heavy snow totals and we're in a little hole all to ourselves. It was payback for the 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 That was just a bad luck winter. Pure and simple. It figures the whole continental U.S. would experience heavy snow totals and we're in a little hole all to ourselves. It was payback for the 9/10 I recall much of the lower 48 being very warm, while Alaska had epic snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I recall much of the lower 48 being very warm, while Alaska had epic snow totals. We had little snow in Elko. That was the winter the big western drought began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 That was just a bad luck winter. Pure and simple. It figures the whole continental U.S. would experience heavy snow totals and we're in a little hole all to ourselves. It was payback for the 9/10 That was 2012-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I'm hardly thinking of winter these days... it usually isn't until October or November when I start getting the urge to see it snow.I have an urge all year. The only thing better than girls in bikinis, is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Nino keeps getting stronger. And unlike 97, it's basin wide vs east based. I'm jaded with lr Nino disco because it's been a real biotch trying to figure out the last few years but recent trends towards a real deal big event make you ponder the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Nino keeps getting stronger. And unlike 97, it's basin wide vs east based. I'm jaded with lr Nino disco because it's been a real biotch trying to figure out the last few years but recent trends towards a real deal big event make you ponder the possibility. CFS2 say it's warm throughout but warmest is centered in ENSO3-4. This is 1&2 prediction from the CFS2: I'm with you on it being a biotch to predict. But I think at this point it's fair to assume a strong NINO. As long as it's not centered in 1+2 like 97/98 was, I'll hold out hope. Today's SSTA map off the CFS2 is not all that bad looking at both PDO and centering of ENSO warmth, though I'd feel a whole lot better if the NINO was centered closer to the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Just to keep things in perspective, this was the 12/97 average SSTA map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Mitch, I agree. Looks like a strong event has become likely. The config and when the peak happens will just have to play out. Things look favorable for regions 3-4 to get a boost over the next month. +PDO is rockin again after fading a bit but that region is too volatile to think too far ahead. As ORH said, the natl could be a thorn for blocking but we just won't know anything. The short story is I'll gladly take my chances with a basin wide nino with a stout +pdo and just let the chips fall. I want big storms period. If we suck with temps then so be it. If we have east based with dominant +ao/nao I'll just pull the curtains down and watch TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 I can't wait for the weekly nor'easter that brings driving rain and 40 MPH gusts. Don't worry winter weenies, you'll get a chance for a sloppy half inch on the backside with temps 33-34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Mitch, I agree. Looks like a strong event has become likely. The config and when the peak happens will just have to play out. Things look favorable for regions 3-4 to get a boost over the next month. +PDO is rockin again after fading a bit but that region is too volatile to think too far ahead. As ORH said, the natl could be a thorn for blocking but we just won't know anything. The short story is I'll gladly take my chances with a basin wide nino with a stout +pdo and just let the chips fall. I want big storms period. If we suck with temps then so be it. If we have east based with dominant +ao/nao I'll just pull the curtains down and watch TV. yeah...it may end up being a year when 45 minute trips to my west will be necessary to satisfy all of my snow desires, but it should be active/wet, which will keep things "regularly" interesting if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 yeah...it may end up being a year when 45 minute trips to my west will be necessary to satisfy all of my snow desires, but it should be active/wet, which will keep things "regularly" interesting if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 so what, you're still at 86 right now and I'm only 85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 so what, you're still at 86 right now and I'm only 85! Here's hoping for a winter storm track directly over VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I recall much of the lower 48 being very warm, while Alaska had epic snow totals. Oops I was talking about 10/11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 That was 2012-13. Don't remember 12/13. How much for NYC? cutoff between New York and Philly right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Don't remember 12/13. How much for NYC? cutoff between New York and Philly right?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. It just goes to show how much the "after" of 2/13/14 sucked that a 16" event for Rockville gets lumped into the "moderate" category in our memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It just goes to show how much the "after" of 2/13/14 sucked that a 16" event for Rockville gets lumped into the "moderate" category in our memories. It was a great storm if you stayed up all night (I did). But the sleet to rain/drizzle and drip drip drip shortly after sunrise the following day flawed the event for many. The disjointed surface/ull caused too much of a gap and the ull didn't produce for a lot of folks. Not saying it wasn't a great storm because it was. But the progression wasn't the best. This radar shot isn't a classic miller A. Much better when you quickly cover the sleet/drizzle with the trailing ull. However, I won't discount how favorable the storm was for our latitude. The funny thing is if the storm occured just 6 hours later in time it would have been but high on the list by the majority here but waking up to heavy sleet and potatoes doesn't have the "pretty storm" factor. lol We haven't had a "normal" miller A since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It was a great storm if you stayed up all night (I did). But the sleet to rain/drizzle and drip drip drip shortly after sunrise the following day flawed the event for many. The disjointed surface/ull caused too much of a gap and the ull didn't produce for a lot of folks. Not saying it wasn't a great storm because it was. But the progression wasn't the best. This radar shot isn't a classic miller A. Much better when you quickly cover the sleet/drizzle with the trailing ull. However, I won't discount how favorable the storm was for our latitude. The funny thing is if the storm occured just 6 hours later in time it would have been but high on the list by the majority here but waking up to heavy sleet and potatoes doesn't have the "pretty storm" factor. lol We haven't had a "normal" miller A since 2010. Bang on the money, Bob. I stayed up for this one. The overnight rates were insane, but once the dripping started and the drizzle/mist stuck around for hours on end, it really soured the whole storm for me. The ULL barely did anything IMBY, so that just added to the letdown that I felt during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It just goes to show how much the "after" of 2/13/14 sucked that a 16" event for Rockville gets lumped into the "moderate" category in our memories. Haven't had a storm over 15" since 2011. That shows a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It was a great storm if you stayed up all night (I did). But the sleet to rain/drizzle and drip drip drip shortly after sunrise the following day flawed the event for many. The disjointed surface/ull caused too much of a gap and the ull didn't produce for a lot of folks. Not saying it wasn't a great storm because it was. But the progression wasn't the best. This radar shot isn't a classic miller A. Much better when you quickly cover the sleet/drizzle with the trailing ull. However, I won't discount how favorable the storm was for our latitude. The funny thing is if the storm occured just 6 hours later in time it would have been but high on the list by the majority here but waking up to heavy sleet and potatoes doesn't have the "pretty storm" factor. lol We haven't had a "normal" miller A since 2010. Yup, I ranked this one as behind 3/5/15 for my location even though the snow total was double, but I'm always a sucker for impact as the most important criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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