ravensrule Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 97-98 redux. If we get 3.2" you may have to ban a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 If this winter is anything like this summer, then I will be placed in a straight-jacket by the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 If this winter is anything like this summer, then I will be placed in a straight-jacket by the end of December.I honestly think that you guys near or in the mts will do best this winter, so keep the sissors handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 i'm hoping for an above average winter in terms of temps, more sun, and less wind than the previous 2 winters, with 1 big snowstorm thrown in. I don't think we ever underperform when it comes to heat or wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I'd really just like to hit average snowfall, with maybe a subzero temperature. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The burning question for this winter that can't be answered until game time is the dominant state of the ao/nao. The NAO has been on a + heater since Feb 2011. We can't afford for that to continue in a mod or possibly strong nino. History isn't too kind there. Look up the analogs at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The burning question for this winter that can't be answered until game time is the dominant state of the ao/nao. The NAO has been on a + heater since Feb 2011. We can't afford for that to continue in a mod or possibly strong nino. History isn't too kind there. Look up the analogs at your own risk.Don't worry about the ao/nao. Projections for October Siberian snow cover are looking good. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Absolutely not. I want BWI to break its all-time coldest temp and record skin-burning wind chills while feet of snow pile up November through April. I want there to be days and days of sub-freezing temps, Bay ice thick enough to drive over, and snow depths reaching uncharted territory. 100"+ or bust. i have a tendency to talk some ***t about winter, but i love a good snow i also like that we were able to have an old school cold winter the last 2 seasons. my issue was that they were just too long. both seasons were steady chilly from roughly november through march. very few breaks. in my opinion, they were the longest winters i can recall here, at least if you combine them. i think i like my winters more condensed than that. give me a mild nov/dec/march, and let it be winter jan/feb. that's all i need. it can snow on xmas, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Don't worry about the ao/nao. Projections for October Siberian snow cover are looking good. MDstorm We'll probably have very low snowcover in Oct and the index will nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 i have a tendency to talk some ***t about winter, but i love a good snow i also like that we were able to have an old school cold winter the last 2 seasons. my issue was that they were just too long. both seasons were steady chilly from roughly november through march. very few breaks. in my opinion, they were the longest winters i can recall here, at least if you combine them. i think i like my winters more condensed than that. give me a mild nov/dec/march, and let it be winter jan/feb. that's all i need. it can snow on xmas, though. You're in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The burning question for this winter that can't be answered until game time is the dominant state of the ao/nao. The NAO has been on a + heater since Feb 2011. We can't afford for that to continue in a mod or possibly strong nino. History isn't too kind there. Look up the analogs at your own risk. that's why winters like 82/83 maintain sanity with this weenie at this point in the game pretty positive NAO through the winter with one brief, weak -NAO in early FEB, but December delivered with a 6-8" surprise and then, of course, the 83 Megalopolis storm thanks to the brief, weak -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 that's why winters like 82/83 maintain sanity with this weenie at this point in the game pretty positive NAO through the winter with one brief, weak -NAO in early FEB, but December delivered with a 6-8" surprise and then, of course, the 83 Megalopolis storm thanks to the brief, weak -NAO Mitch, if we whiff Dec-Jan waiting for Feb promised land there will be no sanity anywhere to be found. Well, except for 87storms and mattie G. I might have to put them on ignore if it goes down like that. LOL OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Mitch, if we whiff Dec-Jan waiting for Feb promised land there will be no sanity anywhere to be found. Well, except for 87storms and mattie G. I might have to put them on ignore if it goes down like that. LOL OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. when I referred to "my sanity", I was using the phrase loosely lol I too would love to see a big one, and the strength of the coming NINO at least increases our chances for that, but I won't toss out anything greater than an inch if it's all we can muster my bigger concern is that the chances of snow will likely be greatly diminished from the past 2 years, which will make for a long, boring insanity, the worst kind in my feeble mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Mitch, if we whiff Dec-Jan waiting for Feb promised land there will be no sanity anywhere to be found. Well, except for 87storms and mattie G. I might have to put them on ignore if it goes down like that. LOL OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. That pretty much happened this past winter, and, thankfully, February delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Most had melted by that point. In a region where the only guarantee is that we're always in play for getting screwed, I'm not about to get excited for less chances and more uncertainty...in February... February is typically our biggest snow month, especially during Niños. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 That pretty much happened this past winter, and, thankfully, February delivered. The despair thread did look pretty silly by the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 After dying off during may-june, +PDO is rockin again. Hasn't been negative since Dec 2013. Has the regime flipped +? Tough to say but we've certainly been on a + heater for a while. Hope it holds. A robust +pdo could help offset potential negative effects *IF* we go mod/strong or east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 After dying off during may-june, +PDO is rockin again. Hasn't been negative since Dec 2013. Has the regime flipped +? Tough to say but we've certainly been on a + heater for a while. Hope it holds. A robust +pdo could help offset potential negative effects *IF* we go mod/strong or east based. The very cold N Atlantic cold pool that has been developing since spring 2013 doesn't give high hopes for a -NAO. Hopefully it doesn't end up inhibiting too much, but there is definitely a bit of headwind with that sitting there. But on the flipside, the very warm GOA gives us a tailwind for a +PNA/-EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The very cold N Atlantic cold pool that has been developing since spring 2013 doesn't give high hopes for a -NAO. Hopefully it doesn't end up inhibiting too much, but there is definitely a bit of headwind with that sitting there. But on the flipside, the very warm GOA gives us a tailwind for a +PNA/-EPO and where the seasonal boundary between the warm and cold sets up due to those opposing forces is anyone's guess at this point but south of you is probably a good guess....congrats again lucky bastid! I still say Worcester is the best snow town in the east, hands down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 The very cold N Atlantic cold pool that has been developing since spring 2013 doesn't give high hopes for a -NAO. Hopefully it doesn't end up inhibiting too much, but there is definitely a bit of headwind with that sitting there. But on the flipside, the very warm GOA gives us a tailwind for a +PNA/-EPO Quite the switch on the dominant nao state we saw years prior to 2013. It's been a stubborn bastard and we need it negative during a nino a lot more than you guys. The pac saved us 2 years in a row down here. Attempting to overcome another +nao winter is probably too much to ask for our region. Long way to go before getting hung up on that stuff. Or hung up on anything really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 First call for seasonal snow: RIC: 0.0" DCA: -2.1" IAD: 4.2" BWI: 3.9" Lowest temps: RIC: 28F DCA: 31.9F IAD: 15F because it's IAD BWI: 26F The above lows will most likely occur in a record-breaking October cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 First call for seasonal snow: RIC: 0.0" DCA: -2.1" IAD: 4.2" BWI: 3.9" Lowest temps: RIC: 28F DCA: 31.9F IAD: 15F because it's IAD BWI: 26F The above lows will most likely occur in a record-breaking October cold outbreak. I often wondered how DC would fair if they treated snowfall reports like employment reports with their revisions of prior months I think you nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. Thank god and welcome back to the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Quite the switch on the dominant nao state we saw years prior to 2013. It's been a stubborn bastard and we need it negative during a nino a lot more than you guys. The pac saved us 2 years in a row down here. Attempting to overcome another +nao winter is probably too much to ask for our region. Long way to go before getting hung up on that stuff. Or hung up on anything really. Not just you guys, anyone south of about central New England is in trouble if there is another +NAO/+AO winter along with a strong or super El Niño, especially if it's east-based. The flip to a severely negative AMO does not give much hope for Greenland blocking this winter. I'm not sure even a +PDO/-EPO/+PNA would help if there is a very strong Nino in place. I would think ENSO would be so overwhelming with a roaring subtropical jet, that it would just override the PNA and EPO blocking in the west. Region 3.4 just passed the strong threshold of +1.5C this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 i'm living here now. winter will never happen again. my presence jinxs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Mitch, if we whiff Dec-Jan waiting for Feb promised land there will be no sanity anywhere to be found. Well, except for 87storms and mattie G. I might have to put them on ignore if it goes down like that. LOL OTOH- I'm kinda in big storm chase mode now. I've had my fill of small/mod events + extended cold the last 2 winters. lol well basically you are chasing what i am as well which is a big storm. i really don't care for a long winter this time around. like i've said before, if i wanted that i'd move to boston. i like that we're predominantly mild here. blizzard or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 It's July. Nobody cares about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Wall to wall torch from hell most likely. If the EPO doesn't cooperate, we could compete with 2011/2012 for warmth which means we have a 6-month long Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Maybe I'll be able to grow cool-weather veggies all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Wall to wall torch from hell most likely. If the EPO doesn't cooperate, we could compete with 2011/2012 for warmth which means we have a 6-month long Spring. Wall-to-wall icebox incoming..AGW cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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